{"id":554015,"date":"2021-12-16T04:04:16","date_gmt":"2021-12-16T04:04:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/16\/fitch-thinks-egypt-could-be-up-for-another-imf-program\/"},"modified":"2021-12-16T04:04:16","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T04:04:16","slug":"fitch-thinks-egypt-could-be-up-for-another-imf-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/16\/fitch-thinks-egypt-could-be-up-for-another-imf-program\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch thinks Egypt could be up for another IMF program"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt\u2019s high exposure to external financing could lead the government to seek a <\/strong>fresh IMF program<\/strong>, especially in the event of a \u201cliquidity shock,\u201d according to a recent Fitch Ratings report<\/a>. The report points to less accommodative global liquidity and monetary conditions as being key risk factors for Egypt, despite us having \u201crebuilt its external financial buffers using non-resident inflows and other external funding.\u201d<\/p>\n

This could be a non-loan program, which we were discussing with the IMF before the pandemic:<\/strong> Fitch does not specify what kind of IMF support Egypt might resort to, but a non-loan arrangement was on the table<\/a> for Egypt in 2019 following the expiration of the three-year USD 12 bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The Finance Ministry had suggested it was eyeing a two-year cooperation agreement with the lender and was hoping to secure an agreement<\/a> by March 2020. There have been no updates on the talks since.<\/p>\n

Why could a program be necessary now? <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s recent increased attractiveness to foreign investors has been buoyed by its \u201crecord reforms, IMF programmes, high real interest rates and a stable exchange rate.\u201d But with the end of the EFF and the rising pressure on interest rates as a result of inflation driving central banks and the US Federal Reserve to hike rates next year, the factors helping Egypt regain its footing have become less supportive, Fitch says.<\/p>\n

Foreign investments had <\/strong>rebounded<\/a><\/strong> since the start of covid-19, but they\u2019re still on shaky ground: <\/strong>After faltering at the start of the pandemic, foreign investments have been helping Egypt finance its current account deficit (CAD), which widened due to strong domestic demand and tourism revenues taking a nose dive at the height of the pandemic, although those are now en route to recovery<\/a>. However, the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) foreign reserves are significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, Fitch notes. Net foreign assets turned negative in October at USD -4.8 bn.<\/p>\n

External shock risk is nothing new:<\/strong> After recently affirming<\/a> Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a stable outlook, Fitch had warned that inflows \u201ccould reverse in response to any confidence shock or shift in global liquidity conditions, putting pressure on foreign exchange liquidity, interest rates and the exchange rate.\u201d Foreign holdings of government debt had reached nearly USD 34 bn by September, rising from less than USD 10 bn in the wake of the covid market crash.<\/p>\n

The good news:<\/strong> Egypt has built strong relationships with bilateral and multilateral lenders and proved its mettle with reforms, which it continued to pursue even after the expiry of our last IMF program, Fitch says. Our imminent inclusion in the JPMorgan GBI-EM bond index<\/a> next month, as well as non-market financing, and improvements to market structure will provide \u201csome structural support to investor demand,\u201d the report reads. \u201cCADs should moderate with recovery in external demand and tourism,\u201d it adds. The government\u2019s economic reform agenda<\/a> also received a nod and is expected to continue supporting Egypt\u2019s \u201cexternal resilience.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s high exposure to external financing could lead the government to seek a fresh IMF program, especially in the event of a \u201cliquidity shock,\u201d according to a recent Fitch Ratings report. The report points to less accommodative global liquidity and monetary conditions as being key risk factors for Egypt, despite us having \u201crebuilt its external […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":554016,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,7106,104,72,8565,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-554015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1e5bd130-ebea-4905-9027-830d99a302d6","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/363.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[554009],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nFitch thinks Egypt could be up for another IMF program - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/16\/fitch-thinks-egypt-could-be-up-for-another-imf-program\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch thinks Egypt could be up for another IMF program\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s high exposure to external financing could lead the government to seek a fresh IMF program, especially in the event of a \u201cliquidity shock,\u201d according to a recent Fitch Ratings report. 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The rating agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B+ rating on robust economic growth and \u201cstrong international support\u201d from Gulf allies and multilateral partners but warned that it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/154.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544714,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/17\/imf-program-rate-hikes-in-the-cards-as-ukraine-war-pressures-budget-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":554015,"position":2},"title":"IMF program + rate hikes in the cards as Ukraine war pressures budget -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch sees new IMF program, rate hike as Ukraine conflict raises pressure on gov\u2019t finances: Lower tourism inflows, higher food prices and tighter financial conditions driven by the war in Ukraine will put pressure on Egypt\u2019s fiscal position, increasing the likelihood of Egypt taking on new funding from the International\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571557,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/17\/egypts-fresh-imf-support-packages-will-help-boost-investor-confidence-portfolio-inflows-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":554015,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s fresh IMF support packages will help boost investor confidence, portfolio inflows -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Fresh funding from the IMF will help boost investor confidence in Egypt as portfolio outflows from emerging markets begin to reverse, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday. The government received last week a USD 2.8 bn rapid financing instrument (RFI) and is looking for as much as USD 5.5 bn under\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/170.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558308,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/04\/credit-risk-is-falling-in-the-banking-sector\/","url_meta":{"origin":554015,"position":4},"title":"Credit risk is falling in the banking sector","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"An improving operating environment since 3Q2020 has eased pressure on Egyptian banks\u2019 credit profiles and ratings, according to a Fitch Ratings report yesterday. Fitch had in July revised its outlook for the banking sector from negative to stable, \u201creflecting the stable outlook on the operating environment,\u201d according to the report.What\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/83.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":616237,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/03\/investors-turn-more-bullish-on-egypts-economy-as-proceeds-from-ras-el-hekma-sale-enter-state-coffers\/","url_meta":{"origin":554015,"position":5},"title":"Investors turn more bullish on Egypt\u2019s economy as proceeds from Ras El Hekma sale enter state coffers","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 March 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt received USD 10 bn from Ras El Hekma sale over the weekend in addition to USD 520 mn from the historic hotels sale","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/15.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=554015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554015\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/554009"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/554016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=554015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=554015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=554015"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=554015"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=554015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}