{"id":549430,"date":"2022-09-18T04:00:55","date_gmt":"2022-09-18T04:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/18\/cbe-to-hike-rates-in-september-meeting-poll\/"},"modified":"2022-09-18T04:00:55","modified_gmt":"2022-09-18T04:00:55","slug":"cbe-to-hike-rates-in-september-meeting-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/18\/cbe-to-hike-rates-in-september-meeting-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE to hike rates in September meeting -POLL"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to raise interest rates when it meets on <\/strong>Thursday<\/strong> in a bid to tame inflation and support the local currency, according to our regular interest rate poll. Six of seven analysts and economists we surveyed see the Monetary Policy Committee hiking rates for the third time this year, pushing borrowing costs back towards pre-covid levels.<\/p>\n

Where do rates stand:<\/strong> The overnight deposit rate is at 11.25% and the lending rate 12.25%, while the main operation and disc. rates are at 11.75%. The CBE has hiked rates by 300 bps since March in a bid to control rising inflation and bring foreign investors back into the local market, but has left them unchanged in the past two meetings in June and August.<\/p>\n

Weaker EGP + inflationary pressures to force the central bank\u2019s hand:<\/strong> \u201cGiven that the Federal Reserve is also planning a large rate hike in September, the CBE should have little choice but to raise its rate at its next meeting to tame both inflation and external growing risks,\u201d economist Mona Bedeir said. She expects the MPC to raise rates by 100 bps, but tells us that \u201cwe wouldn\u2019t be surprised if it goes higher.\u201d Consumer prices, which grew in August at a rate not seen since November 2018<\/a>, will continue to accelerate for the remainder of the year, she said.<\/p>\n

A pre-emptive move:<\/strong> \u201cIn light of what we\u2019re seeing [in terms of] a gradual devaluation, and officials\u2019 statements on nearing an agreement with the IMF, which we expect would be accompanied by increased inflationary pressures due to a deval at a greater pace, we expect the CBE to raise interest rates by 100-200 bps this week,\u201d Arqaam Capital Associate Director Noaman Khalid told Enterprise. Khalid expects rates to rise by 300 bps and inflation to reach 17-18% by the end of this year.<\/p>\n

A gradual devaluation could keep the central bank from opting for a large hike:<\/strong> The gradual weakening of the EGP instead of a sudden devolution in March makes it more likely the central bank will go for a limited 100-bps increase, instead of an aggressive hike, Amr Elalfy, head of research at Prime Holding, told Enterprise. This doesn\u2019t require a hawkish stance on monetary policy due to its negative impact on debt servicing costs and investments generally, he said. Elalfy sees the central bank raising interest rates by 200 bps by the end of the year, including another 100 bps hike in November.<\/p>\n

Some think it\u2019ll go bigger:<\/strong> Hany Geneina, a long-time market watcher who is now an adjunct professor of business administration at AUC, sees the MPC raising rates by at least 2%, with a return of 18% certificates of deposit (CDs) to curb inflation \u2014 which he expects to jump to 20% towards the end of the year \u2014 and dollarization that will accompany a currency float. Banking expert Hany Aboul Fotouh, a veteran of CI Capital, Arab Banking Corporation, and HSBC, predicts a 100-150-bps hike. He also says the central bank will act to prevent dollarization as the currency weakens.<\/p>\n

Less is more:<\/strong> Capital Economics believes higher inflation data, which would be triggered by a more flexible exchange rate, would see the CBE resuming its tightening cycle with a 50 bps hike. \u201cBeyond that, we expect a further 100 bps of rate increases by the end of this year, which is more tightening than the consensus currently expects,\u201d Capital Economics MENA Economist, James Swanston wrote in a note.<\/p>\n

Not everyone agrees:<\/strong> \u201cDespite the real interest rate remaining in negative territory, we still believe it\u2019s best to keep interest rates unchanged for the coming period,\u201d said Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Esraa Ahmed. \u201cInflation rates are not expected to significantly increase in the coming period, especially that most of the shocks caused by external conditions have already been absorbed.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to raise interest rates when it meets on Thursday in a bid to tame inflation and support the local currency, according to our regular interest rate poll. Six of seven analysts and economists we surveyed see the Monetary Policy Committee hiking rates for the third time this year, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":549431,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,611,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-549430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"298ef0bf-e4ce-4276-a53a-4061d2e7023f","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/247.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[549426],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCBE to hike rates in September meeting -POLL - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/18\/cbe-to-hike-rates-in-september-meeting-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE to hike rates in September meeting -POLL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to raise interest rates when it meets on Thursday in a bid to tame inflation and support the local currency, according to our regular interest rate poll. 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Seven of the nine analysts and economists we surveyed see the Monetary Policy Committee raising rates later this week, with five expecting another huge\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/353.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547345,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/19\/cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-23-june-meeting-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":549430,"position":2},"title":"CBE to leave rates on hold at 23 June meeting -POLL","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is likely to leave interest rates unchanged this week despite rising inflation and accelerating global monetary tightening, according to our regular analyst poll. Five of eight analysts and economists surveyed by Enterprise see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holding rates when it meets on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/EGP-1600px1.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557226,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-september-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":549430,"position":3},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to keep rates on hold in September meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this Thursday as it looks to keep inflation in check, according to a poll conducted by Enterprise. All 10 analysts surveyed said they expected the CBE to maintain its cautious approach for its seventh\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/137.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":549430,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":584039,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/26\/cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-by-at-least-200-bps-this-week-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":549430,"position":5},"title":"CBE to raise interest rates by at least 200 bps this week -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Six of seven analysts see the CBE raising rates by at least 200 bps","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/423.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=549430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549430\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/549426"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/549431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=549430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=549430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=549430"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=549430"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=549430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}