{"id":559284,"date":"2021-01-17T03:52:01","date_gmt":"2021-01-17T03:52:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/"},"modified":"2021-01-17T03:52:01","modified_gmt":"2021-01-17T03:52:01","slug":"no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/","title":{"rendered":"No rate cuts soon, Capital Economics predicts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-05\"><\/a> <strong>The Central Bank of Egypt will hold off on resuming its monetary <\/strong><strong>easing cycle \u201cfor much of this year\u201d<\/strong> <strong>due to rising inflation<\/strong>, James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Wednesday. Rising food and fuel costs over the next 6-9 months will prevent the central bank from lowering rates further, but a fall in headline inflation in 4Q \u201cshould open the door\u201d to more rate cuts, he wrote. The research firm expects the CBE to enact 150 bps of cuts by the end of 2022.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Headline inflation will peak at 7% in 3Q2020<\/strong>, at the midpoint of the CBE\u2019s new inflation target of 7% (+\/-2), before falling to the lower bound of the target range until the end of next year, Swanston wrote. Inflation has been gradually rising from near-record lows over the past six months, <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/790c7907-afb4-4e0c-9338-260b3db35554\">coming in at 5.7% in November<\/a> before falling back slightly to <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d0d5a197-b4a0-48fd-9884-ef50416da06e\">5.4% in December<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Food inflation will accelerate through the year:<\/strong> Although prices <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d0d5a197-b4a0-48fd-9884-ef50416da06e\">fell 1.2% in December<\/a>, this is likely to end as the favorable base effect phases out. This will intensify if the recent pick-up in global prices continues.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Look for fuel prices to rise:<\/strong> Capital Economics expects global crude oil prices to continue rising, which will likely result in the fuel pricing committee raising prices later in the year. The committee <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b78d6f10-5c2d-40a4-aef9-3e53fb3a5466\">left prices on hold for 1Q2021<\/a> in its first meeting of the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The FX rate could settle at EGP 16 \/ USD 1<\/strong> by the end of 2021, from its current rate of EGP 15.60, Capital Economics says. The outfit cites the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d0f0225e-15bb-41ec-b441-e7f0beb52b47\">IMF\u2019s latest review of Egypt\u2019s standby loan<\/a> in which they suggested policymakers should allow greater rate flexibility as an indicator the EGP could be slightly overvalued.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Central Bank of Egypt will hold off on resuming its monetary easing cycle \u201cfor much of this year\u201d due to rising inflation, James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Wednesday. Rising food and fuel costs over the next 6-9 months will prevent the central bank from lowering rates further, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":559285,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9947],"tags":[1433,271,72,182,9946],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-559284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-outlook","tag-capital-economics","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-outlook","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1472fcf1-cc06-41e5-ba91-9d3d512021c9","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/186.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[559275],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>No rate cuts soon, Capital Economics predicts - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No rate cuts soon, Capital Economics predicts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt will hold off on resuming its monetary easing cycle \u201cfor much of this year\u201d due to rising inflation, James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Wednesday. Rising food and fuel costs over the next 6-9 months will prevent the central bank from lowering rates further, [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-01-17T03:52:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/186.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"No rate cuts soon, Capital Economics predicts\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-01-17T03:52:01+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/\"},\"wordCount\":291,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/186.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Capital Economics\",\"Central Bank of Egypt\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"inflation\",\"OUTLOOK\"],\"articleSection\":[\"OUTLOOK\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/\",\"name\":\"No rate cuts soon, Capital Economics predicts - 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Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.2% during the month, slightly slower than the 13.5% rate of growth we\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/161.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574907,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/27\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-50-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":559284,"position":1},"title":"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 50 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Central Bank of Egypt surprises with first rate cut since March: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday \u2014 the first since the emergency 300 bps rate cut in March, the central bank said in a statement (pdf). The move was a surprise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550015,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/11\/egypt-inflation-hits-new-four-year-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":559284,"position":2},"title":"Egypt inflation hits new four-year high","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation accelerated again in September as price shocks continue to linger, according to CAPMAS figures (pdf). Urban consumer price inflation rose to 15.0% y-o-y in September, up from 14.6 % last month, amid an ongoing surge in living costs fuelled by the war in Ukraine and a weaker EGP. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594319,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/egypt-to-be-the-regions-star-performer-in-2020-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":559284,"position":3},"title":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics: Egypt will be the MENA region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 as the central bank continues to cut interest rates and the government loosens fiscal policy, William Jackson, chief EM economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Thursday. GDP will grow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/660.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594912,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":559284,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year low in August, confounding expectations: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in July, a low not seen January 2013, official data showed yesterday. Figures released by Capmas showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548518,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/11\/inflation-hits-new-three-year-high-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":559284,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits new three-year high in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation resumed its upward trend in July, reaching a fresh three-year high on the back of higher food and fuel prices, according to official figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf). Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.6% y-o-y in July, up from 13.2% in June when prices unexpectedly cooled\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/216.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=559284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559284\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/559275"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/559285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=559284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=559284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=559284"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=559284"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=559284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}