{"id":550125,"date":"2022-10-16T03:53:04","date_gmt":"2022-10-16T03:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/16\/this-morning-no-imf-loan-agreement-out-of-dc-is-it-raining-yet\/"},"modified":"2022-10-16T03:53:04","modified_gmt":"2022-10-16T03:53:04","slug":"this-morning-no-imf-loan-agreement-out-of-dc-is-it-raining-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/16\/this-morning-no-imf-loan-agreement-out-of-dc-is-it-raining-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: No IMF loan agreement out of DC + Is it raining yet?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends.<\/strong> We hope you had a wonderful weekend.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY here at home<\/strong> is the Neverending Story that is the talks between <\/strong>Egypt and the IMF on a new assistance package. <\/strong>Today marks the last day of the IMF \/ World Bank meetings \u2014 and officials yesterday dashed our hopes of any big breakthrough.<\/p>\n

A meeting between IMF and Egyptian officials yesterday ended with the two sides only <\/strong>saying they expect to <\/strong>reach an agreement on the long-awaited package \u201cvery soon.\u201d <\/strong>We have the full rundown in this morning\u2019s newswell, below.<\/p>\n

SIGN OF THE TIMES #1- CIB the latest to raise USD CD rates: <\/strong>The country\u2019s largest private lender raised interest rates on three-year USD certificates of deposit to 5.25%, according to Al Mal<\/a>. We saw similar moves<\/a> last week by state-owned lenders Banque du Caire, National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr. A number of banks are raising rates to pull in USD liquidity after recently imposing caps on the use of foreign exchange abroad and online<\/a>.<\/p>\n

SIGN OF THE TIMES #2- \u201c<\/strong>Diesel hits chaos mode in fresh blow for global economy<\/a><\/strong>,\u201d <\/strong>blares the headline at the top of Bloomberg\u2019s homepage this morning. Europe isn\u2019t ready for a ban on Russian imports that\u2019s less than four months away. French refineries are on strike. And the US has the lowest seasonal inventories since 1982. You may now thank Ahmed Heikal for the Egyptian Refining Company<\/strong>, which slashed our diesel imports by as much as 30-40%.<\/p>\n

DATA POINT- Egypt registered a primary surplus of 0.11% of GDP in the first <\/strong>quarter of the 2022-2023 fiscal year<\/strong>, according to a Finance Ministry statement<\/a>. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait shared the figure in separate meetings with staff at ratings agencies Moody\u2019s and S&P Global, according to a statement. Maait also said efforts to digitize the tax system<\/a> had led to a 20% y-o-y increase in tax revenues in the July-September period. The Madbouly government is targeting a primary surplus of 1.6%<\/a> for the year. Reuters<\/a> also took note of the news.<\/p>\n

PSA- First rain of the fall? <\/strong>There\u2019s a slim chance (c. 40%) of light rain in parts of Greater Cairo this morning \u2014 and a much better possibility (c. 70%) that Alexandria and other parts of the northern coastline will see showers throughout the day today, according to the national weather service<\/a>. Nighttime in Cairo will hit lows of 21\u00b0C this week, with daytime highs reaching 27-28\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> The House is back in session <\/strong>today<\/strong> through Tuesday.<\/strong> On the agenda:<\/p>\n

Bread reform committee should get House approval:<\/strong> The House could approve as early as today Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy\u2019s proposal to form an ad hoc committee<\/a> to look into possible changes to the country\u2019s massive bread subsidy program.<\/p>\n

The House will also discuss amendments to the Agriculture Law today <\/strong>that would introduce harsher penalties for illegally building on agricultural land. Under the amendments<\/a>, illegally building on agricultural land could cost up to EGP 10 mn and up to five years in prison. The House\u2019s Legislative and Constitutional Affairs Committee approved<\/a> the amendments earlier this month.<\/p>\n

The auto bill that would regulate EV assembly <\/strong>(among other facets of the industry) is up for debate on Monday. \u201cAs it is a priority for the government, the bill could get a final approval in the House next week,\u201d head of the House Industrial Committee Moataz Mahmoud told us last week.<\/p>\n

What auto bill?<\/strong> The bill would set up a new regulatory body to set policies to localize the auto industry, including electric vehicles. Enterprise Climate has a deep dive<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Education Minister Reda Hegazy will answer <\/strong>questions in the House <\/strong>at some point this week, including on a shortage of public schools and teachers, the national curriculum, and a rise in private school tuition fees. Hegazy is also set to be asked about the state of public school buildings after the death of a child in a Giza school when a staircase collapsed made national news.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

\n Get Enterprise<\/b> daily
\n <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD over the weekend has been the slow-motion car crash that <\/strong>continues to unfold in UK markets \/ politics. <\/strong>PM Liz Truss won\u2019t or can\u2019t let go of the steering wheel as the car veers ever further from the road. She has managed to let go of former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, who has been replaced by Jeremy Hunt. Hunt admitted that Truss had made \u201cmistakes\u201d and warned of \u201cdifficult decisions ahead.\u201d Brace for tax hikes, not tax cuts (listen, runtime: 14:29<\/a>).<\/p>\n

On Monday, the markets speak: <\/strong>The GBP fell against the USD and yields rose on Friday after Truss fired Kwarteng and said that parts of her disastrous mini-budget would be rolled back. Monday\u2019s open will indicate whether markets have more trust in Hunt. (Reuters<\/a> | CNBC<\/a> | FT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE #1- China\u2019s Communist party is expected this week to appoint Xi <\/strong>Jinping to an unprecedented third term in office<\/strong>, making him \u201cChina\u2019s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong,\u201d the Western press writes. From the Financial Times<\/a> to the Guardian<\/a>, the New York Times<\/a>, BBC<\/a>, and the Wall Street Journal<\/a>, Xi is everywhere this morning, with headlines including \u201cChina\u2019s everlasting emperor awaits his third term\u201d and \u201cXi Jinping is on the brink of total power.\u201d The party congress kicks off today.<\/strong><\/p>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE #2- Apple is expected to launch new M2-powered iPad Pros \u201cwithin days,\u201d <\/strong>Bloomberg\u2019<\/a>s Mark Gurman reports. Don\u2019t expect a new industrial design, he warns \u2014 and new Macs? Those probably aren\u2019t coming until November, he reports.<\/p>\n

OTHER THINGS worth knowing about this morning: <\/strong><\/p>\n