{"id":559124,"date":"2021-01-11T03:45:20","date_gmt":"2021-01-11T03:45:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/11\/a-little-bit-limp\/"},"modified":"2021-01-11T03:45:20","modified_gmt":"2021-01-11T03:45:20","slug":"a-little-bit-limp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/11\/a-little-bit-limp\/","title":{"rendered":"A little bit limp"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Annual <\/strong>urban <\/strong>headline inflation dropped to <\/strong>5.4% in December from 5.7%<\/strong> in November<\/strong>, according to figures released Sunday by state statistics agency Capmas (pdf)<\/a> and the central bank (pdf)<\/a>. On a monthly basis, prices fell at their quickest pace since June 2019<\/a> as falling food and beverage prices resulted in 0.4% deflation following 0.8% growth in November. The story is also getting a nod from Bloomberg<\/a> and Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Food prices fell 1.2% during the month<\/strong>, having edged up 3.2% in November<\/a>, despite seasonal spending during the winter holidays. The price of vegetables fell 10% on average during the month, compared to the 25% price growth seen in November.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation <\/strong>\u2014 which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 fell to <\/strong>3.8% in December<\/strong> compared to 4.0% in November 2020. Monthly core inflation remained flat during the month from November.<\/p>\n

Annual <\/strong>general <\/strong>inflation for 2020 came in at 5.1%<\/strong>, down from 8.5% in 2019, Capmas said. The rate, which came in below the central bank\u2019s target inflation range of 6-12%, triggered consultations with the IMF under the standby loan agreed last year. In response, the central bank has proposed that it lowers its target rate by two percentage points to 7%<\/a> and narrows its range to +\/-2%.<\/p>\n

Expect inflation to remain within the 5-6.5% range in 1H2021 before accelerating in the back-half of the year<\/strong> to anywhere between 6 and 7.5%, Pharos\u2019 Sandy Eskaros said in a note yesterday. This scenario would see inflation averaging 5.1% by the end of FY2020-2021, and 5.7% by the end of calendar year 2021 to remain within the CBE\u2019s new target range. Meanwhile, Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh is forecasting inflation to remain within the bank\u2019s new target range on average through to 4Q2022.<\/p>\n

So are we gonna see interest rate cuts? <\/strong>With inflation accelerating throughout 4Q2020, the CBE is now expected to resume its monetary easing cycle this year, albeit cautiously, Eskaros writes. \u201cWe forecast a total of 200 bps of interest rate cuts in 2021, spaced out on different MPC meetings in response to the relevant monetary conditions.\u201d Mamdouh expects the bank to make a 50 bps cut in its March meeting after leaving rates on hold next month.<\/p>\n

The CBE <\/strong>left interest rates unchanged<\/a><\/strong> at its December meeting<\/strong>, citing rising inflation and global concern over the spread of new covid-19 variants. The hold followed two consecutive 50 bps rate cuts in each of November<\/a> and September. With the record 300 bps cut<\/a> in March, policymakers cut rates a total of 400 bps last year.<\/p>\n

The central bank will next meet to review rates on 4 February.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Still eking out growth<\/p>\n

Egypt will remain the only MENA country to continue its pre-covid growth trend in<\/strong> 2021<\/strong> thanks to the government\u2019s economic reform program over the past four years, Moody\u2019s said in a research note<\/a> last week. While Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan have benefited from IMF lending programs, most MENA and Levant countries will continue to suffer from high debt ratios that will negatively impact their sovereign creditworthiness. Limited access to international credit markets (as in the case of Tunisia and Iraq) as well as a muted tourism sector will continue to strain economies.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s expects a gradual recovery in GDP growth to 2.2% on average in the region<\/strong> this year following the 3.4% contraction in 2020.<\/p>\n

Who else sees continued growth for Egypt:<\/strong> With vaccination programs expected to accelerate the global economic recovery<\/a> in the coming year, the IMF<\/strong> has just bumped up its FY2020-2021 projections<\/a> to 2.8% from the 2% it forecast in June<\/a>. Fitch <\/strong>thinks we\u2019re on track<\/a> to grow at an average 4% clip over each of the coming four years, and the EBRD<\/a> has penciled in an ambitious 5% growth for calendar year 2021. Looking further ahead, t<\/strong>he World Bank<\/strong> says Egypt\u2019s economy will return<\/a> to pre-pandemic growth levels as of FY2021-2022, while Renaissance Capital<\/a><\/strong> recently predicted 2.8% growth in 2021, followed by a resurgence to 5% growth in 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual urban headline inflation dropped to 5.4% in December from 5.7% in November, according to figures released Sunday by state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central bank (pdf). On a monthly basis, prices fell at their quickest pace since June 2019 as falling food and beverage prices resulted in 0.4% deflation following 0.8% growth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":559125,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[7106,571,104,72,3637,272,182,1324,1982,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-559124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-debt","tag-ebrd","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-solutions","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-moodys","tag-renaissance-capital","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d0d5a197-b4a0-48fd-9884-ef50416da06e","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/109.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[559120],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nA little bit limp - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/11\/a-little-bit-limp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A little bit limp\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual urban headline inflation dropped to 5.4% in December from 5.7% in November, according to figures released Sunday by state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central bank (pdf). 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On a month-on-month basis, urban\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/181.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":553861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/12\/urban-inflation-dips-to-lowest-level-since-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":559124,"position":4},"title":"Urban inflation dips to lowest level since July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation slowed for the second month running in November as pressure on food prices continued to ease, according to official figures released on Thursday. The headline rate fell to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/291.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549270,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/11\/inflation-hits-highest-level-since-november-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":559124,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits highest level since November 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation accelerated in August to reach a near-four-year high on the back of higher food and beverage prices, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas(pdf) on Thursday. Urban consumer prices grew at a 14.6% y-o-y clip, compared with 13.6% in July, marking the highest recorded figure since November 2018\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/179.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=559124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559124\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/559120"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/559125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=559124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=559124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=559124"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=559124"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=559124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}