{"id":547810,"date":"2022-07-07T03:57:09","date_gmt":"2022-07-07T03:57:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/07\/this-morning-inflation-foreign-reserves-figures-out-today-fed-could-step-up-rate-hikes-to-tame-inflation\/"},"modified":"2022-07-07T03:57:09","modified_gmt":"2022-07-07T03:57:09","slug":"this-morning-inflation-foreign-reserves-figures-out-today-fed-could-step-up-rate-hikes-to-tame-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/07\/this-morning-inflation-foreign-reserves-figures-out-today-fed-could-step-up-rate-hikes-to-tame-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: Inflation + foreign reserves figures out today; Fed could step up rate hikes to tame inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re almost there, ladies and gentlemen:<\/strong> One working day remains before we all depart for a well-earned week off to mark the Eid holiday \u2014 although judging by the news flow right now, most of the country already seems to be in vacation mode. The EGX (pdf)<\/a> confirmed yesterday that the stock exchange will be closed for the week, following announcements by the central bank (pdf)<\/a> and the Manpower Ministry<\/a> earlier this week confirming that the banks and private sector will take the full week off.<\/p>\n

Enterprise <\/strong>is following suit:<\/strong> You\u2019ll find us on the beach after we hit \u201csend\u201d on this afternoon\u2019s PM edition. We\u2019ll be back in your inboxes at the appointed hour on Sunday, 17 July.<\/p>\n

Speaking of Eid, Saudi Arabia is likely to have received around 1 mn pilgrims for this year\u2019s hajj <\/strong>\u2014 the largest since the covid-19 pandemic began in 2020, the Associated Press<\/a> reports. Around 850k foreign pilgrims \u2014 selected through an online lottery \u2014 are participating in the first hajj in three years open to non-Saudis. Last year saw just 60k pilgrims travel to the religious site, down from 2.5 mn in 2019.<\/p>\n

Saudi has lifted nearly all virus-related restrictions<\/strong>, including an indoor mask mandate \u2014 but those performing hajj this year must be under 65 and vaccinated, and test negative for covid-19 within 72 hours of travel.<\/p>\n

\n

THE BIG STORY TODAY was<\/strong> the impact of inflation on Egypt\u2019s non-oil private sector:<\/strong> Business activity contracted at its fastest pace since June 2020 last month as rising inflation weighed on output and demand, according to the June PMI reading that dropped yesterday.<\/p>\n

The silver lining:<\/strong> Not all businesses were impacted and the rate of job cuts slowed down. More on this in the news well, below.<\/p>\n

HAPPENING TODAY-<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> The pre-Eid data dump:<\/strong> We\u2019re expecting Capmas and the central bank to publish June\u2019s inflation and foreign reserves data today ahead of the Eid break. Neither of the indicators were particularly promising last month, with inflation accelerating at its fastest pace in three years<\/a> and foreign reserves falling<\/a> by USD 2 bn to USD 35.5 bn.<\/p>\n

MAKING GLOBAL HEADLINES THIS MORNING-<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> A new sign that the Federal Reserve could go full Volcker is dominating the front pages of <\/strong>the business press:<\/strong> Federal Reserve officials are prepared to raise interest rates at an even faster rate to avoid the \u201csignificant risk\u201d that soaring inflation becomes entrenched, minutes (pdf)<\/a> from last month\u2019s policy meeting showed yesterday. The US central bank raised rates by 75 bps<\/a> in its June meeting \u2014 its most aggressive hike since 1994 \u2014 and signaled that a hike of the same magnitude could be coming when it next meets at the end July as it battles to control inflation which reached new 40-year highs in May. But the minutes yesterday showed a willingness among policymakers to become \u201ceven more restrictive\u201d if inflation continues to rise, even if that means provoking an economic slowdown. (Bloomberg<\/a> | FT<\/a> | WSJ<\/a> | CNBC<\/a> | NYT<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Another day in the slow-mo downfall of Boris Johnson:<\/strong> British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is refusing to step down amid growing rebellion in his party demanding his ouster. More than 40 ministers \u2014 including the chancellor and the health secretary \u2014 have resigned from the government in the past two days in protest at his leadership. (Reuters<\/a> | AP<\/a> | BBC<\/a> | FT<\/a> | WSJ<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>)<\/p>\n

In the US press:<\/strong> The aftermath of the July Fourth mass shooting in Chicago is still getting plenty of attention. (AP<\/a> | Reuters<\/a> | Washington Post<\/a> | NYT<\/a> | WSJ<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>)<\/p>\n

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\n Get Enterprise<\/b> daily
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The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a>\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

MARKET WATCH-<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> Have recession fears ended the commodity price shock?<\/strong> Commodity prices are falling across the board as financial markets respond to the increasing threat of recession, the Financial Times<\/a> reports. Energy, metals and food commodities have all gone into reverse as investors bet that an oncoming economic downturn will curb global demand, and temper the impact of the supply shock that sent them to record highs earlier this year. Oil is down markedly from its recent post- Ukraine invasion peak, S&P GSCI agricultural prices index has lost 28% since its record high in May, and a London Metal Exchange benchmark has fallen by a third since March.<\/p>\n

Oil continued to fall yesterday:<\/strong> Brent crude fell for a second day, ending the session below the USD 100 mark for the first time since April. The global benchmark has fallen around 10% this week, leaving it down almost a third from its recent peak in March. Citigroup analysts said this week that oil could be selling at USD 65 a barrel by the end of the year if forecasts of a recession are proved correct.<\/p>\n

But Goldman thinks the markets are being too hasty:<\/strong> \u201cWhile the odds of a recession are indeed rising, it\u2019s premature for the oil market to be succumbing to such concerns,\u201d analysts wrote in a note picked up by Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThe global economy is still growing, with the rise in oil demand this year set to significantly outperform GDP growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a risk of further supply shocks as relations between Russia and the West <\/strong>deteriorate:<\/strong> JPMorgan recently made the headline-making claim that prices could spiral to USD 380 a barrel if Moscow makes further cuts to supply as its energy standoff with the West intensifies.<\/p>\n

Also putting pressure on prices:<\/strong> A growing list of oil producers are offering large discounts as they look to compete with crude from Russia, which has slashed prices to attract Asian buyers in response to Western sanctions. Saudi Arabia became the latest country to lower its prices to Asia yesterday and is offering its Arab Heavy and Arab Medium grades at its largest discount to Arab Light since 2014, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. Iran, Venezuela and Iraq have all lowered prices in recent days to compete with the Russians.<\/p>\n

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-<\/strong><\/p>\n

Officials from Egypt, the UAE and Jordan will hold talks in Cairo later this month <\/strong>to discuss the new industrial partnership<\/a> agreed in May, cabinet said<\/a> Tuesday. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ will invest USD 10 bn in industrial projects under the initiative, which will see the three countries collaborate to boost manufacturing and exports. Egypt and the UAE will also sign an agreement to establish a huge 10 GW wind plant following the Eid Al Adha holiday, according to the statement.<\/p>\n

Public consultations on the <\/strong>state ownership policy document<\/a><\/strong> that outlines its <\/strong>privatization plans will resume on Sunday, 17 July<\/strong>, with air transport industry players taking center stage.<\/strong> Every Sunday and Tuesday sees workshops on how privatization plans will affect specific industries. You can find more details on the schedule of the meetings here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

National Dialogue meetings to resume 19 July:<\/strong> The board overseeing the National Dialogue will hold its second meeting on 19 July, during which it will discuss the agenda and form subcommittees. Board members met for the first time yesterday<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Need a refresher on the national dialogue?<\/strong> We\u2019ve got you covered<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Check out our full calendar on the web<\/a><\/strong> for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re almost there, ladies and gentlemen: One working day remains before we all depart for a well-earned week off to mark the Eid holiday \u2014 although judging by the news flow right now, most of the country already seems to be in vacation mode. The EGX (pdf) confirmed yesterday that the stock exchange will be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[317,72,655,182,349,91,185,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-547810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-commodities","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-pmi","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4c23742c-d805-4858-b893-0b1d0bc817ae","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[547808],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nTHIS MORNING: Inflation + foreign reserves figures out today; Fed could step up rate hikes to tame inflation - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/07\/this-morning-inflation-foreign-reserves-figures-out-today-fed-could-step-up-rate-hikes-to-tame-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"THIS MORNING: Inflation + foreign reserves figures out today; Fed could step up rate hikes to tame inflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We\u2019re almost there, ladies and gentlemen: One working day remains before we all depart for a well-earned week off to mark the Eid holiday \u2014 although judging by the news flow right now, most of the country already seems to be in vacation mode. 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The three-day construction conference opens today at the Egypt International Exhibition Center, and features over 240 exhibitors showcasing the latest in construction technology and innovation. The Shared Services and Outsourcing Forum opens tomorrow: Global leaders in the shared services industry will discuss emerging technologies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594530,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/01\/what-were-tracking-on-1-september-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":547810,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 1 September 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, ladies and gents \u2014 and welcome to September. The end of Sahel season as we know it means the promise of slightly better weather to brave the uptick in traffic from the new school year. Across the pond, your colleagues in North America are ringing in the new\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":631763,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/27\/what-were-tracking-on-27-march-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":547810,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 27 March 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 March 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"An interest rate cut by the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday will not spell the end of the carry trade, EFG Hermes Research believes. The investment bank says foreign purchases of Egyptian treasury bills will see an \u201ceffective\u201d decline in the event the CBE reduces interest rates, EFG\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":632462,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/12\/what-were-tracking-this-week-59\/","url_meta":{"origin":547810,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s interest rate week, and the folks on the sell side aren\u2019t so certain we\u2019ll see a rate cut: The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday to review rates.Our friends at Pharos think the MPC is most likely to maintain rates, but if a cut does come, it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598736,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/03\/what-were-tracking-on-03-june-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":547810,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 03 June 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s official: We\u2019re on Eid break as of tomorrow morning \u2014 but you may still be fasting. Both the central bank and the EGX have confirmed that our five-day Eid El Fitr weekend begins tomorrow. Banks, capital markets (and, by extension, much of the private sector) are on holiday Tuesday\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594682,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/04\/what-were-tracking-on-4-september-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":547810,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 4 September 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Can we start by saying how grateful we are that public schools are not yet back in session, meaning Cairo traffic is not at its worst these days? We expect that to change in a little over two weeks, though: Schools are expected to open\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=547810"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547810\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/547808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=547810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=547810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=547810"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=547810"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=547810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}