{"id":548554,"date":"2022-08-14T04:00:25","date_gmt":"2022-08-14T04:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/14\/cbe-to-raise-rates-this-thursday-to-curb-inflation\/"},"modified":"2022-08-14T04:00:25","modified_gmt":"2022-08-14T04:00:25","slug":"cbe-to-raise-rates-this-thursday-to-curb-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/14\/cbe-to-raise-rates-this-thursday-to-curb-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE to raise rates this Thursday to curb inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is likely to resume its tightening cycle and raise rat<\/strong>es for the third time since March<\/strong> when it meets this Thursday in a bid to tamp down on inflation and support the EGP. Five of seven analysts and economists surveyed by Enterprise expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise rates, with four expecting rates to rise by at least 100 bps.<\/p>\n

Where rates currently stand<\/strong>: The overnight deposit rate currently stands at 11.25%, and the lending rate is 12.25%, while the main operation and disc. rates are at 11.75%. The bank\u2019s monetary policy committee (MPC) has hiked rates by 300 bps<\/a> since March, but chose to leave them unchanged<\/a> during its latest meeting in June, after inflation in May came in below expectations.<\/p>\n

Rising inflation will be the main driver: <\/strong>Inflation reached a fresh three-year high in July<\/a> on the back of higher food and fuel prices, with consumer prices in urban areas rising 13.6% y-o-y. \u201cWe see the MPC hiking rates by 100 bps as a proactive measure to curb inflation, which we expect will continue to rise over the course of the year driven by rising fuel and food prices, as well as the weakening EGP,\u201d CI Capital\u2019s Monsef Morsy said.<\/p>\n

We haven\u2019t reached the peak:<\/strong> \u201cIn our view, inflation has not yet peaked, and real underlying inflationary pressures remain high,\u201d economist Mona Bedair added. Morsy expects inflation to continue rising to reach above 15% before the end of the year, while Capital Economics sees it peaking at 18% by 4Q.<\/p>\n

Most expect a moderate hike to avoid ripple effects in the economy:<\/strong> CI Capital\u2019s Morsy, economist Mona Bedair, and banking expert Hany Aboul Fotouh are penciling in a 100 bps rate hike this week. \u201cThe CBE could choose to raise rates by up to 100 bps at most in order to avoid the negative impacts of heightened rates on economic activity and spending,\u201d Morsy said. Capital Economics is expecting the CBE to raise rates by 50 bps, and has penciled in a further 100 bps of hikes by year-end \u2014 a more hawkish scenario than the consensus expects.<\/p>\n

But some think the CBE will take a more aggressive stance: <\/strong>\u201cWe deem a 200 bps interest rate hike coupled with c. 9% currency devaluation to EGP 21.2\/USD necessary to support the currency and combat dollarization in light of sharp drops in the country\u2019s foreign currency buffers,\u201d Monette Doss, chief economist at HC Securities, told Enterprise.<\/p>\n

What dollarization? <\/strong>External pressures triggered by the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates in developed markets have squeezed foreign-currency liquidity in the banking system and caused the country\u2019s FX reserves to fall 20% since March. Surging commodity prices have added bns of USD to the country\u2019s import bill and volatility in the financial markets has seen USD 20 bn<\/a> in portfolio flows exit the country this year, putting pressure on the EGP which has slipped almost 22% since March. The EGP was trading hands at 19.17 against the greenback last week, edging closer to the record low of 19.54 set in December 2016.<\/p>\n

Could 18% CDs make a comeback? <\/strong>Doss sees a possibility of the state reintroducing high-interest rate certificates of deposits (CDs) through state-owned banks. State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr attracted EGP 750 bn in deposits<\/a> from Egyptian savers when they launched the 18% CDs following the devaluation in March.<\/p>\n

A small minority sees the CBE biding its time:<\/strong> \u201cWe believe it is still early for a resumption in policy rate hikes, as the path of the EGP movement remains uncertain, given the maintained pressures on Egypt\u2019s balance of payments,\u201d Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh wrote in a note, adding that she expects the CBE to hold rates steady. She adds that inflation has been relatively \u201ccontained\u201d within the same range over the past few months, giving the MPC some time to \u201cbetter assess\u201d the inflation path following the depreciation of the EGP. Al Ahly Pharos also sees the CBE keeping rates steady.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- The central bank is currently targeting 7% (\u00b12%) inflation by the end of 2022<\/strong>, but has said it will \u201ctemporarily tolerate\u201d the elevated annual headline inflation rate relative to its target until 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is likely to resume its tightening cycle and raise rates for the third time since March when it meets this Thursday in a bid to tamp down on inflation and support the EGP. Five of seven analysts and economists surveyed by Enterprise expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":548555,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,611,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-548554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5f0f5186-ad0c-49ca-8eb6-bd47cd2f4504","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/230.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[548548],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCBE to raise rates this Thursday to curb inflation - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/14\/cbe-to-raise-rates-this-thursday-to-curb-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE to raise rates this Thursday to curb inflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is likely to resume its tightening cycle and raise rates for the third time since March when it meets this Thursday in a bid to tamp down on inflation and support the EGP. 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Six of seven analysts and economists we surveyed see the Monetary Policy Committee hiking rates for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/247.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":606531,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/18\/cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-september-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":548554,"position":1},"title":"CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in September -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"All seven analysts surveyed by Enterprise see the CBE holding rates on Thursday","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/908.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547345,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/19\/cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-23-june-meeting-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":548554,"position":2},"title":"CBE to leave rates on hold at 23 June meeting -POLL","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is likely to leave interest rates unchanged this week despite rising inflation and accelerating global monetary tightening, according to our regular analyst poll. Five of eight analysts and economists surveyed by Enterprise see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holding rates when it meets on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/EGP-1600px1.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":548554,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":548554,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. 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