{"id":549907,"date":"2022-10-05T04:05:16","date_gmt":"2022-10-05T04:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/05\/this-morning-just-a-few-short-hours-until-the-long-weekend\/"},"modified":"2022-10-05T04:05:16","modified_gmt":"2022-10-05T04:05:16","slug":"this-morning-just-a-few-short-hours-until-the-long-weekend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/05\/this-morning-just-a-few-short-hours-until-the-long-weekend\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: Just a few short hours until the long weekend"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, wonderful people. <\/strong>We\u2019ve got a steady stream of news this morning to see us into the long weekend.<\/p>\n

Say \u201clong weekend\u201d once more \u2014 you won\u2019t be hearing that phrase again until 2023. <\/strong>Banks and the stock market will be off tomorrow in observance of Armed Forces Day \u2014 the final long weekend of the year \u2014 according to the Central Bank of Egypt and the EGX<\/a>. Cabinet had already announced<\/a> the holiday for both public and private sector workers. For those who usually work Saturdays, this coming Saturday, 8 October, is also an official holiday to mark the Prophet Muhammad\u2019s birthday.<\/p>\n

Your next day off will be 1 January<\/strong> (falling on a Sunday and traditionally a holiday for banks) and then Coptic Christmas (January 7, which falls on a Saturday in 2023).<\/p>\n

EnterprisePM will be out as usual this afternoon <\/strong>and readers of Enterprise Climate will have their morning read in their inboxes tomorrow. Both our AM and PM editions in Egypt are off tomorrow \u2014 we\u2019ll be back in your inboxes at the usual time on Sunday morning.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME? It\u2019s all about the EGP<\/strong>, and it seems we\u2019re going to have to keep holding our breath a little bit longer to see how it plays out.<\/p>\n

FOR STARTERS- MPs have <\/strong>summoned senior cabinet ministers to discuss the import and FX crisis. <\/strong>The finance, planning, and trade and industry ministers will appear before the House Industry Committee next week to discuss the pileup of goods at ports and the availability of FX, committee head Moataz Mahmoud tells Al Mal<\/a>. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has in recent days urged the government and the central bank to normalize the situation<\/a> by November. The president also said yesterday in a televised address that he\u2019s confident we\u2019ll make it through this bottleneck (we have more on that in Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows, below).<\/p>\n

The news came as the EGP continued its slow slide against the USD yesterday<\/strong>, easing four piasters against the greenback to 19.7084. The EGP has been marking fresh record lows against the US currency in recent days, after it last week breached the record<\/a> 19.5605 low set five years ago on the back of the historic 2016 float.<\/p>\n

The EGP has lost around a quarter of its value this year<\/strong> against the greenback <\/strong>thanks to a toxic mix of domestic economic pressures, the global economic fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, and the strengthening of the USD against just about every major global currency. The central bank went for a snap 15.9% devaluation in March, with the rest of the slide happening in gentle (but steady) increments since then.<\/p>\n

Where will it settle? <\/strong>Enterprise readers see the EGP dropping to 22.12 \u2014 the figure they\u2019re using (on average) for their 2023 budgets, according to our fall reader survey<\/a>. Goldman Sachs sees the EGP settling in the 22-24 band, while BNP Paribas is forecasting the currency to fall to 22-23 by the end of the year. Bloomberg<\/a>, which has been leading the charge for a weaker pound, is now saying that some market watchers are calling for an end to the \u201cdrip, drip, drip\u201d devaluation<\/strong> in favor of a more sudden move. Bloomberg Economics thinks a rate of EGP 24.60 to the greenback would \u201cbring Egypt\u2019s trade deficit to a reasonable level.\u201d<\/p>\n

ENTER THE IMF: <\/strong>Speculation about how much Hassan Abdalla\u2019s central bank will allow the currency to slide is mounting after the IMF signaled that it is working on a \u201csizeable\u201d assistance package<\/strong> for Egypt that could get approval \u201cwithin days or weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

The IMF executive board would have to approve the facility <\/strong>\u2014 and Egypt does not currently appear on the institution\u2019s public calendar<\/a> ahead of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings set to take place next week. So, yeah: We\u2019re going to have to keep holding our collective breath for a little while longer, folks.<\/p>\n

*** <\/strong>
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We want to hear from you:<\/strong> We\u2019re taking the pulse on how the nation feels about Egypt\u2019s nascent EV transition. Take a few minutes to fill out our short survey<\/a>. We\u2019ll be back with the results in a couple of weeks.
***<\/strong><\/p>\n

WHAT\u2019S HAPPENING TODAY-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The world is bracing for a significant oil cut when <\/strong>OPEC+ meets today.<\/strong> The cartel of oil producers is expected to slash daily production by more than 1 mn barrels in a bid to bring up prices, which have sagged after spending March through July comfortably above the USD 100 \/ barrel barrier. Public figures in the US<\/a> are positioning the Saudi led move as playing into Vladimir Putin\u2019s hands. The Financial Times<\/a> notes the move could anger the US.<\/p>\n

The hometown angle: Policymakers here have penciled oil in at about USD 80 <\/strong>per barrel in the 2022-2023 state budget. Brent crude was at about USD 85 last week \u2014 and is hovering just under USD 92 this morning. There\u2019s no word yet on when the Oil Ministry\u2019s petroleum products pricing committee will next meet to set prices at the pumps here in Egypt\/<\/p>\n

Austrian water companies continue investment talks in Egypt:<\/strong> Eight Austrian water companies are in Egypt (pdf)<\/a> to meet with government officials and local business leaders to discuss investment in Egypt\u2019s water, wastewater and desalination projects.<\/p>\n

The Nobel Prize laureate(s) for chemistry will be <\/strong>announced today<\/a><\/strong> at in Stockholm. The Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded yesterday to Alain Aspect, John Clauser and Anton Zeilinger<\/a> for their work on quantum-information science.<\/p>\n

NEXT WEEK-<\/strong><\/p>\n

IMF + WB annual meetings:<\/strong> The IMF and World Bank annual meetings will take place in Washington, DC, on 10-16 October.<\/p>\n

COUNTDOWN TO COP (33 days to go)-<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> The British Embassy in Egypt launched its Climate Finance Accelerator (CFA) program <\/strong>yesterday. <\/strong>The GBP 10.8 mn, four-year technical assistance program will build a pipeline of bankable low-carbon projects and give them access to financing. Piloted in Colombia, Mexico and Peru, the CFA is now looking to expand in Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Africa and Turkey. The program \u2014 which is looking to select 8-12 projects \u2014 is currently accepting proposals for projects seeking USD 1 mn in funding. You can apply here through 16 October<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Who is involved?<\/strong> The program is funded by International Climate Finance (ICF) through the UK government\u2019s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. It is being delivered locally by PricewaterhouseCoopers UK, and implemented by Genesis Analytics and Acumen Consulting Egypt.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s FRA and UK\u2019s FDS Africa also signed an MoU on environmental ins. at the <\/strong>ceremony: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s Financial Regulatory Authority and the UK\u2019s Financial Sector Deepening Africa signed an MoU to explore ins. products for issues pertinent to the environment. More on all of this in the embassy\u2019s press release (pdf)<\/a> on the event, out overnight.<\/p>\n

Enterprise Climate attended yesterday\u2019s launch \u2014 and sat down with UK Ambassador to <\/strong>Egypt Gareth Bayley<\/strong>, where they talked about King Charles II not attending COP27 in person and how newly-appointed UK Prime Minister Liz Truss will tackle climate development financing for Egypt.<\/p>\n

^^ We\u2019ll have the full story in tomorrow\u2019s edition of Enterprise Climate. <\/strong><\/p>\n

African countries will lobby for a shared energy position at COP27<\/strong>, highlighting the importance of fossil fuels for economies and securing access to electricity in the short term, Reuters<\/a>reported. While the use of fossil fuels may be a viable option for some countries, it is not a one-size-fits-all solution, African Union Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy Amani Abouzeid said, according to the newswire.<\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD- Elon Musk may be buying Twitter after all in a bid to head off <\/strong>a costly lawsuit. <\/strong>With just two weeks to go before Musk and Twitter were set to tangle in court, the Tesla and Space X boss sent a letter to Twitter on Monday night saying he was in for the original USD 44 bn transaction \u2014 contingent on debt financing coming into place and the court agreeing to scrap the trial. Musk tweeted yesterday<\/a> that \u201cbuying Twitter is an accelerant to creating X, the everything app.\u201d<\/p>\n

Need to go deeper? <\/strong>Check out coverage in the Financial Times<\/a> | Wall Street Journal<\/a> | Reuters<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>. Or get into the nitty-gritty with Casey Newton\u2019s Platformer<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The story that we\u2019re more interested in: <\/strong>China\u2019s property crash: \u201ca slow-motion financial<\/a>crisis.\u201d<\/a> It\u2019s the first in a series from the FT that says the \u201cimpact of falling house prices is spreading to local government finances and the broader economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE- Bridgewater founder (and <\/strong>Principles<\/a><\/strong> author) Ray Dalio has handed over <\/strong>control of his firm<\/strong>, stepping down as co-head of investment at the asset manager, which has USD 150 bn in assets under management. The move caps a yearslong succession process. The WSJ<\/a> has more.<\/p>\n

AND IT\u2019S OFFICIAL- Apple will bid farewell to its beloved Lightning port. <\/strong>The European Commission has passed a law<\/a> requiring all new electronics sold in the EU to be equipped with a USB-C charging port by 2024 \u2014 including mobile phones, tablets, cameras, games consoles, headphones, and speakers. Laptop-makers have until 2026 to comply with the decision<\/p>\n

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-<\/strong><\/p>\n

UPCOMING NEWS TRIGGERS-<\/strong> Here are some data points and news triggers to be on the lookout for in this month:<\/p>\n