{"id":553615,"date":"2021-12-09T03:42:11","date_gmt":"2021-12-09T03:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/09\/are-we-going-to-see-a-faster-than-expected-taper\/"},"modified":"2021-12-09T03:42:11","modified_gmt":"2021-12-09T03:42:11","slug":"are-we-going-to-see-a-faster-than-expected-taper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/09\/are-we-going-to-see-a-faster-than-expected-taper\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we going to see a faster-than-expected taper?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Is the Fed set to press fast-forward on its stimulus wind-down?<\/strong> Economists expect the US Federal Reserve to taper its bond-buying program in order to start raising interest rates much more rapidly than expected, according to a Financial Times poll<\/a>. More than half of the 48 respondents said the Fed would likely stop its stimulus purchases entirely by the end of March, months ahead of the schedule announced by the central bank<\/a> in November.<\/p>\n

Half of the economists surveyed now also expect a rate rise in 2Q2022<\/strong> \u2014 an outcome just 20% of them believed likely three months ago. The predictions come as Fed head Jay Powell and other officials turn hawkish<\/a> on sustained US inflation, as a stronger labor market leaves the bank more wiggle room to clamp down on rising prices.<\/p>\n

A steeper taper could spell turbulence for our bond market: <\/strong>The Omicron variant and the decision to keep Powell as Fed head for another term fueled risk-off sentiment at the end of November, leading to a wobble in emerging-market debt ETFs<\/a>. Egyptian assets saw net outflows of USD 19.3 mn, or 12%, in the last week of last month. That said, Egyptian assets held in ETFs are peanuts compared to the bns of USD invested directly in local-currency bonds \u2014 and one of the highest real interest rates in the world<\/a> should ensure we can still compete in a world of higher US rates.<\/p>\n

Speaking of our attractive interest rates: Keep an eye out for November\u2019s inflation figures due to be released tomorrow. <\/strong>Further rises in inflation could soon start to make the EGP less attractive, especially as the US and other countries begin to roll back covid stimulus and raise rates.<\/p>\n

The Saudi stock exchange surged on its trading debut, <\/strong>with shares in the bourse closing up 13% after rising as much as 22% following the exchange\u2019s USD 1 bn IPO, Bloomberg reports. The Tadawul\u2019s float marks the biggest exchange IPO since Euronext went public in 2014, as investors were persuaded to buy in based on bumper YTD gains amid the so-called Middle East IPO rush. The Saudi exchange has 50 IPO applications in the pipeline for 2022, the bourse\u2019s CEO told Reuters<\/a> on the day of its debut. The Tadawul is also considering following our lead<\/a> and introducing SPACs to the kingdom, Khalid al-Hussan told the newswire.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,451<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: +5.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 15.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 15.76<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD at CIB<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 15.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 15.76<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates CBE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,992<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: +26.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,954<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +77.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,197<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +28.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,701<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +25.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,337<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

- (YTD: +13.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 72.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.82<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 1,784.80<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 50,733.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.45%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.8% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of EGP 1.24 bn (12.1% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 5.6% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Ezz Steel (+6.2%), Cleopatra Hospital (+4.7%) and Rameda (+3.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Speed Medical (-20.0%), Heliopolis Housing (-7.0%) and Fawry (-6.4%).<\/p>\n

Major Asian benchmarks are largely <\/strong>(if, uhm, \u201cflatt-ish-ly\u201d \u2014 is that a word?) in the green this morning, with only the Nikkei flirting with the red. Futures suggest much of Europe and Wall Street will (weakly) open in positive territory later today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is the Fed set to press fast-forward on its stimulus wind-down? Economists expect the US Federal Reserve to taper its bond-buying program in order to start raising interest rates much more rapidly than expected, according to a Financial Times poll. More than half of the 48 respondents said the Fed would likely stop its stimulus […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[116,3071,72,119,349,1424,122,388,3072],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-553615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-china","tag-didi-chuxing","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-jerome-powell","tag-planet-finance","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-variable-interest-entities","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1e0ab7c5-49b1-4497-a50e-0dd332ba9641","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[553593],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nAre we going to see a faster-than-expected taper? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/09\/are-we-going-to-see-a-faster-than-expected-taper\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are we going to see a faster-than-expected taper?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is the Fed set to press fast-forward on its stimulus wind-down? 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Policymakers are \u201cclosely monitoring\u201d the potential effects of rising US rates on Egypt\u2019s borrowing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558706,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/23\/are-us-equities-in-for-a-slump-when-fed-unwinds-stimulus\/","url_meta":{"origin":553615,"position":2},"title":"Are US equities in for a slump when Fed unwinds stimulus?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"US investors and stocks: hang on tight and don\u2019t let go. Expectations are for a bumpier ride in US equities as growth slows, the delta variant spreads, and the Federal Reserve seems to be preparing to taper stimulus measures, according to Reuters. Analysts say that Wall Street may be turning\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557917,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/wall-street-banks-are-getting-nervy-on-stocks-economists-are-calling-the-feds-bluff-on-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":553615,"position":3},"title":"Wall Street banks are getting nervy on stocks + economists are calling the Fed\u2019s bluff on interest rates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Have US equities peaked? Some analysts are beginning to think so, after US stocks last week saw their worst performance since June, according to the Financial Times. The S&P 500 closed down 1.7% over the week on Friday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.6%, as investors started to take heed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/487.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542768,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/16\/four-fed-rate-hikes-in-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":553615,"position":4},"title":"Four Fed rate hikes in 2022?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US Federal Reserve could start raising interest rates in March: Fed Governor Lael Brainard is the latest official to signal that the Fed is leaning toward a March \u201clift-off\u201d on planned rate hikes. At a congressional hearing to confirm her nomination for another term as Fed vice chair, Brainard\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":614350,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/31\/economists-expect-an-uneventful-fed-meeting-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":553615,"position":5},"title":"Economists expect an uneventful Fed meeting ahead","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 January 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s Fed day: The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates later today following the end of its two-day policy meeting. No cuts just yet: Economists expect the Fed to leave interest rates at their current 22-year high of 5.25-5.5%, writes the Financial Times. Economists are instead\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/2659.JPG?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=553615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553615\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/553593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=553615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=553615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=553615"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=553615"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=553615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}