{"id":550583,"date":"2022-04-07T13:23:15","date_gmt":"2022-04-07T13:23:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/07\/unctad-trims-global-economic-growth-to-2-6-in-2022\/"},"modified":"2022-04-07T13:23:15","modified_gmt":"2022-04-07T13:23:15","slug":"unctad-trims-global-economic-growth-to-2-6-in-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/07\/unctad-trims-global-economic-growth-to-2-6-in-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"UNCTAD trims global economic growth to 2.6% in 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> UNCTAD trims global economic growth to 2.6% in 2022:<\/strong> The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revised downward its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.6%, down from 3.6%, due to the war in Ukraine and the changes countries are making to their macroeconomic policies as a result, according to its updated report (pdf)<\/a>. Developed countries are expected to \u201creinforce\u201d monetary tightening in light of the war, with significant slowdowns in growth expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n

Developing countries to bear the brunt of the damage:<\/strong> Developing countries face the threat of a \u201ccombination of weakening global demand, insufficient policy coordination at the international level and elevated debt levels from the pandemic\u201d that could push them into a \u201cdownward spiral of insolvency, recession and arrested development,\u201d UNCTAD wrote.<\/p>\n

External debt has been exploding over the past decade:<\/strong> External debt in developing countries almost doubled from USD 6.5 tn to USD 11.7 tn between 2011 and 2020 which accounts for a rise from 41 to 69.5 percent of GDP. These countries are projected to require USD 310 bn to meet external public debt service requirements in 2022 but their ability to service their debt \u201cdeteriorated during the first year of the pandemic,\u201d the report said. The external debt-to-export ratio increased in 121 out of 127 developing countries between 2019 and 2020, while 51 countries stood above 250% in 2020.<\/p>\n

Egypt name-checked as potentially exposed to growth slowdown: <\/strong>Countries like Egypt, Pakistan, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, and Angola that face \u201clarge rollover pressures and a large debt service to export ratio\u201d could face a downward pressure on their growth rates, UNCTAD says. The government had been planning to bring down our debt service bill<\/a>to 30% of total state expenditure next fiscal year, compared to 31.5% penciled in for FY2021-2022. Our debt-to-GDP ratio was also set to fall below 90%<\/a> in FY2022-2023.<\/p>\n

Could the government revise our debt targets? <\/strong>With revisions made to the budget<\/a>, including trimmed GDP growth and a narrowed primary surplus, the government could announce changes to its debt targets on the back of the implications of war.<\/p>\n

The policy response is no easy feat, with limited maneuverability:<\/strong> Balance of payments constraints and macroeconomic tightening in richer countries are making policy responses even more difficult to maneuver. While \u201cdeepening financial integration widens the socio-economic scope of the impact from the dynamics of the global financial cycle,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n

Developing countries are banking on interest rate hikes<\/strong> to facilitate higher financial returns than in richer economies. \u201cPolicy makers in developing economies will be placed under pressure to tighten domestic policy in an attempt to prevent capital outflow,\u201d the report says. That\u2019s the case in Egypt, where the Central Bank of Egypt enacted a surprise 100 bps interest rate hike<\/a> last month to contain inflation. State-owned Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt followed up by offering high-yielding 18% certificates of deposit, which have attracted some EGP 423 bn<\/a> of savings from Egyptians as of Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Interest rate hikes in richer countries affect monetary policy elsewhere: <\/strong>As rich countries raise interest rates to combat inflation,\u201d (read: The Fed\u2019s expected 250 bps-worth of hikes<\/a> this year) people in the developing world will be forced to take on a disproportionate share of the adjustment to the post-pandemic global economy,\u201d the report says. What developing countries need is \u201ca financial system that enables developing countries to invest for the long term, to introduce the changes needed to mitigate the enormous costs of climate change,\u201d according to the report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UNCTAD trims global economic growth to 2.6% in 2022: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revised downward its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.6%, down from 3.6%, due to the war in Ukraine and the changes countries are making to their macroeconomic policies as a result, according to its […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":550584,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250],"tags":[7106,633,2733,643,1095,2507],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-550583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro-picture","tag-debt","tag-enterprisepm","tag-global-gdp","tag-macro-picture","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-unctad","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fab11cc7-2045-47dc-a707-a43ed3e051a0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/453.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[550573],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nUNCTAD trims global economic growth to 2.6% in 2022 - 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Egypt\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/222.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570058,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/17\/covid-19-could-take-a-usd-2-tn-swing-at-global-income-unctad\/","url_meta":{"origin":550583,"position":1},"title":"Covid-19 could take a USD 2 tn swing at global income -UNCTAD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"UNCTAD says covid-19 could take a USD 2 tn swing at global income: Global income could fall as much as USD 2 tn from initial 2020 projections because of the covid-19 outbreak, according to a preliminary downside scenario from UNCTAD. USD 220 bn of the total will be incurred by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/200.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554375,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/02\/global-inflation-could-continue-rising-thanks-to-omicron-and-the-never-ending-supply-chain-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":550583,"position":2},"title":"Global inflation could continue rising thanks to Omicron and the never-ending supply chain crisis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"A convergence of the new Omicron strain + the shipping crisis could push up global inflation and undermine the post-covid recovery in a big way. That\u2019s the headline message from two recent reports from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/571.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575840,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/global-fdi-plunges-49-on-covid-lockdowns\/","url_meta":{"origin":550583,"position":3},"title":"Global FDI plunges 49% on covid lockdowns","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Global foreign direct investment fell 49% y-o-y in 1H2020 as lockdowns across the world and recession fears caused a slowdown in cross-border investment, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said in its latest investment monitor (pdf). All forms of FDI felt the impact of the coronavirus,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/297.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577317,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/17\/gafi-picks-up-a-unctad-award-for-minya-sugar-project-us-chamber-of-commerce-and-amcham-support-the-global-methane-pledge\/","url_meta":{"origin":550583,"position":4},"title":"GAFI picks up a UNCTAD award for Minya sugar project + US Chamber of Commerce and AmCham support the Global Methane Pledge","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"GAFI picks up a UNCTAD award for Minya sugar project","rel":"","context":"In "Kudos"","block_context":{"text":"Kudos","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/newsmakers\/kudos\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/logo\/c8403d8c-c8c6-49c4-85a9-e15ae0006f03.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":625184,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/30\/theres-something-rotten-in-the-state-of-global-trade-says-unctad\/","url_meta":{"origin":550583,"position":5},"title":"There\u2019s something rotten in the state of global trade, says UNCTAD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 September 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s something rotten in the state of global trade, says UNCTAD: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has issued a grim warning on what the state of global trade, corporate power and debt mean for emerging market economies.The current system of multilateral and hyperglobalized trade is making\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=550583"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550583\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/550573"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/550584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=550583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=550583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=550583"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=550583"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=550583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}