{"id":549270,"date":"2022-09-11T04:00:37","date_gmt":"2022-09-11T04:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/11\/inflation-hits-highest-level-since-november-2018\/"},"modified":"2022-09-11T04:00:37","modified_gmt":"2022-09-11T04:00:37","slug":"inflation-hits-highest-level-since-november-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/11\/inflation-hits-highest-level-since-november-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation hits highest level since November 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-02\"><\/a> <strong>Inflation accelerated in August to reach a near-four-year high<\/strong> on the back of higher food and beverage prices, according to figures from state statistics agency <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/inflation-capmas-August2021.pdf\">Capmas<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/inflation-capmas-August2021.pdf\">(pdf)<\/a> on Thursday. Urban consumer prices grew at a 14.6% y-o-y clip, compared with 13.6% in July, marking the highest recorded figure since November 2018 as the cost of living continued to rise on the back of the war in Ukraine and the weakening EGP.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Food and beverages were once again the culprits:<\/strong> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the biggest component of the basket used to measure inflation \u2014 rose 23.1% y-o-y in August, up from <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/43fc629c-c572-49e8-9404-6b508e9b3248\">22.4%<\/a> the month prior. Transportation costs also rose 17.9% y-o-y, while housing, electricity, water, and fuel costs rose 5.6% y-o-y.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But monthly inflation slowed:<\/strong> Urban inflation rose 0.9% m-o-m in August \u2014 a slower pace from July when it rose 1.3%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Core inflation continued to climb: <\/strong>Core inflation \u2014 which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 climbed 16.7% from a year earlier, up from 15.6% in July, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/CPI-Press-Release-August-2022.pdf\">central bank data (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Some analysts saw this coming:<\/strong> \u201cAugust figures came in close to our expectations of 14.7% y-o-y and 1.0% m-o-m,\u201d CI Capital Senior Economist Sara Saada told Enterprise.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We probably haven\u2019t peaked just ye<\/strong><strong>t:<\/strong> Inflation is \u201clikely to rise a little further\u201d through the end of the year and \u201cto peak at around 17%,\u201d Capital Economics MENA economist James Swanston wrote in a note on Thursday. Swanston expects the EGP to depreciate further in the months ahead, which will fuel inflation, he notes. Saada predicts headline inflation will \u201caccelerate to 18% in 4Q 2022 given the current FX directional trend.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Analysts and economists widely expect the EGP to weaken further<\/strong> <strong>against the USD in the coming weeks and months<\/strong> as the government tries to seal an agreement with the IMF for an emergency loan. The Fund is likely to want to see increased exchange rate flexibility before signing off on a new program. The currency has fallen 22.7% against the greenback since March.<\/p>\n<p><strong>There are signs that inflation could be slowing for producers:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/03f3644f-a7a1-4421-be66-e82e6ea593ce\">PMI data<\/a> out last week showed that input prices faced by the non-oil private sector slowed in August, though raw material and fuel prices continued to rise.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What this means for interest rates:<\/strong> A more flexible EGP could see the central bank resume its tightening cycle when it meets later this month. \u201cIf 2016\u2019s sharp currency movement which filtered through inflation is any indication for the future, we expect to see the central bank either front-loading or slow-pacing a hike in interest rates by 300 bps through the end of the year,\u201d Saada said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Capital Economics expects less<\/strong> by way of interest rate hikes, penciling in a total increase of 150 bps until the end of 2022, which would bring the overnight deposit rate to 12.75%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The CBE has hiked interest rates by 300 bps since March<\/strong> to tame inflation and curb outflows but kept rates <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/57cff412-8599-44b2-a913-0605ff8a9a14\">unchanged<\/a> in its previous two meetings, with the justification that deviations from its target of 7% (\u00b12) are \u201ctransitory.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Also taking note of the story:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-09-08\/egypt-inflation-quickens-to-14-6-fastest-in-almost-four-years\">Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation accelerated in August to reach a near-four-year high on the back of higher food and beverage prices, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas(pdf) on Thursday. Urban consumer prices grew at a 14.6% y-o-y clip, compared with 13.6% in July, marking the highest recorded figure since November 2018 as the cost of living [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":549271,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[317,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-549270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"87690684-aec3-44e4-94d0-51c47f28e208","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/179.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[549264],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation hits highest level since November 2018 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/11\/inflation-hits-highest-level-since-november-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation hits highest level since November 2018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation accelerated in August to reach a near-four-year high on the back of higher food and beverage prices, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas(pdf) on Thursday. 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On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550015,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/11\/egypt-inflation-hits-new-four-year-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":549270,"position":1},"title":"Egypt inflation hits new four-year high","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation accelerated again in September as price shocks continue to linger, according to CAPMAS figures (pdf). Urban consumer price inflation rose to 15.0% y-o-y in September, up from 14.6 % last month, amid an ongoing surge in living costs fuelled by the war in Ukraine and a weaker EGP. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543657,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/13\/annual-urban-inflation-highest-in-almost-2-5-years-in-january\/","url_meta":{"origin":549270,"position":2},"title":"Annual urban inflation highest in almost 2.5 years in January","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in almost two and a half years in January due to rising food prices and an unfavorable base effect, according to figures released Thursday by statistics agency Capmas. Urban inflation rose to 7.3% last month from 5.9%in December, recording its highest rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/156.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578706,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/11\/inflation-hits-new-high-on-weaker-egp\/","url_meta":{"origin":549270,"position":3},"title":"Inflation hits new high on weaker EGP","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a fresh five-year high in December as the impact of successive currency devaluations continued to feed through to the economy. Figures released yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas showed annual urban inflation jumped to 21.3% in December, up from 18.7% the month before, driven by surging food\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/164.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577168,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/13\/inflation-hits-four-year-high-in-october\/","url_meta":{"origin":549270,"position":4},"title":"Inflation hits four-year high in October","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation accelerates again in October: Urban inflation hit its highest level in four years in October on the back of surging food prices. The annual rate of inflation rose to 16.2% during the month from 15.0% in September, according to figures (pdf) released Thursday by state statistics agency Capmas. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/194.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542436,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/11\/inflation-inches-down-in-november-defying-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":549270,"position":5},"title":"Inflation inches down in November, defying expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 December 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation fell to 12.3% in November","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=549270"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549270\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/549264"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/549271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=549270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=549270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=549270"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=549270"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=549270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}