{"id":557421,"date":"2021-09-19T04:00:06","date_gmt":"2021-09-19T04:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/19\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-seventh-consecutive-meeting\/"},"modified":"2021-09-19T04:00:06","modified_gmt":"2021-09-19T04:00:06","slug":"cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-seventh-consecutive-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/19\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-seventh-consecutive-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE leaves rates on hold for seventh consecutive meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left<\/strong> interest rates on hold for a seventh consecutive meeting<\/strong> on Thursday. Overnight deposit and lending rates were left unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main operation and discount rates remained at 8.75%, the central bank said in a statement (pdf)<\/a> following the meeting.<\/p>\n

All 10 analysts <\/strong>we surveyed before the meeting<\/a><\/strong> saw this coming: <\/strong>The analysts expected the CBE to maintain its cautious approach and hold rates as it monitors the uptick in inflation, as well as the effect of possible US tapering on the appeal of Egyptian debt to global investors, who have been a key source of foreign currency.<\/p>\n

The message on inflation: Keep calm.<\/strong> Annual headline inflation is well within the committee\u2019s inflation target of 7%( \u00b12%) on average by 4Q2022, and is consistent with price stability over the medium term. International food and commodity prices remain at multi-year highs, the CBE noted. Rising food and energy prices pushed annual urban inflation to its highest level since November in August, rising slightly to 5.7%<\/a> from 5.4% in July<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Global inflation putting CBE on guard? <\/strong>Global food prices resumed their climb in August after witnessing a retreat in June and July, while factory closures and supply chain issues off the back of the delta variant have driven up commodity prices, putting the CBE on guard over stimulating inflation through a rate cut, said Prime Holding\u2019s Mona Bedeir.<\/p>\n

More importantly: <\/strong>The CBE wants to keep rates high ahead of possible US tapering<\/strong>.<\/strong> The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to start reducing its covid monetary stimulus later this year in a move that will push up US rates and potentially put pressure on the EGP carry trade. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait took to Bloomberg<\/a> earlier this month to reassure investors about the impact of rising rates on Egypt\u2019s borrowing costs, emphasizing Egypt\u2019s experience facing capital market volatility and the ministry\u2019s preparedness for outflows.<\/p>\n

The rate hold leaves us with one of the highest real rates in the world:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s real interest rate is the highest among more than 50 economies tracked by Bloomberg, the business news information service said last week<\/a>. This will provide a buffer against rising US rates<\/strong>, S&P Global Ratings said in a recent report<\/a>. \u201cCompared with some other emerging markets, we think Egypt may fare somewhat better in the event of US interest rate hikes, mainly due to high real interest rates,\u201d the ratings agency wrote.<\/p>\n

Foreign holdings of Egyptian domestic debt increased to a <\/strong>record USD 33 bn<\/a><\/strong> at the beginning of August as the country\u2019s real interest rate kept yield-hungry investors buying into the local market. Inflows have surged by some USD 23 bn since the sell-off from emerging-markets triggered by the pandemic last year, during which holdings of EGP bonds fell.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe believe Egyptian treasuries will remain attractive, underpinned by EGP stability and <\/strong><\/sup>maintained real interest rates<\/strong> given the low inflation,\u201d Beltone wrote in a note following the meeting. \u201cAmong emerging markets with comparable yields, Egypt still stands out with a relatively less impacted economy from the repercussions of the covid-19 pandemic as it provides growth potential.\u201d<\/p>\n

Covid-19 may still present headwinds: <\/strong>Though the CBE noted that global economic activity was continuing to bounce back from the effects of the pandemic and monetary policy remained largely accommodative the world over, it warned that \u201cprospects of global economic recovery remain contingent on the efficacy of vaccines and the ability of countries to contain the spread of the virus.\u201d<\/p>\n

The MPC remains optimistic <\/strong>saying that \u201cleading indicators point towards a sustained strong pick-up across most sectors,\u201d reflected in the GDP growth of 7.7% in 2Q2021 rebounding from last year\u2019s -1.7%.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead: <\/strong>Inflation is likely to fall below the CBE\u2019s target range by the end of the year, and to remain subdued going forward, prompting further easing to an overnight deposit rate of 6.75% by the end of 2022, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanson wrote in a<\/a>research note<\/a>. Prime Holding\u2019s Bedeir and Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Khalid also see the central bank holding rates till at least the beginning of 2022.<\/p>\n

The Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee is set to next meet on 28 October<\/strong>, and will meet once more on 16 December before the year is out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates on hold for a seventh consecutive meeting on Thursday. Overnight deposit and lending rates were left unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main operation and discount rates remained at 8.75%, the central bank said in a statement (pdf) following the meeting. 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The bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/169.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556550,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":557421,"position":1},"title":"Egypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation,","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. The Monetary Policy Committee left overnight deposit and lending rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/320.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592417,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/06\/cbe-makes-surprise-100-bps-rate-hike\/","url_meta":{"origin":557421,"position":2},"title":"CBE makes surprise 100-bps rate hike","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Analysts had expected the central bank to keep rates on hold","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/206.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":557421,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/05\/cbe-keeps-rates-on-hold-in-surprise-move\/","url_meta":{"origin":557421,"position":4},"title":"CBE keeps rates on hold in surprise move","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE unexpectedly holds interest rates steady in its first meeting of the year: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, defying expectations of a third consecutive hike. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 16.25%, the lending rate at 17.25%, and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/66.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569366,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/23\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-second-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":557421,"position":5},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, citing inflation and macro headwinds, according to an official statement (pdf). Uptick in inflation a key factor in the CBE\u2019s decision: The CBE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557421"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557421\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/557415"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/557422"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557421"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=557421"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=557421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}