{"id":555373,"date":"2021-11-11T04:11:21","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T04:11:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/11\/annual-inflation-cools-from-20-month-high\/"},"modified":"2021-11-11T04:11:21","modified_gmt":"2021-11-11T04:11:21","slug":"annual-inflation-cools-from-20-month-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/11\/annual-inflation-cools-from-20-month-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Annual inflation cools from 20-month high"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> A<\/strong>nnual urban inflation <\/strong>f<\/strong>ell back from its 20-month high in October<\/strong> as the rate of increase in food prices dipped from the month prior, according to official figures (pdf)<\/a> released yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas. Urban inflation slipped to 6.3%, down from 6.6% in September<\/a>, which was the highest reading since January 2020.<\/p>\n

Why the dip? A serious slowdown in non-food inflation<\/strong>, which fell to 3.7% from 4.6% in September. This is the slowest pace in more than a decade, according to Capital Economics which attributed the fall to a decrease in rents and slower clothing and education inflation.<\/p>\n

But food prices continued to accelerate:<\/strong> The slowdown elsewhere offset food and beverage prices, which rose to 11.5% on an annual basis in October from 10.5% the month before, the highest level in two years, according to Capital Economics.This was primarily driven by a 4.6% increase in red meat and poultry prices.<\/p>\n

Housing utilities and gas prices inched up 3.1%<\/strong> on the back of a third hike in fuel prices<\/a> this year, while recreation and culture jumped by 14.7%, the biggest increase in urban inflation for the month.<\/p>\n

But don\u2019t let the favorable base effect fool you:<\/strong> Inflation continued to accelerate on a monthly basis, rising to 1.5% in October from 1.1% the month before. This was driven by a 12.7% rise in education prices and a 6% hike in the recreation segment. Unlike the annual figures, food prices rose at a slower rate, falling to 1% from 3.5% in September.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation rose to 5.2% during the month<\/strong>, up from 4.8% the previous month, central bank figures (pdf)<\/a> showed. Monthly core inflation came in at 2.1%, up from 1.7% in September. Core inflation strips out volatile items from the basket of goods such as food and fuel.<\/p>\n

Expectations were mixed ahead of the release<\/strong>: Al Ahly Pharos originally forecasted the annual rate to rise to 6.8%, a prediction that it said was missed to lower-than-expected education inflation. Beltone Financial, meanwhile, wrote that the figures came in line with its estimates.<\/p>\n

Inflation is set to increase in the medium term:<\/strong> \u201cWe expect headline inflation to continue gaining momentum in 4Q21e as the rise in global commodity prices starts to reflect gradually in the domestic market coupled with base effect,\u201d Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh wrote in a note following the release. Meanwhile, Capital Economics thinks inflation could stay within the 6-6.5% range over the next months and into early 2022.<\/p>\n

The CBE is still expected to keep rates on hold till the end of year: <\/strong>Inflation remains within CBE\u2019s target range of 7% (\u00b12%), but rising global and domestic prices indicate that the Central Bank of Egypt will maintain its cautious approach and keep interest rates on hold during its final meeting this year on 16 December, according to Beltone. This would maintain our lucrative carry trade, which could be under threat following the recent Fed taper and the subsequent US interest rate hike likely to happen next year<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Looking further ahead: <\/strong>Inflation could drop back toward the lower end of CBE\u2019s target 7% (+\/-2%) range in 2Q2022, Capital Economics adds in its note. This could give policymakers a chance to cut the overnight deposit rate to as low as 6.75% \u2014 from 8.25% at present \u2014 by end-2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflation fell back from its 20-month high in October as the rate of increase in food prices dipped from the month prior, according to official figures (pdf) released yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas. Urban inflation slipped to 6.3%, down from 6.6% in September, which was the highest reading since January 2020. Why […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":555374,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,271,104,72,900,182,349,239],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-555373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-food-and-beverage","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-supply-chain","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5c65fac4-689f-4cec-88b1-3eca365624ca","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/414.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[555364],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nAnnual inflation cools from 20-month high - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/11\/annual-inflation-cools-from-20-month-high\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Annual inflation cools from 20-month high\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual urban inflation fell back from its 20-month high in October as the rate of increase in food prices dipped from the month prior, according to official figures (pdf) released yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas. 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Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/429.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572107,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/11\/egypts-inflation-decelerated-in-may-to-4-7-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":555373,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation decelerated in May to 4.7%, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We caught a break: Inflation cools to six-month low: Annual urban inflation in May slowed to its lowest level since November, dropping to 4.7% from 5.9% in April, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Food and beverage prices continue to be the main drivers: Food prices fell 0.7%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/133.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573589,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/egypts-inflation-decelerated-in-july-to-4-2-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":555373,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation decelerated in July to 4.2%, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation decelerated to 4.2% in July, down from an uptick to 5.6% in June, according to central bank figures (pdf). The central bank attributed the decline to a favorable base effect. Monthly headline urban figures remained restrained at 0.4% in July, compared to 1.8% during the same month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/75.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577168,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/13\/inflation-hits-four-year-high-in-october\/","url_meta":{"origin":555373,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits four-year high in October","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation accelerates again in October: Urban inflation hit its highest level in four years in October on the back of surging food prices. The annual rate of inflation rose to 16.2% during the month from 15.0% in September, according to figures (pdf) released Thursday by state statistics agency Capmas. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/194.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=555373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555373\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/555364"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/555374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=555373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=555373"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=555373"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=555373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}