{"id":559054,"date":"2021-01-06T03:45:01","date_gmt":"2021-01-06T03:45:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/06\/the-2020s-%e2%89%a0-the-1930s-but\/"},"modified":"2021-01-06T03:45:01","modified_gmt":"2021-01-06T03:45:01","slug":"the-2020s-%e2%89%a0-the-1930s-but","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/06\/the-2020s-%e2%89%a0-the-1930s-but\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2020s \u2260 the 1930s, but..."},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Global growth is expected to be slightly lower than previously expected<\/strong> as cases<\/strong> continue to accelerate in advanced economies<\/strong>, the World Bank has said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report. Output will likely expand 4% in 2021, down from a 4.2% the Bank had forecast in its June report, before slowing to 3.8% in 2022.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the optimistic scenario. What do they have for the bears? <\/strong>An \u201cexceptional level of uncertainty\u201d caused by the trajectory of the pandemic and the global vaccine rollout mean that growth could come in at just 1.6%. \"In a more severe downside scenario including widespread financial stress, global growth could even be negative in 2021,\" it said.<\/p>\n

After 2020 any growth is welcome \u2014 but the threat of a \u201clost decade\u201d is real:<\/strong> Ayhan Kose, the bank\u2019s acting vice president for equitable growth and financial institutions, told the Wall Street Journal<\/a> that the actions of policymakers in the months ahead will shape the decade to come. \u201cIf history is any guide, unless there is substantial reform, we think the global economy is headed for a decade of disappointing growth outcomes,\u201d he said. \u201cThe world can\u2019t wait for everyone to be vaccinated to inoculate the global economy against another lost decade for growth \u2026 that means policy makers need to act and act aggressively to get ahead of the pandemic.\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the prognosis for Egypt? <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s economy is forecast to end the current fiscal year on 30 June with 2.7% growth, the World Bank said. Growth will be milder than the 3.6% recorded last fiscal year, but higher than previous forecasts of 2.3% and 2.1% the lender had penciled in October<\/a> and June<\/a>. The economy has avoided sliding into contraction thanks to reforms, solid policy buffers, \u201cresilient\u201d consumption patterns, international help, and mega-projects, but nonetheless has been \u201cheavily disrupted\u201d by covid-19. The collapse in tourism, natural gas extractives, and manufacturing dampened growth which will remain subdued until FY2021-2022 when the bank forecasts a return to pre-pandemic growth levels of 5.8%.<\/p>\n

MENA faces \u201clasting economic scars\u201d: <\/strong>The region is estimated to have contracted 5% in 2020, largely driven by both the pandemic-induced disruption and the collapse in oil prices and demand. Growth is forecast to rebound to 2.1% this year, provided the pandemic is tamed, global oil demand rises, geopolitical tensions are calmed, balance of payments remain stable, and policymakers continue to lend a helping hand. Despite this, the pandemic will cause long-term damage to productivity and capital accumulation, dampening economic growth in the years ahead.<\/p>\n

The region\u2019s oil-importers (including Egypt) are expected to bounce back with 3.2% <\/strong>growth in 2021<\/strong> after collectively contracting 2.2% last year, but at the beginning of 2022 will remain 9% below levels projected at the start of the decade. Importers will be held back by \u201ctepid investment,\u201d contracting exports and industrial output, weak public finances limiting scope for stimulus, and reliance on tourism.<\/p>\n

Oil exporters face a slower recovery:<\/strong> The bank expects growth among oil exporters to reach 1.8% in 2021 having contracted 5.7% last year. It expects the global vaccine rollout to finally put an end to the need for lockdowns, which will help to normalize oil demand. But the potential for delays in vaccination programs, further waves of covid outbreaks, and a sustained downturn in oil prices pose \u201csignificant risks\u201d ahead.<\/p>\n

From the EM-verse: <\/strong>The bank estimates output in emerging markets to have shrunk 2.6% in 2020, slightly worse than June\u2019s expectations for a 2.5% contraction. The pandemic is expected to \u201cinflict long-term damage\u201d on EM growth prospects by putting a damper on investment and human capital, it said. Growth in EMs will, however, improve to a robust 5% in 2021, and will continue to outpace advanced economies the following year, helped by China, which is expected to grow 7.9% after having already been the only major economy to avoid contraction.<\/p>\n

You can read the <\/strong>full report<\/a><\/strong> here (pdf), or visit <\/strong>the landing page here<\/a><\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global growth is expected to be slightly lower than previously expected as cases continue to accelerate in advanced economies, the World Bank has said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report. Output will likely expand 4% in 2021, down from a 4.2% the Bank had forecast in its June report, before slowing to 3.8% in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":559055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[107,104,72,527,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-559054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-covid-19","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-pandemic","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d5d167b4-df65-474f-a648-83381ce307c0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/71.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[559046],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe 2020s \u2260 the 1930s, but... - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/06\/the-2020s-\u2260-the-1930s-but\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The 2020s \u2260 the 1930s, but...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global growth is expected to be slightly lower than previously expected as cases continue to accelerate in advanced economies, the World Bank has said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report. 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In its latest MENA economic update,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/203.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542702,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/12\/good-news-on-the-economy-front-the-world-bank-thinks-were-going-to-grow-faster-this-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":559054,"position":2},"title":"Good news on the economy front: The World Bank thinks we\u2019re going to grow faster this year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The World Bank has revised upwards its prediction for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points to 5.5% for FY2021-2022. The bank said in October that it expected growth to come in at 5.0%, but in its latest Global Economic Prospects report hiked its forecast, citing rising exports, growth in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/137.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562867,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/09\/world-bank-sees-egypt-economy-growing-4-5-in-2021-2022-down-a-bit-from-earlier-projection\/","url_meta":{"origin":559054,"position":3},"title":"World Bank sees Egypt economy growing 4.5% in 2021-2022, down a bit from earlier projection","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The World Bank has downgraded its growth projections for the Egyptian economy in the coming fiscal year, citing \u201csluggish\u201d activity as the effects of the covid-19 pandemic linger. In an update to its Egypt forecast, the bank sees GDP growing at a 2.3% clip during the state\u2019s current 2020-2021, down\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/129.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566601,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/29\/ebrd-is-a-bit-more-optimistic-about-our-growth-prospects\/","url_meta":{"origin":559054,"position":4},"title":"EBRD is a bit more optimistic about our growth prospects","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 4.5% in FY2021-2022, says EBRD in June update: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) sees economic growth in Egypt slowing down to 2.5% in the state\u2019s ongoing fiscal year, which ends on 1 July, before recovering to 4.5% in FY2021-2022, the bank said in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543602,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/09\/tourism-recovery-gas-exports-driving-5-5-growth-this-fiscal-year-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":559054,"position":5},"title":"Tourism recovery + gas exports driving 5.5% growth this fiscal year -World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"World Bank says tourism rebound, gas exports driving strong growth in Egypt: The World Bank has laid out the drivers for its January prediction that our economy will grow5.5% in FY2021-2022, pointing to a recovery in the tourism sector and rising gas exports. \u201cA gradual return of tourists, continued growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/116.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=559054"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559054\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/559046"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/559055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=559054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=559054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=559054"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=559054"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=559054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}