{"id":555500,"date":"2021-11-16T04:02:35","date_gmt":"2021-11-16T04:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/16\/us-inflation-is-starting-to-cause-problems-for-emerging-markets\/"},"modified":"2021-11-16T04:02:35","modified_gmt":"2021-11-16T04:02:35","slug":"us-inflation-is-starting-to-cause-problems-for-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/16\/us-inflation-is-starting-to-cause-problems-for-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"US inflation is starting to cause problems for emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> A surge in US inflation is threatening to end the emerging-market USD carry trade:<\/strong> EM carry trades funded in USD have seen the biggest drop-off since the covid market crash in March 2020, tumbling more than 4% over the past two months as US inflation has risen, according to a Bloomberg<\/a> carry trade index. News last week that US inflation reached a 30-year high in October has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, an act that would raise costs for investors borrowing greenbacks and push them out of the carry trade. \u201cSharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the U.S. and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory,\u201d said one EM strategist. \u201cThis bodes badly for EM carry trades in the near term as it reduces the relative yield gap.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Fed is struggling to control the narrative<\/strong>: In an interview with CNBC<\/a> yesterday Mohamed El Erian suggested that the Fed\u2019s doubling down on its short-term inflation theory risks undermining US monetary policy. \u201cI think the Fed is losing credibility,\u201d the famed economist and Allianz chief economic advisor said during the Adipec energy expo in Dubai \u201cI\u2019ve argued that it is really important to reestablish a credible voice on inflation and this has massive institutional, political and social implications.\u201d<\/p>\n

Egypt is better positioned than most<\/strong>, and thanks to its benchmark rate remaining at 8.25% it still enjoys one of the highest real rates in the world even as inflation has ticked up in recent months. The most recent foreign holdings data (from August) showed that investment in local debt remained at record highs<\/a> at around USD 33 bn.<\/p>\n

But rising US yields could change the calculus:<\/strong> US yields have been climbing since the Fed announced two weeks ago that it would begin tapering its USD 110 bn-a-month bond-buying programme later this month. The bond-market sell-off<\/a> that began last week continued yesterday, with 10-year yields pushing back above 1.6%<\/a> as concerns about tightening conditions continued to cause volatility.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re in a very tricky time,\u201d<\/strong> said Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of Jacob Asset Management. \u201cWe\u2019re dealing with kind of a very, very unusual set of crosswinds in the economy that we need to kind of get past.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,496<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.4% (YTD: +6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 15.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 15.76<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD at CIB<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 15.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 15.76<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates CBE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,8367<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +36.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,269<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +63.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,255<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.7% (YTD: +30.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,683<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.0% (YTD: +24.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,338<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +14%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 82.16<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 5.02<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+4.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 1,867<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 63,921<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (as of midnight)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 1.4% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 1.02 bn (31% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 6.0% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Rameda (+5.5%), CIRA (+1.5%) and Speed Medical (+0.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Fawry (-5.8%), Aspire Capital (-4.3%) and Palm Hills Development (-4.3%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A surge in US inflation is threatening to end the emerging-market USD carry trade: EM carry trades funded in USD have seen the biggest drop-off since the covid market crash in March 2020, tumbling more than 4% over the past two months as US inflation has risen, according to a Bloomberg carry trade index. News […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[7325,163,72,119,78,120,122,645,594,112],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-555500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-arm","tag-dubai","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-ipo-watch","tag-nasdaq","tag-planet-finance","tag-semiconductors","tag-shell","tag-uk","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c250f40c-7e4a-4550-9f85-84b8b66a5c73","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[555481],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nUS inflation is starting to cause problems for emerging markets - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/16\/us-inflation-is-starting-to-cause-problems-for-emerging-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US inflation is starting to cause problems for emerging markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A surge in US inflation is threatening to end the emerging-market USD carry trade: EM carry trades funded in USD have seen the biggest drop-off since the covid market crash in March 2020, tumbling more than 4% over the past two months as US inflation has risen, according to a Bloomberg carry trade index. 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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement (pdf) following the meeting that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/18.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557226,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-september-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":555500,"position":2},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to keep rates on hold in September meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this Thursday as it looks to keep inflation in check, according to a poll conducted by Enterprise. All 10 analysts surveyed said they expected the CBE to maintain its cautious approach for its seventh\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/137.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558374,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/08\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold-for-sixth-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":555500,"position":3},"title":"CBE leaves interest rates on hold for sixth consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers look to preempt rising inflation and maintain Egypt\u2019s high real interest rate. Overnight deposit and lending rates were kept unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/110.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569103,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/13\/cbe-to-ease-off-rate-cuts-this-year-in-a-bid-to-support-strong-carry-trade-efg-hermes\/","url_meta":{"origin":555500,"position":4},"title":"CBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG Hermes","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG Hermes: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to slow its easing cycle this year as it looks to maintain the strength of the carry trade and support the EGP, according to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/181.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566346,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/14\/will-our-balancing-act-on-inflation-endear-us-to-foreign-investors\/","url_meta":{"origin":555500,"position":5},"title":"Will our balancing act on inflation endear us to foreign investors?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets that are talking tough on inflation will be rewarded by foreign investors, who have one eye on the potential dangers ahead as price pressures grow, analysts tell Bloomberg. Central bankers in developing countries are having to perform a delicate balancing act between supporting their economies \u2014 many of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/479.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=555500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555500\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/555481"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=555500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=555500"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=555500"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=555500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}