{"id":550959,"date":"2022-05-16T13:19:44","date_gmt":"2022-05-16T13:19:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/16\/a-new-bipolar-world-order-in-a-deglobalizing-world\/"},"modified":"2022-05-16T13:19:44","modified_gmt":"2022-05-16T13:19:44","slug":"a-new-bipolar-world-order-in-a-deglobalizing-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/16\/a-new-bipolar-world-order-in-a-deglobalizing-world\/","title":{"rendered":"A new bipolar world order in a deglobalizing world?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> What\u2019s next for the global world order? Bipolarity may be in the offing \u2014 with the<\/strong> two poles being the US and China<\/strong>, suggests President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics Adam Posen in a discussion with Goldman Sachs. Posen suggests that the dual force of the covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war will \u201chasten the corrosion\u201d of globalization \u201cas the world becomes increasingly bifurcated into two economic blocs aligned around the US and China.\u201d<\/p>\n

What do the twin shocks of covid + war have to do with it?<\/strong> The drawbacks of a world that is deeply integrated on the economic side became particularly evident with the onset of the pandemic, which supplied global supply chains and resulted in delays and shortages, and therefore spiking commodity prices, Posen notes. These effects were exacerbated by the political costs of integration as Russia\u2019s invasion in Ukraine led Western countries to impose a series of sanctions and trade bans to apply pressure on Moscow \u2014 but ultimately cut off the supply of critical goods such as oil and gas, wheat<\/a>, and metals<\/a>. \u201cBoth crises have called into question a multi-decade process that has led to the freer flow of goods, services, people, and ideas around the world. In doing so, they\u2019ve raised the prospect that globalization could reverse in the coming years, potentially leading to greater global fragmentation.\u201d<\/p>\n

So is the \u201cgolden age,\u201d so to speak, of globalization really behind us? The jury is out.<\/strong> While Posen suggests that globalization is rapidly eroding, other pundits describe the forward trends in less aggressive terms. Goldman Sachs senior global economist Daan Struyven and Goldman Sachs head of global investment research and chief economist Jan Hatzius postulate that we\u2019ve been seeing an era of \u201cslowbalization,\u201d wherein cross-border flows have slowed, and that we\u2019re moving towards \u201cnewbalization,\u201d which will see the nature and dynamics of globalization shifting, without a net difference in its pace. Others, such as Harvard Kennedy School of Government Professor Dani Rodrik, suggest that we will see a slowdown \u2014 but from a hyperglobalized starting point. \u201cMy guess is that we will try to find a happy medium that avoids some of the excesses of hyperglobalization and the dangers of autarky<\/a>,\u201d Rodrik says.<\/p>\n

The hypothesis that we\u2019re entering an era of deglobalization \u2014 or decoupling \u2014 isn\u2019t necessarily new.<\/strong> Allianz economic advisor Mohamed El Erian is among those who flagged this as a possible scenario moving forward back in the early days of covid-19 in 2020<\/a>, suggesting that continued globalization would be difficult because of the pandemic, which yielded a geopolitical shock and simultaneously affected corporate behavior. Supply chains are going to continue becoming localized as businesses move away from relying on \u201cjust-in-time\u201d models that previously saw them depending greatly on distant markets for much of their inputs and operations, El Erian suggested at the time.<\/p>\n

But there is general consensus that \u201csignificant reshoring\u201d of critical supply chains isn\u2019t something we\u2019re going to see in the short term.<\/strong> Many companies are opting for oversupplied inventories when they can get their hands on the goods and commodities they need, considering the \u201cpunitively high\u201d costs and other shortcomings of reshoring certain supply chains, such as semiconductors. Although the shortage of semiconductors has wreaked havoc for businesses across the world<\/a> and in Egypt alike<\/a>, and some major global corporations are investing heavily<\/a> in domesticating their semiconductor production, it\u2019s a massively capital-intensive venture and requires technology that is not necessarily developed in every market.<\/p>\n

How would this new(ish) global order affect the business world?<\/strong><\/p>\n

#1- Global investments:<\/strong> While countries may be forced to be generally aligned with one pole, it would not necessarily mean that engagement with the other pole would be altogether impossible. And businesses would probably be able to continue working in and selling to markets in opposite poles \u2014 although they \u201cmay need separate lines of production, standards, and networks\u201d for different markets, Posen said. This would translate into a short-term \u201cinvestment boom\u201d as they pour money into building capacity that would make its operations and markets more independent, which would initially support economic growth, but would eventually \u201creduce economies of scale and drive down the real economic returns of such investments,\u201d he suggests.<\/p>\n

#2- Inflation:<\/strong> Remember that commodities supercycle<\/a> that was prophesied last year? It could actually materialize soon, this time driven by \u201cgreat power competition and rising political pressure,\u201d say Goldman Sachs\u2019 commodities researchers and strategists. Deglobalization and a shift towards localized supply chains would fuel price increases by making it pricier to produce physical goods, as \u201ccountries trade greater inflationary pressures for security of supply,\u201d they say.<\/p>\n

#3- The USD\u2019s status as a global currency:<\/strong> Again, there are diverging views on whether the greenback will hold onto its position as the globally dominant currency, which has been a point of contention for years, and for different reasons (see here<\/a> and here<\/a>). As it currently stands, the USD comprises some 59% of global reserves, while the CNY accounts for a very small percentage \u2014 but the USD has been \u201closing ground\u201d over the past few years, and the CNY has been gathering steam. That trajectory could continue to hold up, argues Goldman Sachs co-head of global FX, rates, and EM Strategy Zach Pandl, saying that \u201cUS foreign policy choices may discourage heavy reliance on the USD in some cases.\u201d Countries may take the scenario with Russia as a warning that their reserves being USD-heavy could come back to bite in times of crisis, if their relationship with Washington is not on solid ground, Pandl says. At the same time, China has been moving to \u201cmodernize and open up its financial system,\u201d leading to an influx of fixed income portfolio investments and stiffer competition to the USD. A possible future trend in the world of finance is a shift towards more non-sovereign assets, such as gold, rather than trying to make the right choice of which currency (CNY vs USD vs EUR) to pile into, suggests Posen.<\/p>\n

You can read through the <\/strong>full Top of Mind report<\/a><\/strong>here (pdf)<\/a> or catch the podcast version<\/strong> of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs here (runtime: 27:53<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What\u2019s next for the global world order? Bipolarity may be in the offing \u2014 with the two poles being the US and China, suggests President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics Adam Posen in a discussion with Goldman Sachs. Posen suggests that the dual force of the covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":550960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9595],"tags":[104,633,182,127,1095,239,9242],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-550959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-whats-next-2","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-inflation","tag-politics","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-supply-chain","tag-whats-next","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"64235e73-cd7a-4b64-80f8-1f91654a8b95","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/481.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[550950],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nA new bipolar world order in a deglobalizing world? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/16\/a-new-bipolar-world-order-in-a-deglobalizing-world\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A new bipolar world order in a deglobalizing world?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What\u2019s next for the global world order? 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With the pandemic in its third year, the post-covid recovery has been the primary focus for the global economy, but developing countries and emerging markets are facing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/434.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544686,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":550959,"position":1},"title":"The Russia-Ukraine war will curb our economic growth and hit the budget \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In case Ahmed Kouchouk\u2019s warning wasn\u2019t enough, the IMF also thinks emerging markets including Egypt will need to hedge against the economic risks associated with the war in Ukraine, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 15:43). Egypt\u2019s budget will likely face pressure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/202.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550757,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/20\/war-in-europes-breadbasket-could-send-mns-into-hunger-worldwide\/","url_meta":{"origin":550959,"position":2},"title":"War in Europe\u2019s breadbasket could send mns into hunger worldwide","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The war in Ukraine is bad news for food security: It\u2019s no secret that Russia\u2019s ongoing war in Ukraine is bad for economies the world over. The main worry for most is a slowdown in growth, after the war sent energy and food prices skyrocketing. But while wealthier countries can\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "FOOD SECURITY"","block_context":{"text":"FOOD SECURITY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/food-security\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/515.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544556,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/09\/jpmorgan-thinks-there-is-a-reasonable-probability-that-we-could-start-talks-with-the-imf-on-another-assistance-program-if-global-conditions-continue-to-deteriorate\/","url_meta":{"origin":550959,"position":3},"title":"JPMorgan thinks there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d that we could start talks with the IMF on another assistance program \u2014 if global conditions continue to deteriorate","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Will the Madbouly government open talks with the International Monetary Fund on an assistance package to help us get through the fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine? Analysts at JPMorgan think that there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d in the event that \u201cmarket conditions continue to deteriorate, according to a note\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "EGYPT IN THE NEWS"","block_context":{"text":"EGYPT IN THE NEWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egypt-in-the-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546006,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/20\/imf-upgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-in-2022-despite-a-significant-slowdown-globally\/","url_meta":{"origin":550959,"position":4},"title":"IMF upgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in 2022 despite a \u201csignificant slowdown\u201d globally","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has cut its global GDP forecast for this year and the next as surging inflation and economic fallout from the war in Ukraine hit growth prospects. The Fund revised downwards its growth projections for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook \u2014 that\u2019s 0.8\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/335.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550798,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/27\/the-2022-imf-world-bank-spring-meetings-have-ended-here-are-the-key-takeaways\/","url_meta":{"origin":550959,"position":5},"title":"The 2022 IMF + World Bank Spring Meetings have ended: Here are the key takeaways","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"RECAP \u2014 The IMF \/ World Bank Spring: The war in Ukraine and ensuring food security in developing countries stole most of the attention last week as global financial chiefs descended upon Washington, DC for the IMF \/ World Bank\u2019s annual Spring Meetings. The general outlook this year was grim\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/528.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=550959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550959\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/550950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/550960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=550959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=550959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=550959"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=550959"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=550959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}