{"id":552839,"date":"2022-10-03T13:20:39","date_gmt":"2022-10-03T13:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/03\/explaining-the-uks-bond-market-meltdown\/"},"modified":"2022-10-03T13:20:39","modified_gmt":"2022-10-03T13:20:39","slug":"explaining-the-uks-bond-market-meltdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/03\/explaining-the-uks-bond-market-meltdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Explaining the UK\u2019s bond market meltdown"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The UK came close to having its \u201cLehman moment\u201d last week \u2014 here\u2019s what <\/strong>happened. <\/strong>\u201cAfter 35 years in the industry, I\u2019d never seen anything like it.\u201d These were the words<\/a> of one fund manager in the wake of last week\u2019s historic UK government bond rout, a sell-off of such magnitude that it came close to causing a meltdown in the country\u2019s pensions industry. According to industry insiders, without the Bank of England\u2019s emergency intervention, swathes of the UK financial system was heading for collapse.<\/p>\n

No ordinary budget:<\/strong> The turmoil was triggered by the unveiling of the Truss administration\u2019s spending plans in a fiscal statement that may go down as one of the most ill-timed and destructive in the country\u2019s history. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng\u2019s so-called \u201cmini budget\u201d combined an historic intervention<\/a> in the energy market to protect households and businesses from soaring gas prices with a larger-than-expected raft of tax cuts<\/a>. Crucially, the government failed to cost any of its spending plans, and broke with convention by not providing any budget or economic forecasts. All of this was delivered at a time of market unease about the pace of rising interest rates and a looming recession in the UK.<\/p>\n

The market response was fast and furious:<\/strong> The two days following the statement saw a fire sale of UK assets as investors panicked over the implications of hundreds of bns of GBP of unfunded borrowing on the country\u2019s finances. The GBP flash-crashed more than 4% to hit a record low<\/a> against the USD and bond yields jumped by the most on record as investors dumped bonds. In just two trading sessions, rates on five-year bonds leapt more than 100 bps as prices collapsed.<\/p>\n

This wasn\u2019t good news for the nation\u2019s pensions industry:<\/strong> Pension funds invest a large part of their capital into government bonds because they are considered \u2014 in normal times at least \u2014 one of the safest asset classes. In particular, funds target long-dated bonds which provide a stable income that allow them to meet their liabilities years into the future.<\/p>\n

Financialization was supposed to make the industry safer:<\/strong> Last week\u2019s pensions crisis was triggered by a little-known area of the industry known as liability-driven investing (LDI), a strategy used by certain types<\/a> of funds to hedge against liability risk. The goal of LDI is to align current and future liabilities, minimizing risks associated with rising interest rates, inflation, and people living longer than expected. They do this by going to LDI funds \u2014 operated by some of the biggest financial services firms in the UK including BlackRock, Legal & General, and Schroders \u2014 to purchase derivatives like interest rate swaps and repurchase agreements (repos).<\/p>\n

The LDI market is huge:<\/strong> As of August around GBP 1.5<\/a>tn of<\/a>liabilities<\/a> were hedged using LDI strategies. To put this in perspective, this is almost four times greater than Egypt\u2019s GDP in 2021. In UK terms, it\u2019s equal to around 40%<\/a> of the entire institutional asset management market.<\/p>\n

The caveat:<\/strong> Not only are these derivatives sensitive to bond market volatility, but they allow pension funds to leverage their positions by up to four times<\/a>, greatly magnifying losses when the market moves against their positions.<\/p>\n

Cue margin calls:<\/strong> Pension funds were hit with emergency margin calls from LDI providers last week as soaring bond yields caused them to take heavy losses on their derivatives contracts. To find the cash for the collateral calls, pension funds were forced to sell bonds, causing yields to rise further, and producing a doom loop pushing them closer to insolvency.<\/p>\n

The Bank of England intervenes:<\/strong> A few days into the crisis, the Bank of England was forced to intervene to prevent pension funds from collapsing. Just days before it was supposed to begin tightening its balance sheet, Governor Andrew Bailey announced<\/a> a temporary emergency GBP 65 bn bond-buying program to calm the markets and lower what he called a \u201cmaterial risk to UK financial stability.\u201d It was a close call: Inside sources said<\/a> that the sector was just hours away from a systemic event.<\/p>\n

A rock and a hard place:<\/strong> The government\u2019s policy error has forced the Bank of England into reckoning with financial instability at a time when it has to tighten financial conditions to curb soaring inflation, Mohamed El Erian told Bloomberg last week (watch, runtime: 2:55<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Why do we care about this? Contagion.<\/strong> The importance of the UK financial sector to global markets means that a local crisis is unlikely to remain local. The collapse of UK bonds and the GBP ricocheted into global markets, triggering sell-offs in equities and bonds<\/a> worldwide as investors grew fearful<\/a> about financial stability.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t over:<\/strong> Unless the government makes a significant u-turn to calm the markets, the crisis in the bond market will likely resume when the Bank of England stops buying bonds on 14 October. Whether or not that happens, the consensus<\/a> is that the bank will now need to raise interest rates by 75 bps in November, and the idea of a huge 100-bps hike no longer seems far fetched.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UK came close to having its \u201cLehman moment\u201d last week \u2014 here\u2019s what happened. \u201cAfter 35 years in the industry, I\u2019d never seen anything like it.\u201d These were the words of one fund manager in the wake of last week\u2019s historic UK government bond rout, a sell-off of such magnitude that it came close […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":552840,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250],"tags":[2494,82,633,119,643,190,112],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-552839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro-picture","tag-bank-of-england","tag-bonds","tag-enterprisepm","tag-financial-markets","tag-macro-picture","tag-social-welfare","tag-uk","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ee92ec79-abd6-4915-914a-af2dc1415707","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/406.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[552829],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nExplaining 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There are some interesting moves on logistics and infrastructure investments happening here on the home front, while the UK is still capturing the imagination of the international business press as PM Liz Truss\u2019 government flip-flops on some very controversial policies. Oh, and it\u2019s Nobel Prize week.THE BIG\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565492,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/12\/asset-purchase-programs-heat-up-in-emdes\/","url_meta":{"origin":552839,"position":4},"title":"Asset purchase programs heat up in EMDEs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Uncharted territory: How asset purchase programs became a thing for EMDEs: Amid the economic fallout from the pandemic, a wave of asset purchase programs in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) over the past year has helped to instill some stability in financial markets, but their long-term macro consequences remain\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/397.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598051,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/13\/emerging-markets-risk-widening-infrastructure-gaps-as-public-investment-falls-to-record-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":552839,"position":5},"title":"Emerging markets risk widening infrastructure gaps as public investment falls to record low","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets risk widening infrastructure gaps as public investment falls to record low: Emerging market governments are spending less than 1% of GDP on public investment for the first time ever, marking a historic low, according to IMF data cited by the Financial Times. Infrastructure such as transport, hospitals, schools\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/2754.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552839\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/552829"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552839"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=552839"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=552839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}