{"id":550819,"date":"2022-04-28T13:34:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-28T13:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/em-debt-is-under-pressure-but-after-headwinds-subside-latin-america-could-be-in-for-a-windfall\/"},"modified":"2022-04-28T13:34:00","modified_gmt":"2022-04-28T13:34:00","slug":"em-debt-is-under-pressure-but-after-headwinds-subside-latin-america-could-be-in-for-a-windfall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/em-debt-is-under-pressure-but-after-headwinds-subside-latin-america-could-be-in-for-a-windfall\/","title":{"rendered":"EM debt is under pressure \u2014 but after headwinds subside, Latin America could be in for a windfall"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> US real yields turning positive to raise pressure on EMs:<\/strong> The inflation-adjusted 10-year yield on US treasuries turned briefly positive last week, sounding alarm bells among emerging-market money managers, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. US-based Franklin Templeton said it would cut its positions in high-yield debt, while Fidelity International is betting against EM currencies, as the threat of positive US real rates begins to boost the USD and triggers outflows from riskier EMs. Many emerging economies are already dealing with inflationary and budgetary pressures caused by rising food and energy prices on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war.<\/p>\n

But is it an indicator of headwinds peaking?<\/strong> A small number of strategists believe that positive real rates could cause the Fed to dial back the hawkishness in a good move for EMs. \u201cI definitely think U.S. real yields crossing the zero-line is an important milestone on the path towards a peak in the monetary headwinds emerging-market investors are facing in 2022,\u201d said one strategist at Nordea Investment. \u201cPositive real rates would also bring us closer to peak Fed hawkishness, which is the ultimate requirement for risk appetite to stage a meaningful comeback.\u201d<\/p>\n

Surging inflation has pushed many EM policy rates into negative territory:<\/strong> Some 35 of the 42 nations tracked by Bloomberg currently have negative real policy rates. This includes Egypt, where a 10.5% inflation rate in March<\/a> pushed Egypt\u2019s real rate into negative territory despite the 100-bps rate hike<\/a> last month.<\/p>\n

The good news? The Fed (probably) won\u2019t sanction an even faster tightening cycle next <\/strong>month.<\/strong> Fed officials are yet to give public backing to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard\u2019s suggestion<\/a> that a huge 75-bps hike might be needed to tame inflation when the central bank meets at the beginning of May. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester has come out against the proposal<\/a>, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell hasn\u2019t commented on the matter.<\/p>\n

When the dust starts to settle, Latin America could be the top choice for bond buyers: <\/strong>The fact that some Latin American central banks started monetary tightening long before Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, as well as appreciating regional currencies, suggests that these countries might be the first to hit peak interest rates this cycle. That creates chances in short-term sovereign bonds as yield curves steepen, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. Traders have their eye on Brazilian, Chilean, and Colombian debt in particular.<\/p>\n

But predicting inflation is a loser\u2019s game:<\/strong> Rate hikes won\u2019t peak globally until inflation is brought under control \u2014 and as the aftermath of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated, it\u2019s very difficult to predict the impact of global events on prices. \u201cThe margin of error is way too high to call for peak inflation,\u201d one EM debt-watcher told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

Here in Egypt we could still be in store for another rate hike <\/strong>in addition to the surprise 100 bps increase the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced last month<\/a>. Analysts say the CBE will be watching the Fed\u2019s May meeting and market developments closely for cues. Ratings agency Fitch sees Egypt making a further 300 bps<\/a> in rate rises by FY 2023-2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US real yields turning positive to raise pressure on EMs: The inflation-adjusted 10-year yield on US treasuries turned briefly positive last week, sounding alarm bells among emerging-market money managers, Bloomberg reports. US-based Franklin Templeton said it would cut its positions in high-yield debt, while Fidelity International is betting against EM currencies, as the threat of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":550820,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[82,7106,115,633,349,724,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-550819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-bonds","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterprisepm","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"56e8c62f-2b88-405e-bce6-55bb00adccea","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/537.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[550809],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEM debt is under pressure \u2014 but after headwinds subside, Latin America could be in for a windfall - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/em-debt-is-under-pressure-but-after-headwinds-subside-latin-america-could-be-in-for-a-windfall\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EM debt is under pressure \u2014 but after headwinds subside, Latin America could be in for a windfall\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US real yields turning positive to raise pressure on EMs: The inflation-adjusted 10-year yield on US treasuries turned briefly positive last week, sounding alarm bells among emerging-market money managers, Bloomberg reports. 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needs to repay a decade of USD-denominated debt are on track to \u201csoar\u201d next year, Caroline Grady writes for the Financial Times. EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573397,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/04\/em-portfolio-inflows-fall-m-o-m-in-july-but-equity-debt-flows-are-continuing-to-recover-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":550819,"position":2},"title":"EM portfolio inflows fall m-o-m in July, but equity + debt flows are continuing to recover -IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Net emerging markets portfolio inflows nearly halved in July to USD 15.1 bn from USD 29.2 bn in June, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF) monthly capital flows tracker. The m-o-m decline comes as \u201chard data are still lagging behind\u201d a recovery in investors\u2019 sentiment on the outlook\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/15.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570177,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/","url_meta":{"origin":550819,"position":3},"title":"EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD: Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/249.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":552388,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/31\/are-em-corporates-being-punished-for-being-in-the-wrong-part-of-the-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":550819,"position":4},"title":"Are EM corporates being punished for being in the wrong part of the world?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It has been a tough year for emerging markets, but is it now time to invest in EM corporate debt? Foreign investors have been exiting emerging-market assets in droves in recent months, with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve hiking rates, a strengthening USD, supply chain issues, a war in Europe's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/618.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":580604,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/09\/what-will-impact-emerging-markets-in-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":550819,"position":5},"title":"What will impact emerging markets in 2023?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Last year was a tough one for emerging markets. What will 2023 bring? Emerging markets had a rough ride last year. Aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve combined with inflation and commodities shocks to bring currency woes, losses in stocks and bonds, and even debt defaults for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/620.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550819","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=550819"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550819\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/550809"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/550820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=550819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=550819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=550819"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=550819"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=550819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}