{"id":547842,"date":"2022-07-17T03:57:23","date_gmt":"2022-07-17T03:57:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/17\/inflation-slowed-in-june-but-it-was-probably-a-one-off\/"},"modified":"2022-07-17T03:57:23","modified_gmt":"2022-07-17T03:57:23","slug":"inflation-slowed-in-june-but-it-was-probably-a-one-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/17\/inflation-slowed-in-june-but-it-was-probably-a-one-off\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation slowed in June, but it was probably a one-off"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Inflation unexpectedly slowed for the first time in<\/strong> seven <\/strong>months <\/strong>in June<\/strong> as food prices declined for a second month in a row, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.2% during the month, slightly slower than the 13.5% rate of growth we saw in in May<\/a>. That defied the predictions of most analysts, who had expected rising global commodity prices to continue stoking local inflation. Overall, prices fell on a monthly basis for the first time since December, dipping 0.1%, the figures show.<\/p>\n

You can thank a moderation in food prices:<\/strong> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the biggest component of the basket used to measure inflation \u2014 fell for the second month in a row, declining 1.8% m-o-m due to a large drop in the cost of fruits and vegetables. Food prices were up 22.3% on an annual basis, down from 24.8% in May.<\/p>\n

BUT- The slowdown in food prices masked an increase in other items.<\/strong> Most of the other components of the inflation basket rose on an annual basis, with housing and utilities prices rising 7.6% (vs 7.4% in May), healthcare costs rising 4.3% (from 4.0% the month before) and clothes prices jumping to 9.0% (from 7.5% in May).<\/p>\n

This pushed core inflation to its highest level since 2017: <\/strong>Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel, climbed 14.6% on an annual basis in June, up from 13.3% in May, according to central bank data (pdf)<\/a>. Core inflation is now at its highest since December 2017 and has more than doubled this year.<\/p>\n

The EGP is likely responsible: <\/strong>\u201cA large driver of the pick up in non-food inflation is likely reflecting the impact of a weaker currency,\u201d James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. The EGP has fallen 20% against the USD since March<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe market is still absorbing the effects of the EGP devaluation as well as global inflation<\/strong>, in addition to the effect of higher customs rate for the USD,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos economist Esraa Ahmed wrote in a note. This resulted in \u201can acceleration in average annual inflation for non-food items, rising from 9.8% in May to 10.4% in June,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t be surprised if inflation returns to trend next month: <\/strong>\u201cWe believe inflation will continue to gain momentum in 3Q2022, with an expected monthly increase of 2.5-3% in July to reflect seasonal spending as well as the new energy prices introduced,\u201d Alia Mamdouh, director of macro and strategy at Beltone Financial told us. \u201cWe foresee inflation averaging 15.9% in 3Q2022, up from an average of 13.2% in 2Q2022.\u201d<\/p>\n

Does 17% feel right for a peak inflation figure?<\/strong> Capital Economics sees inflation reaching a ceiling of 17% in 4Q. Goldman Sachs also sees a 17% peak this year before falling back to the central bank\u2019s target range by the end of 2023. The central bank is currently targeting 7% (\u00b12%) inflation by the end of 2022.<\/p>\n

What does all this mean for interest rates? <\/strong>Most analysts expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on 18 August. \u201cThe CBE might be reluctant to rush into rate hikes that are very costly to the Egyptian macro-fiscal front,\u201d Ahmed wrote. \u201cThe CBE might prefer to hold rates in its upcoming meeting in August as the deviation from inflation targets is considered among the exogenous shocks that are outside the scope of monetary policy, that could be temporarily tolerated,\u201d she added. Capital Economics thinks the central bank will raise rates by another 150 bps before the end of the year.<\/p>\n

The CBE has already raised rates by 300 bps in the past four months<\/strong> in a bid to get a grip on inflation and curb outflows. The Monetary Policy Committee kept rates unchanged in its latest meeting<\/a> in June and said that it would \u201ctemporarily tolerate\u201d the elevated annual headline inflation rate relative to its target until 2023.<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s paying attention? <\/strong>The news is getting ink from the good people at Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation unexpectedly slowed for the first time in seven months in June as food prices declined for a second month in a row, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.2% during the month, slightly slower than the 13.5% rate of growth we saw in in May. That […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":547843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,1419,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-547842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b5767f10-3fb8-45c0-bc85-701b182e66d7","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/161.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[547838],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nInflation slowed in June, but it was probably a one-off - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/17\/inflation-slowed-in-june-but-it-was-probably-a-one-off\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation slowed in June, but it was probably a one-off\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation unexpectedly slowed for the first time in seven months in June as food prices declined for a second month in a row, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. 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The headline rate fell to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/291.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564507,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/","url_meta":{"origin":547842,"position":1},"title":"Headline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/429.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547161,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/","url_meta":{"origin":547842,"position":2},"title":"Inflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected and even slowed down on a monthly basis. Annual urban inflation rose to 13.5% last month from 13.1% in Aprilas rising global commodity prices and the EGP devaluation pushed consumer prices upwards for a sixth consecutive\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/223.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":619823,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/05\/12\/inflation-cools-for-the-second-consecutive-month-in-april\/","url_meta":{"origin":547842,"position":3},"title":"Inflation cools for the second consecutive month in April","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"On a monthly basis, food prices fell 0.9%","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/2603.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565871,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/10\/inflation-slows-unexpectedly-in-april\/","url_meta":{"origin":547842,"position":4},"title":"Inflation slows unexpectedly in April","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban headline inflation slowed in April against expectations, shrugging off rising global commodity prices thanks to a favorable base effect that offset a rise in monthly prices. Figures released today by state statistics bureau Capmas showed urban inflation fell to 4.1% in April from 4.5% in March, while the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589916,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/11\/inflation-soars-to-record-high-in-june\/","url_meta":{"origin":547842,"position":5},"title":"Inflation soars to record high in June","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Eid spending drove price hikes above analysts\u2019 expectations","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/356.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=547842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547842\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/547838"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/547843"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=547842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=547842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=547842"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=547842"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=547842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}