{"id":548774,"date":"2022-08-22T04:00:03","date_gmt":"2022-08-22T04:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/22\/egypt-could-opt-for-soft-egp-devaluation-to-stave-off-inflation-moodys\/"},"modified":"2022-08-22T04:00:03","modified_gmt":"2022-08-22T04:00:03","slug":"egypt-could-opt-for-soft-egp-devaluation-to-stave-off-inflation-moodys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/22\/egypt-could-opt-for-soft-egp-devaluation-to-stave-off-inflation-moodys\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt could opt for soft EGP devaluation to stave off inflation -Moody\u2019s"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Moody\u2019s is the latest to speculate on the fate of the EGP: <\/strong>Egyptian policymakers will likely choose to maintain a close watch on the EGP and allow it to ease gradually against the greenback to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures, Moody\u2019s says in a report picked up by the regional press.<\/p>\n

The EGP is in a tight spot:<\/strong> Speculation has grown in recent weeks that the EGP will need to slide more against the greenback to manage the growing external imbalances and attract foreign capital back to the country. The EGP has already fallen nearly 22% since March, when the central bank devalued the currency<\/a> in response to rising external pressures fuelled by the war in Ukraine, and markets are pricing in another 22% decline<\/a> over the next year as FX pressures grow. The sudden resignation of central bank governor Tarek Amer<\/a> has only added to the feeling of uncertainty in the markets.<\/p>\n

Gradualism could work, on one condition: <\/strong>The continuation of GCC investment will provide crucial support if the government decides against floating the currency, Moody\u2019s says. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have pledged to invest as much as USD 22 bn in Egypt this year, providing a vital source of foreign currency amid a large exit of portfolio flows<\/a>, a rising import bill, and increasing borrowing costs.<\/p>\n

Abdalla\u2019s GCC connections are good for us:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s new acting governor<\/a>, Hassan Abdalla, has good regional ties that could pay off, the rating agency said. His leadership of the Arab African International Bank (AAIB) left him with regional connections that \u201ccomplement\u201d Egypt\u2019s increasing reliance on GCC investments, it wrote.<\/p>\n

But a stable EGP could put our IMF loan at risk:<\/strong> \u201cAn inflexible exchange rate policy could further delay agreement on a new IMF program and restore access to global debt markets,\u201d Moody\u2019s said. Adopting a flexible exchange rate policy is likely one of the IMF\u2019s key demands before it agrees to extend another multi-bn USD loan to Egypt, for which the two sides have been in talks since March<\/a>. The Fund called on the government<\/a> to make \u201cdecisive\u201d fiscal and structural reforms to reduce its exposure to external shocks last month.<\/p>\n

Negotiating terms with the IMF is mission critical:<\/strong> The series of policy tools deployed so far \u2060\u2014 allowing a limited fall in the currency, restricting imports, and attracting Gulf investment \u2060\u2014 have done little to ease the external pressures. A fresh program could provide bns of USD in additional funding and give extra assurances to investors by way of a structural reform program endorsed by the IMF.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- Moody\u2019s is threatening to downgrade Egypt\u2019s credit rating:<\/strong> The rating agency cut its outlook<\/a> on Egypt\u2019s sovereign debt to negative in May and warned that a further slip in foreign reserves could force it to downgrade its rating for the first time since 2013.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Moody\u2019s is the latest to speculate on the fate of the EGP: Egyptian policymakers will likely choose to maintain a close watch on the EGP and allow it to ease gradually against the greenback to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures, Moody\u2019s says in a report picked up by the regional press. The EGP is in a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":548775,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,1419,72,655,2276,272,1324],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-548774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-hassan-abdalla","tag-imf","tag-moodys","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"59267664-f00a-4c2d-9867-7e8314890a5e","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/344.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[548768],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt could opt for soft EGP devaluation to stave off inflation -Moody\u2019s - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/22\/egypt-could-opt-for-soft-egp-devaluation-to-stave-off-inflation-moodys\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt could opt for soft EGP devaluation to stave off inflation -Moody\u2019s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Moody\u2019s is the latest to speculate on the fate of the EGP: Egyptian policymakers will likely choose to maintain a close watch on the EGP and allow it to ease gradually against the greenback to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures, Moody\u2019s says in a report picked up by the regional press. 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The exchange rate hit EGP 17.25 to the USD on Thursday, the strongest showing for the EGP since March 2017.Look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/4\/EGP-USD-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546769,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/29\/moodys-egypt-outlook-turns-negative-on-rising-downside-risks\/","url_meta":{"origin":548774,"position":1},"title":"Moody\u2019s Egypt outlook turns negative on \u201crising downside risks\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s has cut its outlook on Egypt\u2019s credit rating to negative as tightening financing conditions puts pressure on the country\u2019s ability to make external debt repayments, it said on Thursday. The ratings agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B2 rating but warned that a further drop in foreign reserves could force it to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597660,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/what-the-pundits-are-saying-about-our-economy-this-morning-from-expectations-of-devaluation-to-a-possible-moodys-downgrade\/","url_meta":{"origin":548774,"position":2},"title":"What the pundits are saying about our economy this morning, from expectations of devaluation to a possible Moody\u2019s downgrade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s is watching the reform program closely, while Citigroup is turning bearish on our USD bonds","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/545.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586887,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/18\/fitch-downgrades-credit-ratings-of-four-local-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":548774,"position":3},"title":"Fitch downgrades credit ratings of four local banks","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The banks now have a rating of B, down from B+","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1032.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":613763,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/21\/imf-officials-are-in-town-for-loan-discussions-plus-moodys-downgrades-our-credit-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":548774,"position":4},"title":"IMF officials are in town for loan discussions. PLUS: Moody\u2019s downgrades our credit outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 January 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Currency weakness means that even IMF support may be \u201cinsufficient\u201d to stave off Egypt\u2019s growing debt burden, Moody\u2019s says","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/1648.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":660972,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/02\/20\/moodys-affirms-egypts-rating-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":548774,"position":5},"title":"Moody\u2019s affirms Egypt\u2019s rating, outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 February 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The agency sees subsidy reforms and tax reforms helping the government reach a primarily surplus of 3.5% of GDP this fiscal year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/1984.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=548774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548774\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/548768"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/548775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=548774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=548774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=548774"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=548774"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=548774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}