{"id":549589,"date":"2022-09-22T04:00:19","date_gmt":"2022-09-22T04:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/22\/there-are-two-ways-forward-for-egypts-ipo-market-says-efg-hermes-investment-banking-boss\/"},"modified":"2022-09-22T04:00:19","modified_gmt":"2022-09-22T04:00:19","slug":"there-are-two-ways-forward-for-egypts-ipo-market-says-efg-hermes-investment-banking-boss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/22\/there-are-two-ways-forward-for-egypts-ipo-market-says-efg-hermes-investment-banking-boss\/","title":{"rendered":"There are two ways forward for Egypt\u2019s IPO market, says EFG Hermes investment banking boss"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-03\"><\/a> <strong>We have a handful of traditions at the EFG Hermes One on One \u2014 one is eating a lot of <\/strong><strong>red meat. Another is checking in with Mostafa Gad <\/strong>for a glimpse into what his crystal ball says about the IPO and M&A outlooks for Egypt in the year ahead. Gad is co-head of investment banking for Egypt at EFG Hermes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS from our conversation <\/strong>in Dubai yesterday:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Policymakers have three paths open to them as they look to <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/43f14454-61c9-4f0d-8232-ab185c5771c6\">get serious about the asset side<\/a><\/strong><strong> of their balance sheet.<\/strong> Two routes lead to IPOs, the third runs through an M&A pathway.<\/li>\n<li><strong>IPO activity could return in 2Q<\/strong> and 3Q 2023. You can safely expect international institutions that invest in public equities to hold back until they feel they have clarity on the foreign exchange regime.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2022 has been a record year for M&A activity <\/strong>and there\u2019s momentum in the market to see this carry through to 2023.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strategic investors will commit to M&A <\/strong>where public markets folks are holding back from taking a position because strategics can choose to take a longer-term view.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Breathing new life into the stock market just doesn\u2019t help day traders<\/strong> \u2014 it reprices every single corporate asset in Egypt by raising comparables for everyone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>In finance, it\u2019s all about pricing. <\/strong>Every consumer loves a good deal \u2014 on a car, a computer or a new pair of shoes. It\u2019s no different for investors. Whether you want to take a position in a company through an initial public offering (IPO) or buy one outright in the private market, it\u2019s all about valuation \u2014 and valuation decisions are benchmarked and priced on the basis of comparables in public markets. That\u2019s finance-nerd-speak for \u201cthe stock exchange.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>That simple fact of life leaves policymakers with two options if they want to go the IPO route<\/strong>, says Gad.<\/p>\n<p><strong>OPTION #1- Look <\/strong><strong>to the<\/strong><strong> example of Abu Dhabi. <\/strong>Regular readers of Enterprise know that Abu Dhabi has transformed itself from a reasonably sleepy IPO backwater into one of the region\u2019s hottest markets (+18.9% year to date) thanks to a run of successful IPOs. How did it pull off the transformation? \u201cThey accepted that less-than-optimal valuations were the price that needed to be paid to revive the market \u2014 that in the early days, it\u2019s worth going to market with IPOs priced even below fair value because the comps in the market are low. Taking attractively priced transactions to market is how you grow your market cap,\u201d Gad says, pointing to the recent IPOs of companies with \u201cgreat fundamentals, great cashflows, and good dividends,\u201d including Adnoc Drilling, Adnoc Distribution, and Fertiglobe.<\/p>\n<p><strong>That approach is paying dividends (forgive the pun): <\/strong>In June, Borouge, a joint venture between Adnoc and Borealis, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.borealisgroup.com\/news\/borouge-successfully-lists-on-adx-in-abu-dhabis-largest-ever-ipo\">became the ADX\u2019s largest-ever IPO<\/a> and the largest-ever petchems listing in MENA, raising USD 2 bn in an offering that was c.42x oversubscribed. Borouge expects to pay a dividend of nearly USD 1 bn for FY 2022 \u2014 and of at least USD 1.3 bn in 2023, good for a 6.5% dividend yield based on the offer price.<\/p>\n<p><strong>OPTION #2- Get highly liquid state institutions to invest in the stock market<\/strong>, including folks managing assets for the pension and social ins. system. \u201cIt\u2019s not altruism for them to invest in the market \u2014 it\u2019s part of their mandate,\u201d Gad notes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cYou cannot escape the comparables in an IPO,\u201d<\/strong> Gad says. <strong>\u201cThe stock market prices every company in Egypt. Every single Egyptian asset. <\/strong>\u2018Comps\u2019 are the starting point for discussion before you can start arguing for a premium.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Breathing new life into the EGX will \u201creprice everything from banks to petrochemicals<\/strong>, and not just IPOs \u2014 for private market transactions, too,\u201d Gad says. \u201cLook at Saudi Arabia and the multiples there. It is not that these are vastly better companies. It\u2019s that the benchmark for valuation is much higher because they have a vibrant, effective capital market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wait, Enterprise: You said policymakers had three paths. That\u2019s just two. <\/strong>Correct.<\/p>\n<p><strong>OPTION #3- Sell stakes (or entire companies) on the private market.<\/strong> \u201cIf you sell an asset directly in a private sale to a strategic, the seller has more room in which to talk valuations without reference to comparables in the EGX. There is a very good chance you can get fair value for an asset this way,\u201d Gad suggests. The sale of a large stake now to a strategic investor also leaves the door open to an IPO down the road \u2014 a process that would see the state sell another piece of its holdings at a higher valuation when the market is back.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Regional sovereign funds including Abu Dhabi\u2019s ADQ and Saudi Arabia\u2019s PIF will be big players here<\/strong>, as will ambitious outfits such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dpi-llp.com\">DPI<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The best route? <\/strong>It depends on objectives, Gad suggests. Do you want to maximize cash in? Private sales to strategics is the way to go. Do you want to revive the market? Play a role in getting it back into shape? Then accept the fact that you\u2019ll be selling a bit below fair value and follow Abu Dhabi\u2019s example by taking good assets to market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What about the private sector? <\/strong>It generally has the luxury of time on its side when it comes to mulling the timing of an IPO, Gad says: \u201cIt\u2019s easier for them to time transactions because they are not in a rush \u2014 generally speaking, they have cash and they can hold back so they don\u2019t compromise on valuation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>The next big trigger market watchers are waiting for: Clarity in the foreign exchange regime. <\/strong>\u201cWe need to see the FX overhang addressed so international investors \u2014 who think in USD terms \u2014 can price the assets. And we need to see inflation come down a little bit,\u201d Gad notes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>And remember, friends: We\u2019ve been here before. <\/strong>This moment feels, in capital market terms, similar in many ways to where we were in 2016.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So when could we see a return of activity in the IPO market? <\/strong>Possibly in 2Q or 3Q 2023, Gad says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>THE M&A OUTLOOK IS DIFFERENT<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2026at least if you\u2019re talking about strategic investors.<\/strong> \u201cThey can absorb shorter-term turbulence because they look long-term. Look at ADQ and PIF. Look at <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/72ba8ef5-72b9-4980-95a0-3aad6a31d3c7\">AD Ports\u2019 acquisition of Transmar<\/a>,\u201d Gad says. \u201cAD Ports knows that regional lines are often under-served by major operators in times of turbulence and there is a lot of room for a sharp regional operator such as Transmar to connect Egypt to the GCC and East Africa. Look at <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/be49d19c-306f-4ee9-b6ee-b0dba42a18be\">Agthia and Abu Auf<\/a>. Agthia knows it is a great brand and that the transaction will definitely be accretive on a multi-year timeline.\u201d EFG Hermes was exclusive sell-side advisor in the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/99f85003-cd06-4efe-813f-9d09a33d59d6\">Transmar<\/a> and Abu Auf sales.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The M&A outlook is solid for the rest of this year and heading into 2023. <\/strong>\u201cWe have a healthy pipeline as EFG Hermes and we see there is a lot of M&A momentum in the market. 2022 will be a record year for transaction count in Egypt, and though much of that is being driven by PIF and ADQ, there is a lot of activity and a good pipeline outside of them.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have a handful of traditions at the EFG Hermes One on One \u2014 one is eating a lot of red meat. Another is checking in with Mostafa Gad for a glimpse into what his crystal ball says about the IPO and M&#038;A outlooks for Egypt in the year ahead. Gad is co-head of investment [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9136],"tags":[84,1918,72,78,9222],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-549589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enterprise-on-the-road","tag-efg-hermes","tag-enterprise-on-the-road","tag-enterpriseam","tag-ipo-watch","tag-mostafa-gad","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"96431341-1d12-4f5b-ae38-6047887bf679","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[549585],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>There are two ways forward for Egypt\u2019s IPO market, says EFG Hermes investment banking boss - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/22\/there-are-two-ways-forward-for-egypts-ipo-market-says-efg-hermes-investment-banking-boss\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"There are two ways forward for Egypt\u2019s IPO market, says EFG Hermes investment banking boss\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We have a handful of traditions at the EFG Hermes One on One \u2014 one is eating a lot of red meat. 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Gad suggested that one of the M&A transactions is in the Saudi healthcare sector.EFG is working\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593302,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/24\/efg-hermes-to-arrange-egp-1-5-bn-in-debt-agreements-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":549589,"position":2},"title":"EFG Hermes to arrange EGP 1.5 bn in debt agreements next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EFG Hermes plans to arrange debt issuances and agreements worth EGP 1-1.5 bn in 2020, co-head of investment banking Mostafa Gad said, according to Al Mal. The agreements will include debt restructuring, Gad said, without providing further details. 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