{"id":550050,"date":"2022-10-12T03:50:02","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T03:50:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/"},"modified":"2022-10-12T03:50:02","modified_gmt":"2022-10-12T03:50:02","slug":"price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or <\/strong>next,\u201d <\/strong>it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a> released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects growth to slow to 2.7% \u2014 0.2 percentage points lower than in its last forecast in July<\/a>. The report was released as IMF and World Bank officials are gathered in Washington DC for their annual meetings this week.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,\u201d<\/strong> IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas writes in the report. The world\u2019s three largest economies \u2014 the US, China, and the EU \u2014 will \u201ccontinue to stall\u201d in 2022 and 2023, he said.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s behind the gloomy outlook? <\/strong>The report\u2019s title, \u201cCountering the Cost-of-Living Crisis,\u201d more or less sums it up. The Fund sees inflation as the biggest risk to global growth. But monetary tightening by central banks to bring prices back in line also poses a threat, leaving many economies caught between a rock and a hard place.<\/p>\n

The rock: major price pressures. <\/strong>The IMF sees global inflation peaking at 8.8% later this year (up from a previously forecasted 6.6%). That breaks down to 7.2% this year in advanced economies (up 0.6 percentage points from July figures), and 9.9% in EMs and developing economies (up 0.8 percentage points). Price pressures should cool to 6.5% in 2023 and 4.1% the following year, according to the report.<\/p>\n

The hard place: risky policy \u201cmiscalibration.\u201d <\/strong>The Fund says policymakers run the risk of \u201cmonetary, fiscal, or financial policy miscalibration\u201d as they work to restore price stability. Central banks need to engineer a \u201csoft landing,\u201d raising rates enough to bring inflation under control, but not so much that they trigger a harsh recession. For governments, it\u2019s key that fiscal policy works in line with monetary policy and doesn\u2019t trigger panic in the financial markets or aggravate inflationary pressures, Gourinchas told Bloomberg TV,<\/a> referencing the recent bond market chaos<\/a> unleashed by UK PM Liz Truss\u2019 mini-budget.<\/p>\n

And there\u2019s further downside risk<\/strong>:<\/strong> \u201cWe estimate that there is about a one in four probability that global growth next year could fall below the historically low level of 2%,\u201d Gourinchas wrote<\/a> yesterday. Downside risks include policy \u201cmiscalibrations\u201d by major economies, more turmoil in financial markets on a strengthening USD, persistent inflationary pressures, and further escalation of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

EMs vulnerable on debt: <\/strong>The Fund notes that emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to debt distress as record debt carried over from the pandemic is compounded by repercussions of the war in Ukraine. EMs and developing economies with large external financing needs and USD-denominated debt may struggle to keep up with repayments amid energy and food price shocks, capital outflows, and a strengthening USD, the Fund said.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow is the time for emerging market policymakers to batten down the hatches,\u201d<\/strong> the report says, suggesting those who haven\u2019t already now reach out to the IMF for emergency financing support to boost liquidity. The Fund also reiterated its call to G20 nations to engage in serious talks on debt restructuring for their developing counterparts to head off a potential wave of EM defaults.<\/p>\n

THE EGYPT \/ REGIONAL OUTLOOK-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The global turmoil is catching up with us: <\/strong>The IMF revised its FY 2022-2023 growth forecast for Egypt down a full 1.5 percentage points to 4.4%, having in July maintained its 5.9% forecast for the nation\u2019s growth while downgrading the global outlook.<\/p>\n

Middle East + Central Asia continue to defy the downturn: <\/strong>The IMF revised upwards slightly from July its growth outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, to 5.0% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023, as rising oil prices bring benefits to the region\u2019s oil exporters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or next,\u201d it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects growth to slow to 2.7% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":550051,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-550050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"46c9c082-32b8-4cee-88a1-fe137c62814f","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[550046],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nPrice pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or next,\u201d it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects growth to slow to 2.7% […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-12T03:50:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-12T03:50:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/\"},\"wordCount\":631,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"economy\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"IMF\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/\",\"name\":\"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF - 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In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590804,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":550050,"position":1},"title":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572457,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/25\/imf-forecasts-deeper-recession-slower-recovery-as-virus-fears-linger\/","url_meta":{"origin":550050,"position":2},"title":"IMF forecasts deeper recession, slower recovery as virus fears linger","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"YOUR DAILY DOSE OF GLOOM- IMF forecasts deeper global recession, slower recovery as virus fears linger: The global economy will suffer a deeper recession than previously expected as the pandemic continues to intensify in some parts of the world, and businesses and consumers continue to reel from the effects of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/272.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575410,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/14\/imf-warns-of-long-protracted-recovery-as-it-eases-global-recession-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":550050,"position":3},"title":"IMF warns of long, protracted recovery as it eases global recession forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF warns of long, slow recovery as it eases global recession forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees the world\u2019s GDP contracting at a 4.4% pace \u2014 an improvement from the 4.9% it projected in its June outlook \u2014 after economies coming out of lockdown showed improved trade, retail\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/143.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570803,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/15\/the-coronavirus-will-trigger-the-worst-global-recession-since-the-great-depression-in-mena-only-egypts-economy-will-grow-this-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":550050,"position":4},"title":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression; in MENA, only Egypt\u2019s economy will grow this year \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression, the IMF predicts: The world is facing its greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression as output plummets at a record pace in response to the \u201cGreat Lockdown\u201d put in place to contain covid-19, the IMF warned yesterday.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579278,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/01\/imf-trims-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":550050,"position":5},"title":"IMF trims Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has cut its economic growth forecast for Egypt, saying it sees GDP growing 4.0% this year, a 0.4 percentage point trim from its previous forecast in October, according to its updated World Economic Outlook released yesterday (here and here, pdf). 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