{"id":557081,"date":"2021-09-06T04:00:17","date_gmt":"2021-09-06T04:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/06\/can-egypt-weather-a-taper-tantrum-2-0\/"},"modified":"2021-09-06T04:00:17","modified_gmt":"2021-09-06T04:00:17","slug":"can-egypt-weather-a-taper-tantrum-2-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/06\/can-egypt-weather-a-taper-tantrum-2-0\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Egypt weather a taper tantrum 2.0?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt\u2019s world-beating real interest rate will help it weather an uptick in global rates<\/strong>, but the country faces some risk from capital outflows unless it acts to reduce its debt costs, S&P Global Ratings said in a report yesterday<\/sup>. Despite enjoying the highest real interest rate in the world, a rise in rates in the developed world could leave Egypt vulnerable to outflows if markets seen offering relatively lower risk start hiking rates.<\/p>\n

Taper tantrum 2.0: <\/strong>We could be at risk of outflows if the Federal Reserve starts to unwind its bond-buying programme sooner than expected. Statements<\/a> by Fed head Jerome Powell last month signalled that the central bank could begin rolling back its program as early as this year, which would be followed by an uptick in interest rates, potentially putting some pressure on the EGP carry trade. But a poor US jobs report out at the end of last week has pundits saying the Fed could wait a while longer.<\/p>\n

Our high interest rates will help stem the tide:<\/strong> \u201cCompared with some other emerging markets, we think Egypt may fare somewhat better in the event of US interest rate hikes<\/strong>, mainly due to high real interest rate,\u201d Gupta wrote, citing the high returns, foreign reserve accumulation and the USD exchange rate, which has seen slight gains for the EGP. Egypt also has stronger policy credibility than other EMs<\/strong> and it\u2019s positive growth outlook also counts in its favor.<\/p>\n

Egypt has a sizable foreign reserves stockpile, which should help it avoid serious capital outflows<\/strong>. We have managed to recoup more than half of the almost USD 10 bn deployed in response to the initial wave of the pandemic last year, last month reaching nearly USD 40.6 bn<\/a>. Reserves eased close to USD 35 bn during the peak of the covid-19-induced global pullback from emerging markets.<\/p>\n

S&P is concerned about the possible impact of a sustained pullback in tourism: <\/strong>\u201cWe could see elevated balance-of-payment risks for Egypt if there were a sharp withdrawal of funds while current account receipts remained weak owing to pandemic-related damage to tourism and export receipts,\u201d Gupta wrote. \u201cThis could result in a substantial decline in foreign exchange reserves and reduce Egypt\u2019s ability to service its debt.\u201d<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s high real rates are both a blessing\u2026 <\/strong>One of the key policy goals of the Central Bank of Egypt has been to maintain high real interest rates, which has enabled it to attract bns of USD in portfolio inflows and stockpile foreign reserves. Portfolio investment has been an important source of hard currency for Egypt since the onset of the pandemic, which caused tourism receipts to tank and heavily disrupted export and Suez Canal revenues.<\/p>\n

\u2026and a challenge:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s rates means that it currently has one of the highest debt service burdens among countries with B+ ratings and lower, while its interest payments as a proportion of GDP are among the highest in the world.<\/p>\n

The government is working to lower its debt costs<\/strong>, embarking on a debt reduction strategy that includes decreasing reliance on short-term debt in favour of longer-term debt, and diversifying its funding sources to include eurobonds<\/a>, sovereign sukuk<\/a> and green bonds<\/a>. The addition of passive flows via the inclusion in the new FTSE Russell bond index<\/a>, and the possible addition of the JPMorgan index<\/a> later this year will lower volatility.<\/p>\n

Egypt could help bring down yields by increasing confidence in the economy:<\/strong> Investors will likely reduce the interest they demand on sovereign debt should the government deliver strong economic performance and policy credibility, Gupta wrote. This would allow the government to reduce its debt servicing costs without jeopardizing capital inflows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s world-beating real interest rate will help it weather an uptick in global rates, but the country faces some risk from capital outflows unless it acts to reduce its debt costs, S&P Global Ratings said in a report yesterday. Despite enjoying the highest real interest rate in the world, a rise in rates in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":557082,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[82,2082,271,104,72,349,125,100,1631],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-557081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-bonds","tag-carry-trade","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-investment-watch","tag-policy","tag-sp-global-ratings","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f4a72ffd-c098-4dbf-9efb-a900f320faf8","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/72.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[557075],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCan Egypt weather a taper tantrum 2.0? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/06\/can-egypt-weather-a-taper-tantrum-2-0\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Egypt weather a taper tantrum 2.0?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s world-beating real interest rate will help it weather an uptick in global rates, but the country faces some risk from capital outflows unless it acts to reduce its debt costs, S&P Global Ratings said in a report yesterday. 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Policymakers are \u201cclosely monitoring\u201d the potential effects of rising US rates on Egypt\u2019s borrowing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554578,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/sp-trims-em-growth-outlook-for-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":557081,"position":1},"title":"S&P trims EM growth outlook for 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets are walking into the new year with a lower growth outlook from S&P Global Ratings, which revised downwards its growth forecast for emerging markets by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. The ratings agency attributes the revision to the pandemic\u2019s overstay and a slowdown in China for the downgrade,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/677.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":560968,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/21\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":557081,"position":2},"title":"CBE leaves interest rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave rates unchanged for a third consecutive time during its meeting on Thursday, accounting for the possibility of a further uptick of global commodity prices, the bank said in a statement (pdf). Overnight deposit and lending rates remain\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/254.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":560789,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":557081,"position":3},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday: Rising global commodity prices and a pick-up in US treasury yields will likely mean that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566582,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/28\/ems-have-every-right-to-worry-about-capital-outflows\/","url_meta":{"origin":557081,"position":4},"title":"EMs have every right to worry about capital outflows","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Are foreign reserves enough to protect EMs from capital outflows? Not really, argues Reserve Bank of India\u2019s former governor Duvvuri Subbarao in an op-ed for the Financial Times. For years, India has been building up its USD stock \u2014 and many have started to take for granted that, since the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557421,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/19\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-seventh-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":557081,"position":5},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for seventh consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates on hold for a seventh consecutive meeting on Thursday. Overnight deposit and lending rates were left unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main operation and discount rates remained at 8.75%, the central bank said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/247.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557081\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/557075"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/557082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557081"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=557081"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=557081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}