{"id":556442,"date":"2021-10-26T04:12:11","date_gmt":"2021-10-26T04:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/26\/enterprise-talks-to-imf-director-for-me-and-central-asia-jihad-azour\/"},"modified":"2021-10-26T04:12:11","modified_gmt":"2021-10-26T04:12:11","slug":"enterprise-talks-to-imf-director-for-me-and-central-asia-jihad-azour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/26\/enterprise-talks-to-imf-director-for-me-and-central-asia-jihad-azour\/","title":{"rendered":"Enterprise talks to IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Enterprise talks to Jihad Azour, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia:<\/strong> With the commodities supercycle in full swing across the globe, accompanied by rising inflation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth projection<\/a> for Egypt\u2019s economy in its latest global economic outlook to 5.2% in FY2021-2022 , down 0.5 percentage points from the 5.7% growth it had forecast for the same period in April<\/a>. Overall MENA growth projections on the other hand were revised upwards by 0.4% to 4.1% in 2022.<\/p>\n

We sat down with director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF Jihad Azour <\/strong>to talk about the MENA\u2019s upgrade and Egypt\u2019s downgrade, the impact of rising commodity prices, inflation and vaccine supply on the region.<\/p>\n

Edited excerpts from our conversation-<\/p>\n

Covid has impacted Egypt\u2019s growth because the country\u2019s economy is highly dependent on tourism and social contact sectors<\/strong>. Egypt\u2019s GDP growth held strong during 2020 due to the buffers it had built in the past, including monetary and fiscal measures. But the IMF\u2019s downgrade of Egypt\u2019s growth projections in FY2021-2022 comes in light of declining tourism numbers over the previous year. Accelerating vaccination, as well as reactivating the structural reform agenda, will be important factors in helping Egypt accelerate recovery,<\/p>\n

We expect the increase in prices in light of the rise in commodity prices and inflation rates to remain this year, and then gradually start receding in 2022. <\/strong>The real issue for us this year is the fact that the increase is driven by food prices, and food is an important item in the basket of many families in the region, especially those who are in the low income vulnerable categories. It's very important to address the social dimension of that. We still think that with inflation being temporary, the measures that are introduced so far are sufficient, but we are asking central banks to remain vigilant and when needed, to take additional measures to avoid any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.<\/p>\n

Covid-19 disruptions to supply chains had a milder effect on<\/strong> oil exporters<\/strong> thanks to the subsidy system in place. Measures introduced early on, as well as vaccinations, allowed them to have a smoother re-opening.<\/p>\n

Current inflation risks should not necessarily be met with extreme <\/strong>measures<\/strong>. <\/strong>In the majority of cases, inflation is being driven by strong recovery and capacity shortages. Therefore, it's important not to introduce permanent measures<\/sup><\/sup> if the inflation risk is not expected to be long-lasting.<\/p>\n

But there are a few strategies that could reduce tensions on artificially inflated prices. <\/strong>These include improving supply chains, reducing any potential bottlenecks that exist in your economy, and allowing more market practices to prevail. There is also a need to recalibrate the support measures that were introduced during covid to make them more effective at serving those who are in need, while unwinding some of the measures that are no longer necessary.<\/p>\n

The impact of rising oil prices on energy-importing countries will be seen in their current account first.<\/strong> This could lead to an increase in costs of production, especially in countries where the public transportation system is not efficient. It could increase the cost of transport, especially for low- and middle-income groups in countries with generous subsidy systems or inefficient utilities, like Lebanon, where this is already taking place.<\/p>\n

Countries like Egypt, who had already reformed their subsidy system, will feel less of an impact on their balance of payments. <\/strong>Several countries have already started to reform their subsidy system, gradually moving from a commodity-based subsidy to an income-based subsidy, which lessens the impact of rising prices. In Egypt, for example, the development of the Takaful and Karama programs and the removal of gasoline subsidies helped the government address this issue and limit its impact.<\/p>\n

Increased vaccination rates and the recovering oil sector are behind MENA\u2019s improved growth forecast of 4.1% in 2022. <\/strong>Countries who have accelerated vaccination were able to recover faster. Since the beginning of the year, there has been improvement in economic activities, especially in GCC countries and Morocco, which have introduced efficient tracing and tracking measures, besides pushing for vaccinations. This can also gradually be seen in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. Saudi Arabia, for example, was able to reduce its daily infection count from 5k to 50, and the gradual improvement in oil and gas prices helped the recovery of all GCC economies. In 2021, the non-oil sector will gradually drive the recovery in the GCC as production increases, but the oil sector will contribute to growth in 2022.<\/p>\n

But vaccine supply is not the only issue \u2014 logistics and acceptance of vaccination are equally important. <\/strong>Countries that have diversified their vaccination supply were able to preserve the capacity to vaccinate faster, but streamlining vaccination logistics and processes are equally important. There are certain countries who were able to accelerate the process because they had put a logistical chain in place, such as the UAE and Morocco. The third important aspect is the issue of the public accepting the need for vaccinations. Regulatory frameworks \u2014 such as requiring proof of jabs for social activities \u2014 can accelerate this process.<\/p>\n

A lagging vaccine rollout is a huge risk for economic recovery. <\/strong>The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar were able to open up the economy given their high rates of vaccination. The IMF provided special drawing rights (SDRs) to move vaccinations forward and we hope that they will be used in several countries where financial issues limited the process. Our analysis shows that if a country accelerates vaccination, it could add additional growth of almost 0.5%.<\/p>\n

Rising unemployment and weaknesses in the corporate sector are also risks. <\/strong>Countries who are lagging in terms of vaccines also face the risk of increased unemployment, and increased vulnerability and weaknesses in the corporate sector, which will delay their recovery.<\/p>\n

But it all depends on the level of contact, and the digitization of each sector.<\/strong> Sectors where technology is very well entrenched have recovered faster, while sectors more reliant on human contact and informal sectors have lagged behind. The reformation of labor markets, providing better infrastructure for women to work, and investing heavily in technology and the digital climate will aid the recovery process.<\/p>\n

The fund has been supportive to Egypt over the last few years.<\/strong> The IMF provided the country with an extensive program in 2016, which was successfully implemented and helped Egypt increase its access to donor funding. During the crisis, we provided the country with USD 8.5 bn, and a one-year stand-by agreement. Recently, we also offered USD 2.8 bn in SDRs.<\/p>\n

But the form of coming partnerships depends on the government\u2019s strategies. <\/strong>We are in regular dialogue with the authorities to provide technical assistance and policy support. Now it depends on the strategies that the authorities want to pursue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Enterprise talks to Jihad Azour, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia: With the commodities supercycle in full swing across the globe, accompanied by rising inflation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth projection for Egypt\u2019s economy in its latest global economic outlook to 5.2% in FY2021-2022 , down 0.5 percentage points from the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":556443,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,272,3368,345],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-556442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-jihad-azour","tag-mena","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"2301dde1-d638-4494-8478-f5493bcbc36e","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/273.jpeg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[556436],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEnterprise 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cooperation: Egypt and the IMF are currently in talks to set the parameters of a potential future engagement once our USD 12 bn Extended Fund Facility expires next month, the IMF\u2019s Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour tells\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601016,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/17\/imf-keen-to-support-egypts-social-safety-programs-azour-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":556442,"position":1},"title":"IMF keen to support Egypt\u2019s social safety programs, Azour says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is keen on supporting Egypt\u2019s social safety programs, Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour told Social Solidarity Minister Ghada Waly.","rel":"","context":"In "Diplomacy + Foreign Trade"","block_context":{"text":"Diplomacy + Foreign Trade","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/diplomacy-foreign-trade\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":588190,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/07\/could-the-imfs-mena-chief-become-lebanons-next-president\/","url_meta":{"origin":556442,"position":2},"title":"Could the IMF\u2019s MENA chief become Lebanon\u2019s next president?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Lebanon has been without a president since October","rel":"","context":"In "AROUND THE WORLD"","block_context":{"text":"AROUND THE WORLD","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/around-the-world\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/342.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546116,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/support-talks-with-imf-reach-technical-stage-as-lender-pinpoints-key-reforms-the-fund-expects-uneven-recovery-in-the-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":556442,"position":3},"title":"Support talks with IMF reach technical stage as lender pinpoints key reforms + The Fund expects uneven recovery in the Middle East","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Talks between Egypt and the IMF on a fresh support package have reached the \u201ctechnical stage,\u201d Jihad Azour, the multilateral lender\u2019s head of Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters at a press briefing on the release of the IMF\u2019s latest regional outlook yesterday, Ahram Online reports. Azour did not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/388.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":600940,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/14\/imf-praises-egypts-commitment-to-reform-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":556442,"position":4},"title":"IMF praises Egypt\u2019s commitment to reform program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt again telegraphs it won\u2019t be signing up for another IMF loan after drawing down the last of the current USD 12 bn facility: IMF Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour gave Egypt tubtubs as he met yesterday with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and Central Bank of Egypt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/2\/1585.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544686,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":556442,"position":5},"title":"The Russia-Ukraine war will curb our economic growth and hit the budget \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In case Ahmed Kouchouk\u2019s warning wasn\u2019t enough, the IMF also thinks emerging markets including Egypt will need to hedge against the economic risks associated with the war in Ukraine, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 15:43). Egypt\u2019s budget will likely face pressure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/202.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=556442"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556442\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/556436"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/556443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=556442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=556442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=556442"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=556442"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=556442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}