{"id":554375,"date":"2021-12-02T13:38:33","date_gmt":"2021-12-02T13:38:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/02\/global-inflation-could-continue-rising-thanks-to-omicron-and-the-never-ending-supply-chain-crisis\/"},"modified":"2021-12-02T13:38:33","modified_gmt":"2021-12-02T13:38:33","slug":"global-inflation-could-continue-rising-thanks-to-omicron-and-the-never-ending-supply-chain-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/02\/global-inflation-could-continue-rising-thanks-to-omicron-and-the-never-ending-supply-chain-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Global inflation could continue rising thanks to Omicron and the never-ending supply chain crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-08\"><\/a> <strong>A convergence of the new Omicron strain + the shipping crisis could push up<\/strong><strong> global inflation and undermine the post-covid recovery in a big way.<\/strong> That\u2019s the headline message from two recent reports from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) looking at the forecast for trade, inflation, and the global socioeconomic recovery.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cUneven\u201d performance is still the headline feature of global economic performance:<\/strong> Across OECD countries, the economic recovery and output levels since mid-2020 have outstripped expectations, but is now beginning to slow down and \u201cis becoming increasingly imbalanced,\u201d said the OECD in its latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd-ilibrary.org\/sites\/66c5ac2c-en\/index.html?itemId=\/content\/publication\/66c5ac2c-en\">Economic Outlook report<\/a>. The unevenness is particularly evident in low-income countries with low vaccination rates, and will likely remain a key fixture of the economic recovery going forward, with the report forecasting \u201csizeable long-term income scars from the crisis\u201d among developing and emerging markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The recovery is being undermined by supply chain bottlenecks failing to keep up with surging consumer demand for goods<\/strong>, which is creating inflationary pressures across the world, the OECD notes. Prices are rising on the back of \u201cdisruptions in energy, food and commodity markets,\u201d coupled with higher prices (and shortages) of energy that are holding back the production of \u201ckey materials and intermediate goods,\u201d according to the report.<\/p>\n<p><strong>High shipping costs could also continue to hold back the global manufacturing recovery: <\/strong>If container freight rates increase by 10%, this could lead to a 1% decrease in manufacturing in the US and the Eurozone, while China\u2019s production could drop 0.2%, according to UNCTAD\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/unctad.org\/system\/files\/official-document\/rmt2021_en_0.pdf\">Review of Maritime Transport 2021 (pdf)<\/a>. The report points to shipping supply chain disruptions, port constraints, and terminal inefficiencies as main problems driving up shipping costs globally.<\/p>\n<p><strong>This is all feeding into rising (and <\/strong><strong>not-so-transitory<\/strong><strong>) inflation:<\/strong> Global import price levels could increase by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023 due to high freight costs unless the shipping crisis is resolved, UNCTAD says. All of these inflationary pressures are now expected to last longer than previously anticipated, according to the OECD, which expects inflation to peak in 2021 but remain above pre-pandemic levels through 2023.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Even with inflation, the impact and recovery trajectory is mixed \u2014 both across countries and sectors.<\/strong> Small island developing states could see import prices increase by 24% and consumer prices by 7.5% while least developed countries could see consumer price levels rise by 2.2%, UNCTAD said. Low-value-added items such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products are expected to endure the highest price increases, forecasted at 10.2%. Meanwhile, the price of rubber and plastics products could go up by 9.4%, pharma products 7.5%, electrical equipment 7.5%, motor vehicles 6.9%, and machinery and equipment 6.4%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Enter Omicron:<\/strong> All of these imbalances could be magnified with the arrival of the new covid-19 strain, which has so far seen several countries impose travel restrictions in a scenario that reminds us just a little too much of early 2020. \u201cNew mobility restrictions and port closures could hamper global trade, as persisting shutdowns in key economies reduce the availability of supplies along supply chains and lengthen supplier delivery times. Such further supply disruption might also create additional upward pressure on some prices,\u201d the OECD says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The outlook? It\u2019s all about vaccination:<\/strong> As more countries \u2014 particularly developed economies \u2014 ramp up vaccination and are now working on rolling out booster shots, the effect of covid-19 and related supply disruptions will continue to ease, the OECD says. Demand patterns are also expected to normalize and kinks in the supply chain will be smoothed out, which \u201cshould facilitate a continued global economic recovery and remove some inflationary pressures, but will not necessarily make the recovery more balanced.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A convergence of the new Omicron strain + the shipping crisis could push up global inflation and undermine the post-covid recovery in a big way. That\u2019s the headline message from two recent reports from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) looking at the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":554376,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[107,633,182,1701,239,1510,2507],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-554375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-covid-19","tag-enterprisepm","tag-inflation","tag-oecd","tag-supply-chain","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-unctad","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e438870f-9e12-466d-8b77-8f40e9734aed","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/571.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[554366],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global inflation could continue rising thanks to Omicron and the never-ending supply chain crisis - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/02\/global-inflation-could-continue-rising-thanks-to-omicron-and-the-never-ending-supply-chain-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global inflation could continue rising thanks to Omicron and the never-ending supply chain crisis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A convergence of the new Omicron strain + the shipping crisis could push up global inflation and undermine the post-covid recovery in a big way. 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The OECD is out with two scenarios, and neither are particularly good.","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Where does the global economy go from here? The OECD is out with two scenarios, and neither is particularly good. The global economy is on course to contract by 6% this year but if a second wave hits before the end of the year activity will tank even further, falling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/137.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566201,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/02\/its-good-news-bad-news-from-the-oecd\/","url_meta":{"origin":554375,"position":3},"title":"It\u2019s good news \/ bad news from the OECD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The OECD is out with its latest global economic outlook \u2014 and there\u2019s good news and bad news. The good news is that the world\u2019s most advanced economies look set to stage a stronger-than-anticipated recovery, returning to pre-covid levels by next year. The bad news? Most everyone else is going\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":669738,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/08\/07\/falling-business-investment-could-weigh-on-global-growth-says-oecd\/","url_meta":{"origin":554375,"position":4},"title":"Falling business investment could weigh on global growth, says OECD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 August 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Insufficient demand and increased uncertainty are pushing a slowdown in investment","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PLANET FINANCE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/8\/425.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565300,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/31\/are-we-in-a-global-housing-bubble\/","url_meta":{"origin":554375,"position":5},"title":"Are we in a global housing bubble?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"A boom in global house prices is causing concern about a potential real estate bubble, with government stimulus and WFH policies driving unprecedented growth in the sector over the past year, the Wall Street Journal reports. Prices were already high in Europe, Asia and Canada in the lead-up to 2020,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/602.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=554375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554375\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/554366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/554376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=554375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=554375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=554375"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=554375"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=554375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}