{"id":548705,"date":"2022-08-18T04:00:39","date_gmt":"2022-08-18T04:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/18\/foreign-exchange-policy-will-be-job-1-for-amers-successor-as-calls-for-devaluation-mount\/"},"modified":"2022-08-18T04:00:39","modified_gmt":"2022-08-18T04:00:39","slug":"foreign-exchange-policy-will-be-job-1-for-amers-successor-as-calls-for-devaluation-mount","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/18\/foreign-exchange-policy-will-be-job-1-for-amers-successor-as-calls-for-devaluation-mount\/","title":{"rendered":"Foreign exchange policy will be job #1 for Amer\u2019s successor as calls for devaluation mount"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Tarek <\/strong>Amer left the central bank at a crucial time for the economy:<\/strong> A perfect storm of heightened commodity prices, rising interest rates, and global volatility (including both an economic slowdown and volatility in global capital markets) is putting the Egyptian economy and the EGP in a tight spot. Speculation has grown in recent days that the EGP will need to slide more against the greenback to manage the growing external imbalances and attract foreign capital back to the country.<\/p>\n

The EGP is going to be top of the priority list for whoever takes charge<\/strong>, according to analysts and economists we spoke with yesterday. Hany Geneina, a long-time market watcher who is now an adjunct professor of business administration at AUC, characterized Amer-era monetary policy as one of \u201cexcessive stability,\u201d which sent the wrong messages to investors and the government, which was given an incentive to take on more foreign debt.<\/p>\n

Where is the EGP headed? <\/strong>Prime Securities\u2019 head of Research Amr El Alfy says the new governor should give up tight control of the EGP and instead allow the currency to float against the greenback. Allowing it to go to EGP 20 or more against the USD will have a negative impact on our import bill and will see us import inflation, but will be critical to increasing exports and bringing FX back into the country, he says.<\/p>\n

Watch for an overshoot: <\/strong>If the new governor does allow the currency to slide, it will likely be timed to either a new IMF facility or to additional deposits or investment from our allies in the GCC to give the institution some flexibility to release liquidity into the market in the case of an overshoot, as we saw when the CBE floated the pound in November 2016. Market watchers including local and international investment banks and research houses are all suggesting a fair value for the EGP is something in the 21.00-24.00 range against the USD.<\/p>\n

Policymakers need to gradually liberalize the exchange rate over the next few years<\/strong> until our foreign reserves reach USD 100 bn, after which the rate could be gently pegged again. \u201cThis could take 10 years and be implemented over two phases, with the first seeing a flexible exchange rate until the state can ramp up exports and attract foreign direct investment, both of which will bolster reserves,\u201d Geneina said.<\/p>\n

The IMF is watching: <\/strong>Market watchers believe that is that policymakers have been split on whether to accede to the IMF\u2019s demands<\/a> for a more flexible exchange rate or rely on other policy tools (see: raising capital from the Gulf<\/a>, rationing electricity<\/a> to export more natural gas, and import restrictions<\/a>) to mitigate external pressures. These moves, as well as the c.21% depreciation of the currency in recent months, \u201chave failed to convince investors and it\u2019s increasingly clear that there are tensions among policymakers about the best way forward,\u201d Capital Economics economist Jason Tuvey wrote in a note yesterday. Where the CBE\u2019s new chief stands on exchange-rate policy and how they negotiate policy disagreements with other areas of government will be key.<\/p>\n

Inflation will likely be less of a point of concern for the next CBE governor:<\/strong> El Alfy suggests that inflation will naturally fall back to single digits in 2023, partially thanks to the base effect. Inflation hit a new three-year high in July<\/a>, accelerating to 13.6% on the back of higher food and fuel prices. The suggestion is that any imported inflation will effectively be transient.<\/p>\n

The drumbeat on devaluation is loud: <\/strong>Bloomberg, for example, has run three stories (here<\/a>, here<\/a> + here<\/a>) in the past week on the topic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tarek Amer left the central bank at a crucial time for the economy: A perfect storm of heightened commodity prices, rising interest rates, and global volatility (including both an economic slowdown and volatility in global capital markets) is putting the Egyptian economy and the EGP in a tight spot. Speculation has grown in recent days […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,927],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-548705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-tarek-amer","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7f4ba0d7-8458-48a8-af05-3a4d44fdbda3","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[548699],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nForeign exchange policy will be job #1 for Amer\u2019s successor as calls for devaluation mount - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/18\/foreign-exchange-policy-will-be-job-1-for-amers-successor-as-calls-for-devaluation-mount\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Foreign exchange policy will be job #1 for Amer\u2019s successor as calls for devaluation mount\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tarek Amer left the central bank at a crucial time for the economy: A perfect storm of heightened commodity prices, rising interest rates, and global volatility (including both an economic slowdown and volatility in global capital markets) is putting the Egyptian economy and the EGP in a tight spot. 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You\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/340.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":651962,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/26\/cbe-governor-tarek-amer-downplays-negative-impact-of-egp-float-touches-on-key-indicators-in-televised-interview\/","url_meta":{"origin":548705,"position":1},"title":"CBE Governor Tarek Amer downplays negative impact of EGP float, touches on key indicators in televised interview","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 February 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Central Bank of Egypt Governor Tarek Amer sat down for a televised interview with DMC\u2019s Osama Kamal on Friday in which he downplayed the impact of the float of the EGP and denied the central bank had subtly intervened in the market to support the national currency (watch the full\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548706,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/18\/tarek-amer-assessing-a-complicated-legacy\/","url_meta":{"origin":548705,"position":2},"title":"Tarek Amer: Assessing a complicated legacy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Tarek Amer\u2019s legacy will be in large part shaped by how his successor handles the challenges he has bequeathed them, including FX policy, whether foreign investors regain their appetite for our debt, and how inflation plays out, among others. This much is clear: however divisive he has been in some\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593657,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/07\/egypts-united-bank-sale-moving-forward-amer-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":548705,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s United Bank sale moving forward, Amer says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"M&A WATCH- United Bank sale moving forward: The CBE has appointed one local and one foreign lead advisor on the expected sale of state-owned United Bank, which is \u201cmoving forward,\u201d CBE Governor Tarek Amer told reporters at a presser on Thursday, according to Reuters. 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