{"id":549063,"date":"2022-09-01T03:30:54","date_gmt":"2022-09-01T03:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/01\/bnp-paribas-thinks-were-getting-usd-3-5-bn-from-the-imf\/"},"modified":"2022-09-01T03:30:54","modified_gmt":"2022-09-01T03:30:54","slug":"bnp-paribas-thinks-were-getting-usd-3-5-bn-from-the-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/01\/bnp-paribas-thinks-were-getting-usd-3-5-bn-from-the-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"BNP Paribas thinks we\u2019re getting USD 3-5 bn from the IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> BNP Paribas has revised down its prediction on the size of the loan we\u2019ll be <\/strong>getting from the IMF to USD 3-5 bn<\/strong> in a research note yesterday. The French bank in July said we would need USD 10 bn or more<\/a> from the multilateral lender to plug our growing funding gap. Predictions of a mega-loan have been tempered<\/a> by officials including Finance Minister Mohamed Maait as well as by Tarek Amer when he was still governor. Maait says we\u2019re in talks for a \u201climited\u201d support package, but has not put a figure on how big that could be in monetary terms.<\/p>\n

Talks with the IMF could conclude by September or October<\/strong>, when the IMF and the World Bank will hold their annual meetings, BNP MENA economist Mohamed Abdelmeguid wrote in the note. Talks with the Washington-based lender are in the \u201cfinal stages,\u201d<\/a> Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said last week, without providing any other details.<\/p>\n

Egypt needs USD 26.2 bn in the current fiscal year to fund debt repayments<\/strong> and cover our current account deficit, \u201cmarginally lower than in previous years, but comes up against the challenging backdrop of depleted central bank reserves and a large net foreign liability for commercial banks,\u201d Abdelmeguid wrote. BNP expects USD 11.2 bn to be covered by foreign direct investment inflows and another USD 6.3 bn from portfolio inflows, leaving a USD 8.7 bn funding gap in FY 2022-2023.<\/p>\n

As was the case in 2016, we\u2019re going to need to line up funding from other sources <\/strong>if we want to unlock an IMF facility. Here\u2019s how BNP Paribas thinks it will play out in the coming weeks before an IMF facility is announced:<\/p>\n