{"id":550659,"date":"2022-04-13T13:12:40","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T13:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/13\/us-sanctions-on-russia-could-cause-blowback-for-the-usd\/"},"modified":"2022-04-13T13:12:40","modified_gmt":"2022-04-13T13:12:40","slug":"us-sanctions-on-russia-could-cause-blowback-for-the-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/13\/us-sanctions-on-russia-could-cause-blowback-for-the-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"US sanctions on Russia could cause blowback for the USD"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Are US sanctions on Russia harming USD supremacy?<\/strong> Ever since the US announced its unprecedented package of financial sanctions on Russia, a growing contingent of analysts and economists have warned that the measures risk undermining the greenback\u2019s reserve currency status and balkanizing the global monetary order. The US Treasury\u2019s \u2018shock and awe\u2019 move to sanction the central bank, something never attempted on an economy of Russia\u2019s size, could have unintended consequences by causing other countries to rethink their relationship with the USD, they say.<\/p>\n

The IMF is voicing concern:<\/strong> The IMF\u2019s deputy managing director, Gita Gopinath, said just that last month. \u201cThe USD would remain the major global currency even in that landscape but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible,\u201d she told the Financial Times<\/a> in an interview last month. \u201cWe are already seeing that with some countries renegotiating the currency in which they get paid for trade.\u201d<\/p>\n

The USD is the world\u2019s reserve currency.<\/strong> Central banks across the world store most of their reserves in USD or in USD-denominated assets such as treasuries, and the bulk of international trade and financial transactions are performed using the greenback. How much of global reserves are in USD? The most recent data from the IMF shows that the currency makes up around 55% of the world\u2019s foreign exchange reserves. In comparison, the next most-popular FX currency is the EUR, which accounts for less than 20% of the global total.<\/p>\n

Crucially, foreign currency reserves are hardly ever held physically by the central bank<\/strong>, making them vulnerable to appropriation by other countries. Most of the world\u2019s reserves are held as securities, which are stored in central securities depositories (CSDs) either in the host country or with a major international CSD such as Euroclear. For more information on this: Read monetary economist and payments specialist Ousmane Mandeng\u2019s piece in the FT<\/a> where he explains the financial plumbing of international reserves.<\/p>\n

The USD as a weapon:<\/strong> In recent years, the US has used its control of the global financial system as a coercive foreign policy tool with increasing regularity. Iran<\/a>, Venezuela<\/a> and most controversially<\/a> Afghanistan<\/a> have all had their reserves frozen and been excommunicated from the USD system.<\/p>\n

Moscow thought it had itself covered:<\/strong> Since dragging itself out of its financial crisis in 1998, Russia has been busy accumulating a vast stockpile of reserves which is now worth more than USD 630 bn. This, policymakers thought, would hand the central bank more than enough firepower to support the RUB should the US intensify its trade and financial sanctions. It had also worked to reduce its holdings of USD assets to less than 7% of its total reserves in a bid to reduce its exposure to the greenback.<\/p>\n

So much for that warchest\u2026:<\/b> Prior to the conflict, few genuinely expected the US to go straight for the Russian central bank and most held up Russia\u2019s huge reserve stockpile as a powerful\u00a0 buffer against future financial crises. But just four days into the invasion, Washington went for the jugular. Together with the EU<\/a> and Japan<\/a> \u2014 which together hold more than 40% of Russia\u2019s reserves \u2060\u2014 the US confiscated some USD 300 bn<\/a> from the Russian central bank. The measure blindsided the Russians, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitting last month<\/a> that no-one in Moscow had predicted that the G7 would go for its reserves.<\/p>\n

Other countries are watching:<\/strong> For countries holding a substantial portion of their reserves in USD assets, the sanctions on Russia have been instructive on how Washington is able to leverage the dominance of the greenback to mount financial warfare against hostile countries. Importantly, most countries outside of the G7 are not on board with sanctions. Major emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico have refused to embargo Russia and are eager to continue business.<\/p>\n

A \u201cmajor break\u201d in the system:<\/strong> For these countries, the sanctions are a potential watershed moment that could push them to reduce their exposure to the USD and transition to new bilateral and regional financial relationships. Economist Kenneth Rogoff called the decision \u201cabsolutely historic.\u201d It will \u201cprobably accelerate moves in the international financial system\u201d to compete with the USD, he said<\/a> earlier this month. Shahin Vallee, economist at Soros Fund Management, called it<\/a> a \u201cmajor break\u201d in the international financial system. \u201cCentral bank reserves are now worth as much as the dominant reserve currencies issuing them want. This could have profound long-term consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s not all:<\/strong> There are also question marks over the integrity of international payment mechanisms after the US and Europe disconnected a large part of Russia\u2019s financial system from Swift<\/a>, the interbank messaging service used to facilitate most of the world\u2019s cross-border payments. This makes it harder for many banks to process USD- and EUR-denominated payments, and though carve-outs do currently exist \u2014 notably for institutions processing oil and gas transactions \u2014 most Russian businesses now need to rely on channels such as encrypted telegrams and emails to continue trading overseas. It was a big move and one that will \u201clikely fundamentally change the geopolitics of cross-border payments,\u201d writes<\/a> Robert Greene, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.<\/p>\n

Russia + India are moving to drop the USD:<\/strong> Russia and India are on the way to dropping the USD in bilateral trade and replace it with RUB and INR<\/a>, a move that would allow the two countries to skirt sanctions and maintain their trading relationship. Indian exporters are reportedly waiting on USD 500 mn of payments that Russian banks have been unable to process, forcing Moscow and New Delhi to explore new payment mechanisms including Russia\u2019s SPFS messaging system<\/a>.<\/p>\n

And China is accelerating its move to build an alternative financial system:<\/strong> China has been building its RMB-based answer to Swift \u2014 the Cross-Border Interbank Payments System (CIPS) \u2014 for a number of years, and though it remains small by comparison, the recent moves against Russia seem to have stirred policymakers into action. China\u2019s central bank recently announced that it would limit the country\u2019s use of Swift and ramp up the usage of the RMB in cross-border trade. The head of the country\u2019s central bank has said it will provide support to countries in Southeast Asia<\/a> to reduce the use of the USD. Former IMF economist Eswar Prasad called the CIPS a \u201cpotential game changer.\u201d \u201cChina is setting up an infrastructure for payments and payment messaging that could one day provide an alternative to the western-dominated international financial system and in particular Swift,\u201d he told the FT<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But how close are we really to a displacement of the USD?<\/strong> China still faces challenges.<\/strong> Chinese policymakers remain reluctant to fully liberalize the currency and allow it to be fully-convertible. Having countries store reserves in RMB would be a hard sell if they cannot freely convert it into any other currency. And the fact remains that the RMB is still not used that often in international trade. \u201cWe have very accommodative monetary policy, we are very open with our markets, things are easily convertible and we are safe as an economy. Until those things change, the rest of it ain\u2019t changing,\u201d Brian O\u2019Toole, a sanctions expert at the Atlantic Council and former US treasury official told the FT. \u201cWhere else are you going to go? There\u2019s no place else that has anything approaching the level of liquidity and access that the US market has. It doesn\u2019t exist anywhere.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Are US sanctions on Russia harming USD supremacy? Ever since the US announced its unprecedented package of financial sanctions on Russia, a growing contingent of analysts and economists have warned that the measures risk undermining the greenback\u2019s reserve currency status and balkanizing the global monetary order. The US Treasury\u2019s \u2018shock and awe\u2019 move to sanction […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":550660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[633,272,2745,2744,1510,132],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-550659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-enterprisepm","tag-imf","tag-russian-ukraine-war","tag-swift","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8fec1927-2b23-444e-bb16-afbefa9ce511","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/480.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[550650],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nUS sanctions on Russia could cause blowback for the USD - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/13\/us-sanctions-on-russia-could-cause-blowback-for-the-usd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US sanctions on Russia could cause blowback for the USD\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Are US sanctions on Russia harming USD supremacy? 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We know, we\u2019ve talked about this possibility what seems like two dozen times before \u2014 and the world has speculated that the USD would exit stage right for at least forty years. But\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/470.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597996,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/12\/could-sharp-power-lending-reduce-the-need-for-further-imf-bailouts\/","url_meta":{"origin":550659,"position":1},"title":"Could \u2018sharp power lending\u2019 reduce the need for further IMF bailouts?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"NEW BUZZWORD: Could \u2018sharp power lending\u2019 reduce the need for further IMF bailouts? Sharp power lending is the latest buzzword for emerging powers handing out large bilateral loans to countries facing economic crises \u2014 and could be an alternative to traditional multilateral lending, sovereign debt analyst Timothy Ash writes in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/2788.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593429,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/27\/emerging-markets-fx-funding-needs-to-repay-usd-denominated-debt-to-soar-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":550659,"position":2},"title":"Emerging markets\u2019 FX funding needs to repay USD-denominated debt to \u201csoar\u201d next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets\u2019 FX funding needs to repay a decade of USD-denominated debt are on track to \u201csoar\u201d next year, Caroline Grady writes for the Financial Times. EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544455,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/03\/russias-war-continues-to-reverberate-through-commodities-equities\/","url_meta":{"origin":550659,"position":3},"title":"Russia\u2019s war continues to reverberate through commodities + equities","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodities spiral as traders avoid Russian exports: The Russia-Ukraine war has pushed global commodities markets to the edge, fueling shortages and quickening already-high global inflation, according to Bloomberg. Wheat prices yesterday rose to their highest since 2008, while oil passed USD 112 per barrel, and European natural gas rose as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/28\/em-state-owned-enterprises-rising-debt-is-a-growing-concern-for-govt-finances-says-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":550659,"position":4},"title":"EM state-owned enterprises\u2019 rising debt is a \u201cgrowing concern\u201d for gov\u2019t finances, says IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging market state-owned enterprises\u2019 rising debt burdens are a \u201cgrowing concern\u201d for government finances, as they currently account for \u201ca significant portion\u201d of all EM debt securities, the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability report (pdf). EM state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have capitalized on \u201ceasy global financial conditions\u201d over the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1571.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550798,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/27\/the-2022-imf-world-bank-spring-meetings-have-ended-here-are-the-key-takeaways\/","url_meta":{"origin":550659,"position":5},"title":"The 2022 IMF + World Bank Spring Meetings have ended: Here are the key takeaways","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"RECAP \u2014 The IMF \/ World Bank Spring: The war in Ukraine and ensuring food security in developing countries stole most of the attention last week as global financial chiefs descended upon Washington, DC for the IMF \/ World Bank\u2019s annual Spring Meetings. The general outlook this year was grim\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/528.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=550659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550659\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/550650"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/550660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=550659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=550659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=550659"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=550659"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=550659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}