{"id":548131,"date":"2022-07-27T04:00:55","date_gmt":"2022-07-27T04:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/27\/imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy\/"},"modified":"2022-07-27T04:00:55","modified_gmt":"2022-07-27T04:00:55","slug":"imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/27\/imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF is \u201cgloomy and uncertain\u201d on global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The IMF has revised downwards its global growth outlook for this year <\/strong>and next<\/strong>, warning that gathering headwinds are pushing the world closer to recession. In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a> released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth weakening to 3.2% from 6.1% last year, as the spillover effects from the war in Ukraine, rising interest rates and continued disruptions caused by the pandemic heap pressure on economic activity around the world.<\/p>\n

It\u2019ll get worse next year:<\/strong> The IMF expects global growth to weaken further in 2023 as tightening financial conditions start to bite. It is now forecasting 2.9% growth against the 3.6% it had predicted in April<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The report is titled \u201cGloomy and More Uncertain\u201d for a reason:<\/strong> \u201cThe outlook has darkened significantly since April,\u201d IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote<\/a> yesterday. \u201cThe world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one.\u201d<\/p>\n

There are \u201coverwhelming\u201d downside risks to the outlook:<\/strong> Europe being entirely cut off from Russian gas supplies, a 30% drop in Russian oil exports, persistently high inflation, and tighter monetary policy could come together to push the eurozone to near-zero growth and escalate debt crises in emerging markets. Under this \u201cplausible\u201d alternative scenario, the IMF expects growth to fall even further to 2.6% this year and 2.0% in 2023.<\/p>\n

No end to inflation in sight: <\/strong>The Fund has revised upwards its forecast for inflation to 6.6% (up 0.9 percentage points from April figures) this year in advanced economies, and 9.5% (up 0.8 percentage points) in EMs and developing economies on the back of rising food and energy prices.<\/p>\n

IMF wants policymakers to prioritize inflation above all else: <\/strong>\u201cInflation at current levels represents a clear risk for current and future macroeconomic stability and bringing it back to central bank targets should be the top priority for policymakers,\u201d Gourinchas said. Tighter monetary conditions will hit the global economy but delaying it \u201cwill only exacerbate the hardships,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

THE EGYPT \/ REGIONAL OUTLOOK-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Egyptian economy isn\u2019t looking too bad:<\/strong> The IMF left Egypt\u2019s FY 2022-2023 growth forecast unchanged at 5.9% but cut our 2023 outlook to 4.8%. The IMF has twice upgraded its outlook for the Egyptian economy this year, despite surging commodity prices and rising interest rates knocking business confidence and squeezing public finances.<\/p>\n

\u201cEgypt has been hit by the impacts of the war in Ukraine,\u201d <\/strong>particularly due to our reliance on Russia and Ukraine for about 80% of its grain imports and for a substantial portion of our tourism revenues, Jihad Azour, the multilateral lender\u2019s head of Middle East and Central Asia, told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 14:12<\/a>). This has reflected on food prices, tourism revenues, and portfolio flows, he added.<\/p>\n

Countries in the MENA, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa regions bucked the trend: <\/strong>The outlook for countries in these regions remains \u201con average unchanged or positive,\u201d the IMF said, as the effects of rising fossil fuel and metal prices for major commodity exporters in the regions buoy the overall forecast.<\/p>\n

Emerging markets will still see growth next year, but risks remain:<\/strong> The Fund now expects growth in EM to come in at 3.6% this year, before rising slightly to 3.9% next year \u2014 down 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from April\u2019s forecast. The negative revisions came mainly on the back of the slowdown in growth in major emerging markets China and India over the past quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IMF has revised downwards its global growth outlook for this year and next, warning that gathering headwinds are pushing the world closer to recession. In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth weakening to 3.2% from 6.1% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":548132,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,115,72,348,272,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-548131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-imf","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"43f314c5-e264-4aba-bf1f-140ac60b9f2f","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[548125],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nIMF is \u201cgloomy and uncertain\u201d on global economy - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/27\/imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMF is \u201cgloomy and uncertain\u201d on global economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The IMF has revised downwards its global growth outlook for this year and next, warning that gathering headwinds are pushing the world closer to recession. 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The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575410,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/14\/imf-warns-of-long-protracted-recovery-as-it-eases-global-recession-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":548131,"position":2},"title":"IMF warns of long, protracted recovery as it eases global recession forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF warns of long, slow recovery as it eases global recession forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees the world\u2019s GDP contracting at a 4.4% pace \u2014 an improvement from the 4.9% it projected in its June outlook \u2014 after economies coming out of lockdown showed improved trade, retail\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/143.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590804,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":548131,"position":3},"title":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542966,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/26\/egypt-bucks-the-trend-as-imf-downgrades-global-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":548131,"position":4},"title":"Egypt bucks the trend as IMF downgrades global growth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF downgraded its projection for global growth in 2022 to 4.4% in its World Economic Outlook update, down 0.5 percentage points from its last outlook report in October. The lender sees growth slowing to 3.8% in 2023, noting that, although this forecast is 0.2 percentage points higher than its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/340.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556144,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/13\/inequality-threatens-pandemic-recovery-imf-says-in-its-latest-global-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":548131,"position":5},"title":"Inequality threatens pandemic recovery, IMF says in its latest global outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The global recovery is bruised, but not broken: The IMF slightly downgraded its projection for global growth in 2021 to 5.9% in its October World Economic Outlook report (pdf) \u2014 down a slim 0.1 percentage points from 6% in its last update in July. The international lender held its growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/142.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=548131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/548131\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/548125"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/548132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=548131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=548131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=548131"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=548131"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=548131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}