{"id":554552,"date":"2021-12-16T13:47:57","date_gmt":"2021-12-16T13:47:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/16\/tonight-its-interest-rate-day-expect-a-message-soon-if-youre-eligible-for-a-booster-shot-also-fireside-chats-on-women-in-tech-jobzillas-job-fair-are-events-to-attend\/"},"modified":"2021-12-16T13:47:57","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T13:47:57","slug":"tonight-its-interest-rate-day-expect-a-message-soon-if-youre-eligible-for-a-booster-shot-also-fireside-chats-on-women-in-tech-jobzillas-job-fair-are-events-to-attend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/16\/tonight-its-interest-rate-day-expect-a-message-soon-if-youre-eligible-for-a-booster-shot-also-fireside-chats-on-women-in-tech-jobzillas-job-fair-are-events-to-attend\/","title":{"rendered":"TONIGHT: It\u2019s interest rate day + expect a message soon if you\u2019re eligible for a booster shot + Also: Fireside chats on women in tech + Jobzilla\u2019s job fair are events to attend"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> We close out the week with the final interest rate day of 2021,<\/strong> ladies and gentlemen, as the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets to review interest rates. All 11 economists and analysts we surveyed<\/a> expect the MPC to leave rates unchanged for the ninth consecutive meeting.<\/p>\n

Where rates stand now: <\/strong>The overnight deposit rate is at 8.25%, the lending rate at 9.25% and the main operation and discount rates are at 8.75%. The central bank slashed rates by 400 bps last year, including an emergency 300 bps cut in March<\/a>, to protect the economy from the fallout from covid-19. It has since maintained rates for eight consecutive meetings, including its most recent in October, amid concerns about an increase in inflation.<\/p>\n

Inflation does not appear to be a concern:<\/strong> Annual urban inflation slowed for the second month running in November<\/a>and dipped to its lowest since July as pressure on food prices continued to ease, according to official figures released on Thursday. The headline rate fell to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October<\/a>, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the central bank\u2019s target range of 5-9% for 4Q2022. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose ever-so-slightly by 0.1%, following October\u2019s 1.1% rise. With Egypt\u2019s inflationary pressures cooling off in November, the bank now has a bit of breathing space to hold off changes and protect the economic recovery, amid an uncertain outlook due to the spread of the new Omicron variant, analysts told us last week.<\/p>\n

The Fed, however, is a very different matter: <\/strong>The CBE\u2019s decision will likely factor in the US Federal Reserve\u2019s major pivot from its \u201cwait and see\u201d policy towards a hawkish strategy<\/a>. The Fed announced yesterday it will taper its bond-buying program at double the pace it originally expected, as it braces for three rate hikes in 2022. After keeping interest rates near zero throughout the pandemic in efforts to support the economy, the Fed is now taking a harder line due to US inflation surging to an almost 40-year high.<\/p>\n

Why should it matter?<\/strong> It puts emerging-market debt \u2014 including Egyptian bonds and T-bills \u2014 at risk<\/a> of becoming less attractive to foreign investors. Tighter monetary policy in the US could leave emerging markets vulnerable to a drop in foreign inflows as risk-averse managers seek safer returns in the US.<\/p>\n

Following suit, the Bank of England has <\/strong>raised interest rates<\/a><\/strong> today to 0.25%<\/strong>, the first hike in more than three years, in an effort to contain the UK\u2019s decade-high inflation. The move came as a surprise<\/a> to some economists who had anticipated no change from the BoE, amid fears that the country\u2019s surging cases of Covid could slow the UK economy. Policymakers said more \u201cmodest\u201d tightening is likely needed in response to rising prices.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s still business as usual at the ECB: <\/strong>The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is maintaining the \u201cinflation is temporary\u201d narrative, deciding to keep ratesunchanged<\/a> in its meeting today. The ECB confirmed it will end net bond purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase program by the end of March, but will ramp up other stimulus measures. The bank will expand a separate bond-buying program in 2022, and does not plan to raise its key interest rate, currently set at minus 0.5%, until it ends its net bond purchases. This comes despite inflation in the EUR area reaching a record high of 4.9% in November.<\/p>\n

Over in EM-land we have Erdonomics, or as we like to call it, monetary policy for <\/strong>dummies: <\/strong>Turkey\u2019s TRY plunged to an all-time low today, as the central bank cut interest rates for the fourth consecutive month, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. The TRY is now worth about half its value at the beginning of the year, hitting 15.65 to the USD immediately following the news. Turkey\u2019s inflation is now at more than 21%, climbing steadily as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to raise rates, which he has previously called \u201cthe mother of all evil.\u201c<\/p>\n

The CBE\u2019s decision on interest rates should be out by 6pm CLT today<\/strong>. We will have detailed coverage in Sunday\u2019s EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY TODAY- <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> The Health Ministry <\/strong>will <\/strong>be offering booster shots to those \u201celigible\u201d without requiring them to register, <\/strong>according to a decision by the Madbouly Cabinetannounced today<\/a>. Eligible people \u2014 currently include only medical staff, senior citizens, and people with chronic medical conditions \u2014 will be chosen from the ministry\u2019s current directory of people who signed up for the vaccine. Cabinet spokesman Nader Saad previously said<\/a> that around 4 mn people fall within this category. The statement did not note when the roll out of boosters will begin. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Health Ministry will be sending those eligible messages with booster shot time and date<\/strong>. The ministry was previously expected to allow registration for boosters from its website, but the launch of booster shot online registration was delayed<\/a> in the past few weeks.<\/p>\n

23 mn booster jabs to be administered by 1H2022: <\/strong>The definition of who is considered eligible will likely be expanded in the coming months as the ministry is aiming to administer 23 mn booster shots by 1H2022, the statement added. People will need to have been fully vaccinated six months prior to receiving their booster. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Where do we currently stand on our vaccine rollouts? <\/strong>The country currently has 64.5 mn vaccine doses available at its disposal. Some 52 mn doses of various jobs have been given so far, at a rate of 551k vaccines per day. Meanwhile, 540k doses have been administered to people less than 18 years of age since the government greenlit the rollout for the age group between 15-18<\/a> early in November and the age group between 12-15<\/a> later on in the month.<\/p>\n

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HAPPENING NOW-<\/strong> Saudi Foreign Minister Emir Faisal Bin Farhan is here and Cairo to <\/strong>discuss \u201cpolitical consultation mechanism\u201d <\/strong>with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, according to a ministry statement<\/a>. The mechanism, which kicked off with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on Sunday<\/a>, is intended to cement ties between Egypt and the Gulf region on relevant regional and international issues.<\/p>\n

CORRECTION- Madinet Nasr Housing and Development\u2019s (MNHD) fair value study <\/strong>estimates that it will shell out a maximum EGP 232 mn to acquire Minka Development<\/strong>, and not a minimum as we reported yesterday. Despite the valuation, MNHD\u2019s management, which is currently negotiating a final price for the company, still expects to acquire Minka at the EGP 200-220 mn range that MNHD said it expected to pay when it first announced<\/a> the acquisition plan in October, an official at the company told us today. The story has since been corrected on our website<\/a>.<\/p>\n

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today\u2019s EnterpriseAM:<\/strong><\/p>\n