{"id":555904,"date":"2021-10-03T04:14:18","date_gmt":"2021-10-03T04:14:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/"},"modified":"2021-10-03T04:14:18","modified_gmt":"2021-10-03T04:14:18","slug":"how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/","title":{"rendered":"How will Egypt fare when the Fed starts to taper?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-03\"><\/a> <strong>Egypt is among emerging markets that are bracing for the Fed taper:<\/strong> Emerging-market debt \u2014 including Egyptian bonds and T-bills \u2014 could become less attractive to foreign investors after the Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/fed-tees-up-taper-and-signals-rate-rises-possible-next-year-11632333617\">last month hinted<\/a> that it could start to wind down its asset-purchase program in November and raise interest rates as soon as next year. A tighter US policy could leave emerging markets vulnerable to a drop in foreign inflows as risk-averse managers seek safer returns in the US. That said, Egypt\u2019s strong foreign reserves, fast-growing economy, and a switch to longer-term maturities in recent years mean Egypt is best-placed among EM to weather a potential storm. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-09-30\/seven-charts-show-egypt-s-debt-dilemma-ahead-of-fed-tapering?sref=mmeFTDW1\">Bloomberg<\/a> has a full, chart-based rundown of the strengths and pressure points to watch out for as Egypt\u2019s fixed-income market transitions into the post-covid-recovery economy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>High real rates mean high inflows \u2014 and greater exposure to volatility: <\/strong>Egypt offers one of the world\u2019s highest inflation-adjusted rates, leading to a boom in foreign holdings of Egyptian debt, which hit a record USD 33.3 bn at the start of August, Bloomberg writes. High inflows have helped the state finance spending \u2014 but a reliance on foreign investors leaves us vulnerable to volatility in the fixed-income markets, while elevated rates mean the cost of debt service is also comparatively high. A hike in global rates may see Egypt pressured to pay out higher yields to stem the outflows.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We\u2019re positioned to avoid the worst of an EM sell-off: <\/strong>Historically, global rate movements haven\u2019t had much impact on the local picture, Shamaila Khan, head of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York, told Bloomberg. \u201cIf other emerging markets are pressured, I would expect Egypt to still perform well on a relative basis,\u201d she said. On debt service, S&P said the government has made \u201cnotable progress\u201d in lowering the burden. The proportion of the state budget allocated to debt service was down to 36% as of June from 40% a year before, with a target of 32% by June 2022, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait has said. Meanwhile, a turn toward offering longer-term debt instruments \u2014 the average maturity has doubled since 2013 to reach 3.26 years \u2014 may help insulate the country from a shock sell-off.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Strong FX reserves are key: <\/strong>Net international foreign exchange reserves have held fast at USD 40.7 bn, creating \u201cgood buffers to deal with any potential capital outflows,\u201d said Ahmed Hafez, MENA head of research Renaissance Capital, who added that the improving real economy \u2014 including tourism \u2014 will also help bolster Egypt\u2019s position.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Real economic growth is outpacing the rise in debt: <\/strong>GDP continued to rise during the pandemic, albeit at a slower pace than before, proving the country\u2019s resilience as developed nations and peers in the oil-reliant Gulf took a harder hit. The economy grew at a 3.3% clip in the 2020\/2021 fiscal year, with a target to rebound to pre-pandemic growth levels of 5.5% this FY. Strong growth has tempered the impact of rising debt: while the debt-to-GDP ratio ticked up as the result of the pandemic to 90.6% in June 2020 from 87.4% a year before, it is expected to return to a years-long declining trend come 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt is among emerging markets that are bracing for the Fed taper: Emerging-market debt \u2014 including Egyptian bonds and T-bills \u2014 could become less attractive to foreign investors after the Federal Reserve last month hinted that it could start to wind down its asset-purchase program in November and raise interest rates as soon as next [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":555905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[541,82,104,115,72,349,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-555904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-asset-management","tag-bonds","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bfb6452e-477a-4ba8-8672-08d0cd9cb0aa","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/25.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[555896],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How will Egypt fare when the Fed starts to taper? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How will Egypt fare when the Fed starts to taper?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt is among emerging markets that are bracing for the Fed taper: Emerging-market debt \u2014 including Egyptian bonds and T-bills \u2014 could become less attractive to foreign investors after the Federal Reserve last month hinted that it could start to wind down its asset-purchase program in November and raise interest rates as soon as next [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-10-03T04:14:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/25.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"How will Egypt fare when the Fed starts to taper?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-10-03T04:14:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/\"},\"wordCount\":525,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/25.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"asset management\",\"Bonds\",\"economy\",\"emerging markets\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"interest rates\",\"US Federal Reserve\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/03\/how-will-egypt-fare-when-the-fed-starts-to-taper\/\",\"name\":\"How will Egypt fare when the Fed starts to taper? 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Despite enjoying the highest real interest rate in the world, a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/72.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557228,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/egypt-can-withstand-a-us-taper-says-maait\/","url_meta":{"origin":555904,"position":1},"title":"Egypt can withstand a US taper, says Maait","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt should be able to cope if US interest rates rise as the Federal Reserve begins unwinding its covid stimulus programme, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Bloomberg last week in a TV appearance (watch, runtime: 18:47). Policymakers are \u201cclosely monitoring\u201d the potential effects of rising US rates on Egypt\u2019s borrowing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563158,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/21\/hawks-at-the-fed-egypt-shouldnt-sweat-it\/","url_meta":{"origin":555904,"position":2},"title":"Hawks at the Fed? Egypt shouldn\u2019t sweat it.","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The EGP will hold up better than most other emerging-market currencies in the event of tightening at the Federal Reserve, given its attractive real interest rates, an analyst at Fidelity International tells Bloomberg. The currency, along with the Ghanaian cedi, have an \u201cenormous\u201d advantage over their peers in terms of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/264.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556550,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":555904,"position":3},"title":"Egypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation,","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. The Monetary Policy Committee left overnight deposit and lending rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/320.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":555881,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/30\/omicron-fed-taper-hits-emerging-market-bond-etfs\/","url_meta":{"origin":555904,"position":4},"title":"Omicron + Fed taper hits emerging-market bond ETFs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 November 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Omicron + Fed taper hits emerging-market bond ETFs: Investors pulled more than USD 850 mn from emerging-market debt ETFs last week as the discovery of the Omicron covid variant and the decision to keep Jay Powell as Federal Reserve head for another term fuelled risk-off sentiment, data from Bloomberg shows.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PLANET FINANCE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556179,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/14\/the-egyptian-government-to-look-at-markets-again-in-feb-march\/","url_meta":{"origin":555904,"position":5},"title":"The Egyptian government to look at markets again in Feb, March","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- How 2022 could be a big year for Egyptian debt, according to FinMin\u2019s Ahmed Kouchouk: Through a mixture of stimulus funding, tax breaks, high interest rates, timely eurobond issuances, and the adoption of new debt instruments (namely, green bonds), Egypt was largely shielded from from the heaviest macroeconomic blows\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/154.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=555904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555904\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/555896"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/555905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=555904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=555904"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=555904"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=555904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}