{"id":554253,"date":"2021-12-27T03:59:32","date_gmt":"2021-12-27T03:59:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/27\/the-macro-picture-of-our-2021-recovery\/"},"modified":"2021-12-27T03:59:32","modified_gmt":"2021-12-27T03:59:32","slug":"the-macro-picture-of-our-2021-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/27\/the-macro-picture-of-our-2021-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"The macro picture of our 2021 recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-07\"><\/a> <strong>Our 2021 recovery by the numbers: <\/strong>Following a difficult first year of the pandemic, 2021 saw the economy starting to get back on track. Loosening international travel restrictions, stabilizing energy markets, and the global vaccine rollout have underpinned a resurgence in economic growth this year. Tourists are returning, exports are back to pre-pandemic levels, and corporate earnings are looking healthier.<\/p>\n<p><strong>It hasn\u2019t been without its challenges though: <\/strong>Supply chain disruptions, surging commodity prices, and concern about an imminent rise in global interest rates have all caused headaches for businesses this year. And the absence of recovery in private sector activity is a cause for concern.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Let\u2019s start with the headline figure: GDP.<\/strong> After being one of the few countries in the world to avoid a recession in 2020, the past 12 months has seen Egypt build on a recovery that began in late 2020. Annual GDP went from 2.9% in 1Q to 7.2% in the second quarter and <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ac19890f-00ac-42c9-97b8-ecfccc2d8e99\">9.8% in 3Q<\/a> \u2014 the fastest rate of growth seen in two decades \u2014 partly thanks to improving economic fundamentals and partly due to a favorable base effect from the lower growth rates in 2020. Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 6-7% clip in 2Q2021-2022, Planning Minister Hala El Said <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/346bda71-d9f0-42ee-b29d-1a13546e3181\">said this month<\/a>. El Said noted, but we\u2019re still on track to end FY2021-2022 with a GDP growth rate of somewhere between 5.5% and 5.7%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The hospitality sector has been the crown jewel in Egypt\u2019s economic recovery this year<\/strong>, benefitting from the restoration of flights, the global vaccination rollout, and diminishing public concerns about Egypt\u2019s covid epidemic. Quarterly tourism revenues are now not far from pre-pandemic levels, helping output in the hospitality sector to rise some 430% y-o-y in 2Q and 182% in 3Q from a year earlier, according to data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/mped.gov.eg\/GrossDomestic?lang=en\">Planning Ministry<\/a>. Growth in manufacturing \u2014 the largest sector of the Egyptian economy \u2014 has been more muted but has still seen a rebound, rising 10.5% and 15.2% in the first and second quarters respectively.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But strong economic growth \u2260 a strong private sector recovery:<\/strong> Non-oil private sector activity has been in contraction <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f6572964-fd33-4870-9d6d-f1bb1d364abb\">all year<\/a> even as corporate earnings have recovered from the year-that-must-not-be-named. Firms have continued to suffer from a combination of depressed demand and rising costs, resulting in only three months of growth in the 21 months since March 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Public finances have strengthened:<\/strong> Egypt <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b9b256c9-96d6-4a37-8097-31671ba3016b\">beat its deficit targets<\/a> during the previous fiscal year, narrowing the budget deficit from 8.0% of GDP to 7.4% and generating a 1.5% primary surplus. The Finance Ministry had initially targeted a <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/6f10ef3d-eec0-4f11-a112-c1dee1ee9780\">0.9% primary surplus<\/a> and an overall deficit of <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/aa6ab750-42a3-477e-b035-3c7c75ab5dbd\">7.8%<\/a>. It has been a slightly different story so far in FY2021-2022, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/Section-4-Fiscal-Sector-7.pdf\">most recent figures (pdf)<\/a> showing that the deficit widened y-o-y during the July-October period from 2.7% to 3.1%, and the primary balance fell into a slight deficit.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tax everything that moves:<\/strong> The Finance Ministry has worked overtime searching for new ways to tax people and businesses this year as it tries to raise revenues and strengthen public finances. The big one as far as resident investors are concerned is the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/fc92b9f8-5427-446f-a7dc-2960cc4d17a4\">10% capital gains tax<\/a> on EGX transactions, which the ministry decided to go ahead albeit with <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/0d5b64f8-dc18-49ff-8e2b-2a2b09107c25\">a package of sweeteners<\/a> to quieten the industry backlash against the proposal and mitigate any blowback on EGX trading volumes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tax policy has focused equally on squeezing money out of the existing tax base \u2014 and on widening it:<\/strong> A <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/2913d0ad-bce1-47be-8b4e-7b1388e7a610\">10% levy<\/a> is being placed on all new mobile phones that aren\u2019t SICO-made, while plans are afoot to impose a 2% development fee on durable goods and soft drinks, and a 5-20% tax on the costs of entry to entertainment venues and leisure facilities. Others are being brought into the tax system, including <a href=\"https:\/\/egyptindependent.com\/egypts-tax-authority-calls-on-private-tutors-to-pay-their-taxes\/\">illegal private tutors<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ccf35d8e-673e-45ba-b632-634cf3767612\">online content creators<\/a>. The latter is also being asked to charge and remit VAT on ad revenue made through online platforms such as Google. New <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/9bf7988d-19f6-45a6-ada1-65d7c23ec723\">customs<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/bd3ab8f6-e6bc-4562-9904-eb485b5cb217\">e-invoicing<\/a> systems being rolled out aim to make it much harder for tax cheats to avoid paying the state its due.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Speaking of rising prices:<\/strong> Egyptian consumer prices haven\u2019t been immune from rising commodity prices abroad, which have pushed up the headline rate of inflation, particularly in the second half of the year when rising food and energy costs drove the rate to a 20-month high of 6.6%. Inflationary pressures seem to have so far been contained, with consumer prices never rising above the lower bound of the central bank\u2019s 7% (\u00b12%) target range and the headline rate currently averaging 5.5% for the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rates have remained unchanged:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt has kept interest rates on hold since November 2020, prioritizing foreign inflows and an inflation hedge over further economic stimulus.<\/p>\n<p><strong>And this has been good for the carry trade:<\/strong> Egypt has maintained the world\u2019s highest real interest rate through the year, ensuring a steady stream of portfolio inflows into local debt by investors searching for yield in a world of historically-low rates. Portfolio investments also turned positive in <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/677e0719-a936-451b-bd5b-cdb8e758d77e\">FY2020-21<\/a>, recording a net inflow of USD 18.7 bn this year, compared to a net outflow of USD 7.3 bn in the FY2019-20. Total investment in Egyptian debt hit <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/77f1fef1-7022-4da7-a44e-d3ae01256eac\">a record USD 33 bn<\/a> in August, though since then we haven\u2019t heard anything from the Finance Ministry or the central bank, giving us little indication of how <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/01ff5ec8-6224-4431-8796-fcb03e034f26\">the beginning of the Fed taper<\/a> in November has impacted inflows.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Foreign direct investment, on the other hand, has slipped:<\/strong> After showing signs of recovery at the tail-end of last year, FDI flows went into reverse during the first half of the year, falling to a mere USD 427 mn in 2Q, down two-thirds from 2Q2020 (aka the lockdown quarter) and the lowest quarterly figure since 4Q2011. The central bank is yet to publish the balance of payments figures for the third quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our 2021 recovery by the numbers: Following a difficult first year of the pandemic, 2021 saw the economy starting to get back on track. Loosening international travel restrictions, stabilizing energy markets, and the global vaccine rollout have underpinned a resurgence in economic growth this year. Tourists are returning, exports are back to pre-pandemic levels, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":554254,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8971],"tags":[271,7106,302,104,93,72,348,182,349,100,69,3135],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-554253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-year-in-review-macro-2","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-debt","tag-earnings","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-policy","tag-tax","tag-year-in-review-macro","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"db3e7873-e17d-4691-b57e-b53c6a4734e7","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/498.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[554232],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The macro picture of our 2021 recovery - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/27\/the-macro-picture-of-our-2021-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The macro picture of our 2021 recovery\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our 2021 recovery by the numbers: Following a difficult first year of the pandemic, 2021 saw the economy starting to get back on track. 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Stimulus measures pushed out by the central bank and the Finance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/173.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571844,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/02\/egypt-pakistan-are-efgs-top-frontier-and-emerging-markets-picks-after-sell-off-and-earnings-downgrade\/","url_meta":{"origin":554253,"position":1},"title":"Egypt, Pakistan are EFG\u2019s top frontier and emerging markets picks after sell-off and earnings downgrade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt and Pakistan are EFG\u2019s top frontier and emerging markets picks after sell-off and earnings downgrade: Egypt and Pakistan\u2019s equity markets \u201coffer good value\u201d in the medium-term after the covid-19 sell-off and a downgrade in earnings projections, EFG Hermes said in a note yesterday. EFG\u2019s price-earnings ratio for Egypt this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/15.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565300,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/31\/are-we-in-a-global-housing-bubble\/","url_meta":{"origin":554253,"position":2},"title":"Are we in a global housing bubble?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"A boom in global house prices is causing concern about a potential real estate bubble, with government stimulus and WFH policies driving unprecedented growth in the sector over the past year, the Wall Street Journal reports. Prices were already high in Europe, Asia and Canada in the lead-up to 2020,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/602.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565050,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/sp-says-ems-have-a-long-way-to-go-to-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":554253,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P says EMs have a long way to go to recovery","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Governments in the emerging world have few bullets left in the policy chamber to fight the pandemic, making a speedy vaccine rollout and a swift recovery all the more important, S&P Global has said in its 2021 Global Outlook. \u201cMost EMs have limited flexibility to provide additional fiscal or monetary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/476.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563903,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/28\/economy-to-grow-4-5-5-in-2q2021-rencap\/","url_meta":{"origin":554253,"position":4},"title":"Economy to grow 4.5-5% in 2Q2021 -RenCap","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Egyptian economy will grow by 4.5-5% in 2Q2021 and will continue to gather momentum through the rest of the year, Renaissance Capital economists said during a press briefing yesterday. 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The global economy is on course to contract by 6% this year but if a second wave hits before the end of the year activity will tank even further, falling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/137.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554253","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=554253"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554253\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/554232"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/554254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=554253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=554253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=554253"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=554253"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=554253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}