{"id":552687,"date":"2022-09-21T13:11:20","date_gmt":"2022-09-21T13:11:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/21\/what-the-usds-rally-means-for-the-global-economy-emerging-markets\/"},"modified":"2022-09-21T13:11:20","modified_gmt":"2022-09-21T13:11:20","slug":"what-the-usds-rally-means-for-the-global-economy-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/21\/what-the-usds-rally-means-for-the-global-economy-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"What the USD\u2019s rally means for the global economy + emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The USD has been on a tear this year. That strength is problematic for emerging<\/strong> markets and the global economy at large.<\/strong> Spurred by successive interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve as the central bank pulled out all the stops to cap soaring inflation, the greenback has been rallying since the beginning of the year, with the Bloomberg USD Spot Index<\/a> up some 12% year-to-date. The currency\u2019s rise, while beneficial in some ways for the US economy, is a growing source of concern for the global economy as a whole, and emerging markets in particular.<\/p>\n

First thing\u2019s first: Why the USD has been rallying so much to begin with:<\/strong> The Fed kicked off a monetary tightening cycle at the beginning of the year to quell record-high inflation. Although the rest of the world\u2019s central banks \u2014 including Egypt\u2019s \u2014 have also begun raising interest rates, the US is outpacing most, making the USD an ever-more attractive safe haven. The Fed is widely expected to announce today its third successive 75-bps hike when the meeting wraps tomorrow. Higher interest rates \u201csparked selling in stocks and bonds, driving up the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves with expectations for Fed policy,\u201d leading investors to seek shelter in the USD, the Wall Street Journal<\/a> notes.<\/p>\n

Additionally, there are several other fundamentals underpinning the USD<\/strong>, including the strong jumping-off point from the US\u2019 covid-19 macroeconomic response and the fact that the US is not exposed to \u201cegregiously expensive foreign energy,\u201d former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cAll of those various factors are making [the US] a safe haven, a mecca for capital \u2014 and that\u2019s causing resources to flow into the USD,\u201d Summers said.<\/p>\n

What does all this mean for the US? It depends whether you\u2019re on Wall Street or Main Street.<\/strong> For Main Street \u2014 finance-world speak for smaller businesses that reflect the broader or real economy \u2014 a strengthening USD means higher purchasing power<\/a> for US consumers thanks to imports being cheaper. But on Wall Street, investors are growing increasingly concerned that the strengthening greenback will weigh on US corporate earnings and the global economy, particularly as emerging markets reckon with higher debt costs and a weaker lower currency, the Wall Street Journal<\/a> notes.<\/p>\n

The outlook for emerging markets looks far <\/strong>bleaker<\/strong>:<\/strong> A strengthening USD is \u201ca major headwind for local currency assets in emerging markets,\u201d particularly as the currency\u2019s appreciation comes at the same time as a slowdown in global economic growth and higher interest rates in developed markets, Tellimer Research Strategy and Head of Equity Research Hasnain Malik wrote in a note.<\/p>\n

The upside:<\/strong> Equities and currencies in emerging markets both \u201clook cheap,\u201d Malik writes.<\/p>\n

The caveat:<\/strong> Currencies being cheap isn\u2019t enough, and must be \u201caccompanied by credible monetary policy and a manageable level of external account pressure,\u201d he notes. And for many emerging markets, any upside from having a weaker currency and therefore more attractive export prospects is outweighed by the higher cost of USD borrowing, the Economist<\/a> says.<\/p>\n

This is all coming at a time when debt piles are quite large, especially because of covid-era borrowing:<\/strong> There is currently some USD 83 bn-worth of USD-denominated debt across emerging markets that will by due by the end of next year, according to data from the Institute of International Finance cited by Brookings<\/a>. And many markets aren\u2019t ready to face that debt pile, University of Chicago\u2019s Booth School of Business finance professor Raghuram Rajan tells the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. \u201cMany countries have not been through a cycle of much higher interest rates since the 1990s. There\u2019s a lot of debt out there augmented by the borrowing in the pandemic,\u201d which is expected to \u201cwiden\u201d the stress in emerging markets.<\/p>\n

What happens now?<\/strong> Further USD appreciation could be \u201cthe straw that breaks the camel\u2019s back, cautions Oxford Economics\u2019 head of emerging markets research. \u201cYou\u2019re already getting frontier markets on the tipping point toward crisis, the last thing they need is a strong USD.\u201d Economists and policymakers are considering the possibility of a repeat of the 1985 Plaza Accord<\/a>, which saw the US, France, West Germany, the UK, and Japan coordinating to depreciate the USD relative to the JPY and Germany\u2019s Deutsch mark. However, the possibility of such a coordinated effort appears to be relatively slim, as the contemporary global economy and political dynamics are vastly different<\/a> from where they were some four decades ago.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The USD has been on a tear this year. That strength is problematic for emerging markets and the global economy at large. Spurred by successive interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve as the central bank pulled out all the stops to cap soaring inflation, the greenback has been rallying since the beginning of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":552688,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250],"tags":[380,104,115,633,349,643,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-552687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro-picture","tag-currencies","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterprisepm","tag-interest-rates","tag-macro-picture","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4cbded47-2743-462d-a50f-5b1bb89f57f0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/540.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[552677],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat the USD\u2019s rally means for the global economy + emerging markets - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/21\/what-the-usds-rally-means-for-the-global-economy-emerging-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What the USD\u2019s rally means for the global economy + emerging markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The USD has been on a tear this year. 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Emerging markets seemed destined for alignment with the West earlier this century,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/3044.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594326,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":552687,"position":1},"title":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says: Of all the macro issues emerging markets have to worry about, the biggest concern for them at the current moment is their exposure to USD-denominated external debt as the USD strengthens, Fitch Solutions\u2019 Michael Larson said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2055.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":580604,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":552687,"position":2},"title":"What will impact emerging markets in 2023?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Last year was a tough one for emerging markets. What will 2023 bring? Emerging markets had a rough ride last year. Aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve combined with inflation and commodities shocks to bring currency woes, losses in stocks and bonds, and even debt defaults for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/620.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554578,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/sp-trims-em-growth-outlook-for-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":552687,"position":3},"title":"S&P trims EM growth outlook for 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets are walking into the new year with a lower growth outlook from S&P Global Ratings, which revised downwards its growth forecast for emerging markets by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. The ratings agency attributes the revision to the pandemic\u2019s overstay and a slowdown in China for the downgrade,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/677.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598393,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/23\/trade-tensions-are-starting-to-take-their-toll-on-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":552687,"position":4},"title":"Trade tensions are starting to take their toll on emerging markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Trade tensions are starting to take their toll on emerging markets: Emerging markets are beginning to feel the strain as escalating trade tensions cause global demand to weaken further, Hung Tran, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, writes in the Financial Times. Many EM economies are dependent on exporting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/2688.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593065,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/17\/surging-debt-levels-in-emerging-markets-hit-record-usd-71-4-tn-in-2q2019-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":552687,"position":5},"title":"Surging debt levels in emerging markets hit record USD 71.4 tn in 2Q2019 -IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Surging debt levels in emerging markets hit record USD 71.4 tn in 2Q2019 -IIF: Total debt owed by emerging market businesses, governments and households reached a record USD 71.4 tn in 2Q2019, amounting to around 220% of EM GDP, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The Global Debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2601.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552687\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/552677"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552687"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=552687"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=552687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}