{"id":549729,"date":"2022-09-28T04:08:06","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T04:08:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/28\/an-imf-agreement-could-be-sealed-before-the-end-of-the-month-according-to-goldman\/"},"modified":"2022-09-28T04:08:06","modified_gmt":"2022-09-28T04:08:06","slug":"an-imf-agreement-could-be-sealed-before-the-end-of-the-month-according-to-goldman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/28\/an-imf-agreement-could-be-sealed-before-the-end-of-the-month-according-to-goldman\/","title":{"rendered":"An IMF agreement could be sealed before the end of the month, according to Goldman"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> IMF program by the end of this month? EGP to 24? A mood of \u201ccautious <\/strong>optimism\u201d?<\/strong> These are some of the suggestions in a new report from Goldman Sachs, which recently sent a team to Egypt to talk to figures from the private- and public-sectors \u2014 including the Finance Ministry, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and local banks \u2014 about our current economic challenges. Here\u2019s a snapshot of the report based on extracts that have appeared in the Arabic-language press, including Bloomberg Asharq<\/a>:<\/p>\n

On the IMF:<\/strong> Government officials told Goldman that they hope to finish talks with the IMF for a new program before the end of September<\/strong> \u2014 and that the size of the package could be between USD 3-5 bn<\/strong>. Still, the bank said there remains \u201ca lot of uncertainty\u201d about both the timing and the size of the facility and noted that a program of this size would fall significantly short of plugging the country\u2019s financing gap, which it says is more than USD 15 bn over the next three years. Calibrate your expectations: <\/strong>Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said last week<\/a> that an agreement could still take another month or two to finalize.<\/p>\n

The EGP:<\/strong> Most of the people Goldman spoke with expect the EGP to settle at 22-24 to the USD following a devaluation and linked this to an agreement with the IMF. But there was no consensus on whether this would occur gradually or suddenly. The currency has been on a gradual decline<\/a> since Hassan Abdalla was appointed as CBE governor, weakening almost 2% to hover above record lows against the greenback.<\/p>\n

Enterprise readers see the EGP settling at 22.12 to the greenback<\/strong>, with 22% of respondents to our reader poll saying they\u2019re budgeting for 2023 with the EGP in the 22-23 band and the same number of participants say they figure it the greenback will be changing hands at EGP 23-24 next year.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s roughly in line with what analysts are saying:<\/strong> BNP Paribas forecast before last week\u2019s CBE policy meeting that the currency would fall to 22-23 by the end of the year, while forward markets have priced in<\/a> similar declines.<\/p>\n

On Abdalla:<\/strong> Abdalla\u2019s appointment to head the CBE was \u201cwidely welcomed\u201d by people who spoke to Goldman. They expect the central bank to better coordinate policy with the government under his leadership.<\/p>\n

We think there has been a sea change in relations between previous \u201cantagonists\u201d in public service. <\/strong>The past month has seen significant (but not untoward) policy coordination and regular meetings between Abdalla and his team, on the one hand, and senior cabinet officials including Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait \u2014 ending months of steadily rising tensions during the term of Tarek Amer. Meanwhile, after a decade in which FRA and EGX have been singing from very different pieces of sheet music, we saw earlier this month FRA chief Mohamed Farid and EGX boss Rami El Dokkany not just working together, but appearing at a joint presser.<\/p>\n

The economy: <\/strong>Officials consider the challenges facing the Egyptian economy to be under control and controllable, according to Goldman, which summed up the general mood among public- and private-sector figures as one of \u201ccautious optimism.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IMF program by the end of this month? EGP to 24? A mood of \u201ccautious optimism\u201d? These are some of the suggestions in a new report from Goldman Sachs, which recently sent a team to Egypt to talk to figures from the private- and public-sectors \u2014 including the Finance Ministry, the Central Bank of Egypt […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":549730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,1419,72,260,2276,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-549729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-hassan-abdalla","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7828f0c8-0f23-42d7-a57e-5210fb18233f","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/402.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[549725],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nAn IMF agreement could be sealed before the end of the month, according to Goldman - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/28\/an-imf-agreement-could-be-sealed-before-the-end-of-the-month-according-to-goldman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An IMF agreement could be sealed before the end of the month, according to Goldman\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"IMF program by the end of this month? 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The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) at the end of last week went ahead with a series of measures to restore liquidity to the FX market and revive investor confidence in the economy \u2014 and topped it off by announcing a USD 3 bn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/369.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":614597,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/05\/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanleys-two-cents-on-our-imf-agreement\/","url_meta":{"origin":549729,"position":2},"title":"Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley\u2019s two cents on our IMF agreement","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 February 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Goldman Sachs sees a USD 12 bn loan in our future","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/260.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544866,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/24\/here-we-go-egypt-imf-confirm-talks-over-new-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":549729,"position":3},"title":"Here we go: Egypt, IMF confirm talks over new program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s official: The government has requested support from the IMF to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine on its economy. Statements from the IMF and cabinet yesterday confirmed that the two sides are in talks on a new program, though it remains unclear what kind of assistance the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/336.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":588821,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/18\/cbe-needs-usd-5-bn-for-orderly-currency-float-goldman\/","url_meta":{"origin":549729,"position":4},"title":"CBE needs USD 5 bn for orderly currency float -Goldman","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is unlikely to obtain the amount of FX needed for an orderly deval, says the investment bank","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/825.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544835,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/23\/more-chatter-that-we-are-indeed-going-to-talk-to-the-imf-about-a-new-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":549729,"position":5},"title":"More chatter that we are, indeed, going to talk to the IMF about a new program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"More analysts are speculating that thefiscal stimulus package and monetary policy measures announced Monday will pave the way for a fresh IMF program as the ongoing commodity price shock puts strain on the economy. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, sporadic reports that the government is in discussions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/310.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=549729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549729\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/549725"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/549730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=549729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=549729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=549729"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=549729"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=549729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}