{"id":552388,"date":"2022-08-31T13:17:07","date_gmt":"2022-08-31T13:17:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/31\/are-em-corporates-being-punished-for-being-in-the-wrong-part-of-the-world\/"},"modified":"2022-08-31T13:17:07","modified_gmt":"2022-08-31T13:17:07","slug":"are-em-corporates-being-punished-for-being-in-the-wrong-part-of-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/31\/are-em-corporates-being-punished-for-being-in-the-wrong-part-of-the-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Are EM corporates being punished for being in the wrong part of the world?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> It has been a tough year for emerging markets, but is it now time to invest in EM<\/strong> corporate debt? <\/strong> Foreign investors have been exiting emerging-market assets in droves in recent months, with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve hiking rates, a strengthening USD, supply chain issues, a war in Europe's bread basket, and slowing global growth all putting the asset class under severe pressure. Both equities and bonds have fallen 20% so far this year as the aftershocks of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine ricochet through global markets<\/p>\n

But some investors are now saying that there\u2019s a golden window in the form of EM corporate bonds<\/strong>, according to the Financial Times<\/a>. Over the past ten years, the corporate bond market in the developing world has grown by leaps and bounds, as western investors look for yields they can\u2019t find at home due to low interest rates. JPMorgan\u2019s main EM corporate bond index includes 810 different companies, up from 332 a decade ago, and it has grown into a USD 1.3 tn asset class.<\/p>\n

Gramercy and Vanguard both say EM credits are a good idea: <\/strong>Since the start of the pandemic, EM companies have been remarkably \u201cresilient,\u201d and the level of net leverage is at its lowest in nearly 10 years \u2014 as measured by net debt to earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, and amortization, says Vanguard in a research note<\/a>. Which makes it strange that they haven\u2019t done as well so far this year as their US and European counterparts: The benchmark EM index has been hit hard this year and is now down around 12% year-to-date.<\/p>\n

This comes amid fears of a \u201ccascade of defaults\u201d on EM sovereign debt:<\/strong> The number of emerging markets with sovereign debt trading at distressed levels has more than doubled \u2014 reaching 19 countries \u2014 since the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg<\/a> data. Distressed levels are defined as yields more than 10 percentage points above that of similar-maturity treasuries, which can indicate investors believe default is a real possibility. Some of the countries, like Sri Lanka and Lebanon, have already defaulted on their debt. So far this year, EM bond funds have seen an estimated USD 50 bn<\/a> in withdrawals from foreign investors.<\/p>\n

Despite sovereign difficulties, corporates in EM countries are faring well<\/strong>, Insight Investment\u2019s head of emerging market corporate bonds Rodica Glavan told Citywire<\/a>. She gave the example of the Argentine oil firm YPF, whose country has seen recent reports of inflation of 64% Despite currency fluctuations, supply constraints, and a generally unfavorable macro climate, YPF is thriving. The fundamental performance of oil has been strong over the past year, and the company has been able to generate positive free cash flow while keeping its leverage relatively low.<\/p>\n

Having learned from previous crises, EM <\/strong>corporates<\/strong> are more prepared than ever to face global economic challenges. <\/strong>Despite the gloomy economic forecast for the global economy, the high-yield sector of EM corporates is \u201cpriced for calamity,\u201d John Hancock Investment Management's analystsrecently wrote.<\/a> While emerging market debt has historically been hit hard during global recessions, Glavan agrees that today\u2019s developing enterprises have substantially stronger fundamentals and credit ratios.<\/p>\n

Gramercy thinks that investors are punishing EMs \u201cjust for being in the wrong zip code,\u201d<\/strong> they write in a note<\/a>. \u201cDespite the rising macroeconomic concerns around the world, EM corporates continued to show strong results in 1Q2022,\u201d writes Gramercy. \u201cRevenues and EBITDA increased by 25% year-over-year, driven especially by strong numbers from commodity-exposed companies and partly by the nominal effects of higher inflation. Ebitda margins remain at historically high levels.\u201d<\/p>\n

And EM net debt has been steadily decreasing over the past year:<\/strong> \u201cBeyond that, disciplined capital allocation and sound cost management have led to strong [liquidity] generation, as evidenced by decreasing net debt among EM corporates since 1Q2021,\u201d Gramercy continued. \u201cAcross multiple sectors, pent-up demand amid continuing supply constraints have enabled companies to successfully implement price hikes to offset rising input, transport and labor costs,\u201d Once you take out Chinese real estate companies and anything based in Russia or Ukraine, EM default rates are low, and spreads are wider, as Gramercy points out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It has been a tough year for emerging markets, but is it now time to invest in EM corporate debt? Foreign investors have been exiting emerging-market assets in droves in recent months, with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve hiking rates, a strengthening USD, supply chain issues, a war in Europe's bread basket, and slowing global […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":552389,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[82,115,633,134,2884,262,1510,2883],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-552388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-bonds","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterprisepm","tag-ever-given","tag-gramercy","tag-jpmorgan","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-vanguard","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"54b68fb5-c305-4616-92cf-603e770051f2","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/618.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[552378],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nAre EM corporates being punished for being in the wrong part of the world? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/31\/are-em-corporates-being-punished-for-being-in-the-wrong-part-of-the-world\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are EM corporates being punished for being in the wrong part of the world?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It has been a tough year for emerging markets, but is it now time to invest in EM corporate debt? 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Emerging markets are set to outperform developed markets in 2020, predict 57 global investors, traders and strategists in a Bloomberg survey, with all assets \u2014 currencies, stocks, and bonds \u2014 having rallied this year after 2018\u2019s EM Zombie Apocalypse. Total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/2354.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571854,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/02\/on-the-good-news-front-asia-is-showing-that-em-are-not-being-shut-out-of-the-global-debt-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":552388,"position":2},"title":"On the good news front: Asia is showing that EM are not being shut out of the global debt markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"On the good news front: Asia is showing that EM are not being shut out of the global debt markets. Asian companies are leading what\u2019s looking like a revival in risk appetite among debt investors, says Bloomberg. Corporate USD bond sales, particularly by high-yielding Asian borrowers, hit fresh highs in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/17.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596783,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/08\/emerging-markets-to-reap-the-benefits-of-a-fed-rate-cut-bloomberg-survey\/","url_meta":{"origin":552388,"position":3},"title":"Emerging markets to reap the benefits of a Fed rate cut -Bloomberg survey","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets to reap the benefits of a Fed rate cut -Bloomberg survey: Emerging market equities, bonds, and currencies will reap the benefits if the world\u2019s major central banks go ahead with expected rate cuts, according to a quarterly poll of 42 fund managers, traders, and strategists conducted by Bloomberg.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/2360.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565971,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/19\/with-egypt-as-a-superstar-global-interest-in-frontier-market-debt-is-on-the-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":552388,"position":4},"title":"With Egypt as a superstar, global interest in frontier market debt is on the rise","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Global interest in frontier market debt is rising as investors search for higher-yielding assets, the Financial Times reports. Craig McLeod, head of emerging markets at electronic bond trading platform MarketAxess, says that the world of low interest rates and diminishing returns in traditional fixed-income markets is pushing investors to look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/396.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594648,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/03\/investors-pulled-usd-13-8-bn-from-emerging-markets-in-august-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":552388,"position":5},"title":"Investors pulled USD 13.8 bn from emerging markets in August -IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"IIF tracker confirms EMs might want to wipe August from their memories: Net emerging markets portfolio inflows witnessed their most unfortunate month in August since November 2016, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF) most recent capital flows tracker. Investors pulled out roughly USD 13.8 bn from EM stocks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/248.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552388\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/552378"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552388"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=552388"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=552388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}