{"id":548959,"date":"2022-08-29T04:00:02","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T04:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/29\/bloomberg-beats-the-drum-hard-on-the-need-for-devaluation\/"},"modified":"2022-08-29T04:00:02","modified_gmt":"2022-08-29T04:00:02","slug":"bloomberg-beats-the-drum-hard-on-the-need-for-devaluation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/29\/bloomberg-beats-the-drum-hard-on-the-need-for-devaluation\/","title":{"rendered":"Bloomberg beats the drum (hard) on the need for devaluation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>\u201c<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-08-28\/default-jitters-stalk-egypt-sending-traders-on-a-wild-ride\">Default jitters stalk Egypt, sending traders on a wild ride<\/a><\/strong><strong>.\u201d That\u2019s the <\/strong><strong>headline this morning atop the latest from Bloomberg, which has been beating the drum (hard) on the need for devaluation<\/strong> for the better part of a month (\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-08-09\/only-way-is-down-for-egyptian-currency-and-question-is-how-much\">only way is down<\/a>,\u201d \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2022-08-15\/egypt-pound-devaluation-debate-saudi-billionaire-s-russia-bet-aramco-s-record?sref=mmeFTDW1\">currency urgency<\/a>,\u201d and \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-08-16\/currency-drama-in-egypt-has-investors-clamoring-for-devaluation\">currency standoff \u2026 deepens<\/a>,\u201d and \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-08-17\/egypt-s-central-bank-governor-amer-resigns-ahram-reports\">shock resignation<\/a>\u201d). The story is out a little more than a day after Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said talks with the IMF on a new facility are <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/749b35e6-ac62-4dbd-8826-5b09c99fdfad\">in the \u201cfinal stages.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>While the piece quotes Oxford Economics Africa on the need to \u201cstave off default,\u201d the <\/strong><strong>tone evens out a bit later: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201c<strong>Egypt is not Sri Lanka \u2014 it has much higher reserve buffers and much better <\/strong><strong>financing options going forward<\/strong>,\u201d said Matthew Vogel, London-based portfolio manager and head of sovereign research at FIM Partners. \u201cEgypt\u2019s problem is manageable with tighter policies and official creditor support.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cThe IMF isn\u2019t a make or break default scenario,\u201d<\/strong> said Todd Schubert, head of fixed-income research at Bank of Singapore. \u201cRather, it would be a confidence builder and be a catalyst for another leg up in pricing to the point that when the EM market does open up, they could conceivably tap the offshore dollar bond markets.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>So should we be concerned? Yup. But is it time to don lifejackets and head for the exits? <\/strong><strong>Nope. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Catch up quick:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s external position is coming under significant pressure this year thanks to a perfect storm of surging commodity prices, rising interest rates, a red-hot greenback and turmoil in the financial markets. Investors have pulled at least USD 20 bn from the country, the current account deficit is widening, and pressure has built on the EGP to the point that policymakers appear to be accepting that more flexibility is in the cards.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How much debt are we talking about, anyway?<\/strong> The country currently has more than USD 5 bn USD- and EUR-denominated securities to pay off in 4Q 2022 and another USD 9 bn maturing in 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The business newswire\u2019s emerging-markets economist, Ziad Daoud, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ziadmdaoud\/status\/1555102865592651777\">has estimated<\/a> that Egypt will currently need around USD 41 bn to cover debt repayments and its current account deficit through to the end of 2023. Foreign reserves are currently at around <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b83f7b83-62a3-4572-8a67-2d8ca7599bd0\">USD 33.1 bn<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The probability of the government failing to repay its debt has jumped to its highest since <\/strong><strong>2013, according to a Bloomberg model<\/strong>. This has caused the spread between Egyptian bonds and US treasuries to rise above 1.2k bps for the first time on record, Bloomberg says, citing JP Morgan data and adding that the cost of insuring against an Egyptian default hit an all-time of 1.5k bps last month, before sliding to 940 bps by the end of last week.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The EGP is down 21.9% since the devaluation in March<\/strong>, slipping further yesterday to 19.24 against the USD and edging closer to a record low. Markets are currently pricing in <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/cc358ff9-00be-4503-bee9-00159279bfb6\">another 22% decline<\/a> over the next year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Absent an IMF facility, FX reserves could stabilize in the near-term:<\/strong> Moody\u2019s Investors Service expects our reserves to stabilize and see a gradual rise on the back of higher non-oil exports and a recovery in foreign inflows. Non-oil exports have already seen a <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/industries\/non-oil-exports-rose-20-y-o-y-1h2022\/\">20% y-o-y increase<\/a> in the first half of the year to USD 19.35 bn. This comes after foreign reserves <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b83f7b83-62a3-4572-8a67-2d8ca7599bd0\">declined by almost 20%<\/a> amid current market conditions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rebuilding reserves and addressing FX flexibility are <\/strong><strong>priorities for the new CBE <\/strong><strong>governor: <\/strong>Speculation is growing that the new CBE governor, Hassan Abdalla, will allow the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7f4ba0d7-8458-48a8-af05-3a4d44fdbda3\">EGP to depreciate further<\/a> against the USD to ease the pressure. Abdalla\u2019s adviser, banking veteran Hisham Ezz Al Arab, told Reuters <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/01172b08-339e-4a91-9a68-7cbd18e210b8\">just hours before he found out he was being named advisor<\/a> that he expected Abdalla to go \u201cmuch faster\u201d currency adjustment than his predecessor Tarek Amer, \u201cnot a sudden devaluation like Tarek did, [rather] a faster pace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Abdalla\u2019s appointment seems to have calmed the local bond market:<\/strong> Yields on Egyptian three-month treasuries fell for the first time yesterday since May, shedding nearly five points to 16.1% in an auction, which some market participants attributed to Abdalla\u2019s appointment. \u201cThe decline, even if it was slight, comes after the meeting of the central bank governor with the heads of banks last week,\u201d one fixed-income trader told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asharqbusiness.com\/article\/41146\">Bloomberg Asharq<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Distress is an EM thing right now:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/005f7bf8-8ca8-471f-ba41-596b2bb2a954\">Almost a fifth<\/a> of all emerging market sovereign debt was trading at distressed levels in July. Investors are studying Egypt\u2019s case as a benchmark and indicator for how the rest of the EM debt scene will turn out, Bloomberg writes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cDefault jitters stalk Egypt, sending traders on a wild ride.\u201d That\u2019s the headline this morning atop the latest from Bloomberg, which has been beating the drum (hard) on the need for devaluation for the better part of a month (\u201conly way is down,\u201d \u201ccurrency urgency,\u201d and \u201ccurrency standoff \u2026 deepens,\u201d and \u201cshock resignation\u201d). The story [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":548960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[82,271,7106,104,1419,115,72,655,2276,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-548959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-bonds","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-hassan-abdalla","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f0cf51a0-1c76-4199-9938-f5fce0c3bc7c","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/424.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[548955],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bloomberg beats the drum (hard) on the need for devaluation - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/29\/bloomberg-beats-the-drum-hard-on-the-need-for-devaluation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bloomberg beats the drum (hard) on the need for devaluation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cDefault jitters stalk Egypt, sending traders on a wild ride.\u201d That\u2019s the headline this morning atop the latest from Bloomberg, which has been beating the drum (hard) on the need for devaluation for the better part of a month (\u201conly way is down,\u201d \u201ccurrency urgency,\u201d and \u201ccurrency standoff \u2026 deepens,\u201d and \u201cshock resignation\u201d). 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