{"id":556550,"date":"2021-10-31T04:00:34","date_gmt":"2021-10-31T04:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/"},"modified":"2021-10-31T04:00:34","modified_gmt":"2021-10-31T04:00:34","slug":"egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation,"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an <\/strong>eighth <\/strong>consecutive meeting <\/strong>on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. The Monetary Policy Committee left overnight deposit and lending rates unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main operation and discount rates are still at 8.75%, the central bank said in a statement (pdf)<\/a> following the meeting. The CBE cited a slow-down in global economic activity due to supply chain disruptions, as well as expectations that international financial conditions will remain accommodative in the medium term as among the factors motivating the rate hold.<\/p>\n

The decision comes as no surprise:<\/strong> All 12 economists and analysts we surveyed in our regular interest rate poll<\/a> predicted the CBE would leave rates unchanged.<\/p>\n

This means Egypt still offers one of the highest real interest rates in the world<\/strong>, which will be crucial in reducing volatility should US rates pick up or local inflation rise significantly in the coming months. \u201cWe believe Egyptian treasuries will remain attractive, underpinned by EGP stability and maintained real interest rates,\u201d Beltone Financial\u2019s Alia Mamdouh said in a research note following the meeting. \u201cAmong emerging markets with comparable yields, Egypt still stands out with a relatively less impacted economy from the repercussions of the covid-19 pandemic as it provides growth potential.\u201d<\/p>\n

Portfolio flows have been a crucial source of hard currency for Egypt<\/strong> as its economy recovers from the covid pandemic. Foreign holdings have surged to a record USD 33 bn<\/a> this year, bolstering the country\u2019s balance of payments amid a plunge in tourism revenues.<\/p>\n

Taper time is approaching:<\/strong> Fed officials have said<\/a> that the central bank could begin unwinding its USD 120 bn a month bond-buying programme in November \u2014 and has signalled it will then begin increasing interest rates. Rising US rates could spell challenges for emerging markets as investors are tempted to sell-down riskier assets in favor of higher-yielding US treasuries.<\/p>\n

The FinMin has sought to project confidence ahead of the taper<\/strong>, with Finance Minister Mohamed Maait telling Bloomberg<\/a> last month that policymakers are closely monitoring the situation \u2014 and talking up Egypt\u2019s experience at handling EM volatility.<\/p>\n

Inflation is also a concern for policymakers:<\/strong> Annual urban inflation reached a 20-month high<\/a> in September of 6.6%, which the CBE attributed to an unfavourable base effect and accelerating food prices, which rose for the fifth consecutive month to 10.6%.<\/p>\n

But the CBE isn\u2019t sounding the alarm bells:<\/strong> The CBE said that its current policy will see prices stabilize in the medium term, and is consistent with achieving its inflation target of 7% (+\/-2%) by 4Q2022.<\/p>\n

Heightened inflation should be temporary<\/strong>, according to Capital Economics, which said that the urban rate will remain at its current level into early 2022 but could fall back below the lower bound of the central bank\u2019s target range by the middle of next year.<\/p>\n

No rate cuts in the near term:<\/strong> Analysts also don\u2019t see much chance of the CBE resuming its easing cycle while global prices remain pressured. \u201cGiven the upside risk to inflation in the near term and the sizable CA deficit, we do not expect the central bank to relax its monetary policy stance in the short term,\u201d Renaissance Capital wrote in a recent note. Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Khalid and Prime Holdings\u2019 Mona Bedeir both see the central bank holding rates until at least the beginning of 2022. \u201cEgypt\u2019s structurally-high financing needs at a time of growing risk of tightening global conditions will keep the monetary authorities cautious,\u201d Bedeir said in our pre-meeting poll. Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanson also predicts the CBE won\u2019t enact a rate cut before mid-2022, writing over the weekend that he expects policymakers to lower the overnight deposit rate by a total of 150 bps by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n

When\u2019s the next meeting?<\/strong> The Monetary Policy Committee is set to convene for its final meeting of the year on 16 December.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. The Monetary Policy Committee left overnight deposit and lending rates unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":556551,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,7106,104,72,182,349,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-556550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9960784b-94f2-435a-af19-a204ecac1df4","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/320.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[556546],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation, - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation,\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. 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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 11.25%, the lending rate at 12.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/364.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":556550,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/05\/cbe-keeps-rates-on-hold-in-surprise-move\/","url_meta":{"origin":556550,"position":2},"title":"CBE keeps rates on hold in surprise move","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE unexpectedly holds interest rates steady in its first meeting of the year: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, defying expectations of a third consecutive hike. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 16.25%, the lending rate at 17.25%, and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/66.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554051,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":556550,"position":3},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold in final meeting of 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for the ninth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers weighed the possibility of sooner-than-expected US rate hikes in 2022 and the economic impact of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes covid-19. The central bank left the overnight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/382.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598424,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/26\/egypts-central-bank-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":556550,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank keeps interest rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"With one eye on inflation, the central bank leaves interest rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with analyst expectations. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively, and also left\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543516,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/06\/cbe-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-first-meeting-of-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":556550,"position":5},"title":"CBE leaves rates unchanged in first meeting of 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for the tenth consecutive meeting on Thursday. The CBE left the overnight deposit rate at 8.25% and the lending rate at 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are still at 8.75%, it said in a statement (pdf)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=556550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556550\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/556546"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/556551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=556550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=556550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=556550"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=556550"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=556550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}