{"id":553859,"date":"2021-12-12T04:00:59","date_gmt":"2021-12-12T04:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/12\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-keep-rates-steady\/"},"modified":"2021-12-12T04:00:59","modified_gmt":"2021-12-12T04:00:59","slug":"enterprise-poll-cbe-to-keep-rates-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/12\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-keep-rates-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to keep rates steady"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave interest <\/strong>rates on <\/strong>hold when it meets this Thursday <\/strong>as the bank looks to protect the economic recovery and maintain attractive real rates for the carry trade \u2014 while continuing to keep an eye on inflation. All 11 <\/sup>economists and analysts we surveyed in our regular interest rate poll expect the CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee to maintain rates as lower-than-expected November inflation figures give it breathing room to hold off any changes. Meanwhile, the current economic outlook is somewhat uncertain amid the spread of the new Omicron variant, whose severity and risk level remain unclear.<\/p>\n

Where rates stand now: <\/strong>The overnight deposit rate is at 8.25%, the lending rate at 9.25% and the main operation and discount rates are at 8.75%. The central bank slashed rates by 400 bps last year, including an emergency 300 bps cut in March<\/a>, to protect the economy from the fallout from covid-19. It has since maintained rates for eight consecutive meetings, including its most recent in October, amid concerns about an increase in inflation.<\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures have cooled off here at home: <\/strong>Annual urban inflation slowed for the second month running in November as pressure on food prices continued to ease, with the headline rate falling to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the central bank\u2019s target range of 5-9% for 4Q2022.<\/p>\n

The unexpected curb on price rises \u201cgives a breather from the inflation tensions caused by global chaos,\u201d<\/strong> according to Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Israa Ahmed, who joined most analysts in expecting inflation to remain within the CBE\u2019s target of 7% (+\/-2%) in the coming months. The headline urban rate \u201cmight hover around 6% YoY in December,\u201d according to Ahmed, while HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss said the firm expects inflation to average 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021.<\/p>\n

Keeping rates steady also takes consumer-led economic recovery into consideration:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s still-high real interest rate could have given the CBE room to enact a cut, but protecting consumer appetite is also likely to play into the MPC\u2019s decision to keep rates on hold, said Suez Canal Bank\u2019s Mohamed Abdel Aal. Maintaining rates would also help maintain remittance inflows and protect portfolio investments, Abdel Aal said.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s not time to drop the ball: <\/strong>Global inflationary pressures will continue to drive CBE policy decisions going into the new year, despite the slight cooling-off in domestic prices in recent months, according to analysts. The CBE will likely continue to keep a close eye on price rises amid a murky picture globally, which Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Khalid suggests is giving the CBE \u201cmore reason than ever\u201d to keep rates on hold.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe CBE\u2019s task of keeping inflation expectations within its target will face increasing challenges in 2022.<\/strong> Thus, we do not expect any shift in its monetary stance until it gets a clearer picture of the outlook of global inflation drivers and its spill-over effect on the country,\u201d said Prime Holding\u2019s Mona Bedeir. Mubasher\u2019s Mohamed Magdy, meanwhile, expects inflation to rise to hit 7% in 2H2021-2022, averaging 6.7% over FY2021-2022. Capital Economics also expects the headline inflation rate will \u201cremain elevated over the rest of this year and into 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hiking rates could affect the recovery amid Omicron: <\/strong>While current high rates help protect foreign inflows, any further hike would add a significant burden on the economy by raising the cost of the debt-servicing burden as well as private-sector borrowing, potentially denting growth, Magdy said.<\/p>\n

Although GDP projections for the coming year are strong, they are also \u201csubject to risks arising<\/strong> from the uncertainties surrounding the severity of the new coronavirus variant Omicron,\u201d according to Magdy, who noted that relatively low vaccination rates put the recovery at greater risk of being thrown off course by Omicron. This uncertainty gives further impetus for the CBE to adopt a wait-and-see approach, said EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha.<\/p>\n

While global economic forces make a rate cut out of the question: <\/strong>Protecting real rates \u2014 which count among the highest in the world and ensure that our carry trade remains attractive to foreign investors \u2014 remains key, especially considering the morse hawkish turn from the US Federal Reserve in recent weeks. On the flipside, Arqaam\u2019s Khalid suggests that even a more hawkish Fed isn\u2019t reason enough to move interest rates here at home, saying that the CBE can counteract the effects of slightly higher US rates through open market operations.<\/p>\n

With all this in mind, interest rates could stay where they are for the foreseeable future:<\/strong> The CBE is unlikely to make any changes to interest rates as long as inflation remains below the midpoint of its target range, CI Capital\u2019s Sara Saada said. Capital Economics also doesn\u2019t expect any monetary easing before \u201clater next year,\u201d while Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Ahmed sees the CBE maintaining rates \u201cfor as long as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday as the bank looks to protect the economic recovery and maintain attractive real rates for the carry trade \u2014 while continuing to keep an eye on inflation. All 11 economists and analysts we surveyed in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":553860,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,611,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-553859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"15e1059e-0499-4fda-b29a-a3100b36af63","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/290.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[553855],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to keep rates steady - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/12\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-keep-rates-steady\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to keep rates steady\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday as the bank looks to protect the economic recovery and maintain attractive real rates for the carry trade \u2014 while continuing to keep an eye on inflation. 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