{"id":547482,"date":"2022-06-23T04:37:46","date_gmt":"2022-06-23T04:37:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/23\/this-morning-its-interest-rate-day\/"},"modified":"2022-06-23T04:37:46","modified_gmt":"2022-06-23T04:37:46","slug":"this-morning-its-interest-rate-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/23\/this-morning-its-interest-rate-day\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: It\u2019s interest rate day"},"content":{"rendered":"

Happy Thursday, ladies and gentlemen. <\/strong>Thankfully, yesterday\u2019s pacy newsflow has slowed a little as we roll on into the weekend \u2014 giving us a chance to unpack some of the big stories that came in this week.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY here at home: We\u2019re delving deeper into Finance Minister Mohamed Maait\u2019s comments at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha<\/strong>. Maait is advocating for a switch in focus from hot money to FDI, and hints that we could be in line for a four-year facility from the IMF.<\/p>\n

Legislation is a bit of a theme again today, too. <\/strong>We\u2019re gauging the reaction of the real estate sector to new regulations that will bring developers under a more watchful eye.<\/p>\n

<\/a> It\u2019s also interest rate day.<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will hold its latest policy meeting today against the backdrop of rising inflation and an acceleration of the biggest global tightening cycle in decades. Coming on the back of worsening inflation data<\/a> and the Federal Reserve\u2019s huge 75-bps rate hike<\/a> last week, emerging economies across the world will come under increasing pressure to act as liquidity tightens and borrowing costs rise. S&P Global<\/a> just yesterday brought the problems into focus, publishing a list of countries in Europe and emerging markets \u2060\u2014 Egypt among them \u2060\u2014 which could face credit stress should rates rise by 300 bps.<\/p>\n

But gauging what policymakers will do is proving harder this time around:<\/strong> A narrow majority of analysts we surveyed<\/a> last week expect the CBE to keep things steady this month while it assesses the impact of recent rate hikes on inflation in June and July. The central bank has already raised rates by 300 bps since March in response to inflation and external pressures<\/p>\n

A wider poll conducted by <\/strong>Reuters<\/a><\/strong> this week has the CBE raising interest rates.<\/strong> Its survey of 17 analysts forecasts a 50 bps increase in the benchmark rate to 11.75% and a 25 bps hike in the lending rate to 12.50%. \u201cIn a context of hawkish Fed policy and pressure on Egyptian external liquidity, a significant rise in CBE rate is needed for a recovery in portfolio inflows,\u201d said Pascal Devaux, senior economist at BNP Paribas.<\/p>\n

Are we saying goodbye to carry traders? <\/strong>Most crucial to the wider conversation on rates, is the government signaling that it will rely more on FDI and less on carry traders to boost FX reserves. The latest to stress this point was Finance Minister Mohamed Maait. We have more on his statements in our Economy section below.<\/p>\n

FACT CHECK- Maait did not say at the forum that Egypt is facing a food crisis,<\/strong> as some local media outlets have reported, according to a Finance Ministry statement<\/a>, which said the minister\u2019s statements on the global food crisis had been taken out of context and stressed that our reserves of key commodities are sufficient to last for six months.<\/p>\n

\n

Yet more love from the KSA? <\/strong>The Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) wants more cooperation with us on renewable energy and food security projects, fund head Sultan Abdulrahman Al-Marshad told International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat, according to a ministry statement<\/a>. The SFD will visit Egypt in September to tour projects it is helping finance, he said.<\/p>\n

SMART POLICY- Madbouly cabinet expands \u201cgolden licenses\u201d: <\/strong>The Madbouly cabinet approved yesterday amendments to the Investment Act\u2019s executive regulations that would expand access to \u201cgolden licenses\u201d to limited liability companies, according to a statement<\/a>. <\/strong>These licenses are meant to expedite approvals for projects \u2014 particularly for key sustainable development, energy, and infrastructure projects.<\/p>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE-<\/strong> Upping exports: <\/strong>The private sector\u2019s Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink)<\/a> will provide the government with a draft document on how to boost exports in the coming weeks, state run MENA agency<\/a> reported. The state has an ambitious plan toraise exports<\/a> to USD 100 bn a year by 2025, and the document would set out ways in which the government can improve the business climate to help companies export more.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD <\/strong>- <\/strong>Even the Fed is being forced to say the R word: <\/strong>Federal Reserve chief Jay Powell has admitted that the US central bank\u2019s stringent tightening policy could trigger a recession. \u201cWe are not trying to provoke and do not think we will need to provoke a recession, but we do think it\u2019s absolutely essential\u201d to curb decades-high inflation, Powell told Congress, adding that a recession was \u201ccertainly a possibility,\u201d according to the Wall Street Journal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Has the window closed on a soft landing? <\/strong>Powell was tight-lipped on whether the Fed would be able to pull off the \u201csoft landing\u201d it had been hoping for \u2014 bringing inflation back to its 2% target without triggering an economic downturn. \u201cThe events of the last few months around the world have made it more difficult for us to achieve what we want,\u201d he said. Powell\u2019s testimony also got ink from The Financial Times<\/a> and Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Analysts are falling over themselves to predict a recession. <\/strong>Deutsche Bank and Citigroup are the latest banks to forecast a high recession risk amid the hawkish global turn and war in Ukraine, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. \u201cAt least I would say we have 50% likelihood of a recession globally,\u201d Deutsche Bank\u2019s CEO Christian Sewing said yesterday, while Citigroup analysts also calling it a 50\/50 chance. \u201cThe experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth \u201d they said in a note.<\/p>\n

UP NEXT WEEK- <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> Get ready for a big Competition Act showdown: <\/strong>The House\u2019s Economic Committee has spent the week discussing proposed amendments<\/a> to the Competition Act that are proving controversial. Officials from the central bank, the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), the EGX, and the Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) haven\u2019t been able to iron out differences of opinion on the proposed amendments in two separate meetings this week, according to committee head Ahmed Samir. The committee will bring them back around the table for a final meeting this Sunday to try and force a consensus, he said.<\/p>\n

The amendments, which have been <\/strong>up in the air since last year<\/a><\/strong>, would give greater powers to the Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA)<\/strong> to regulate mergers and acquisitions and prevent monopolistic practices in the market. They would give the ECA the power to approve or block M&As. The authority\u2019s role is currently limited to raising red flags, but only after a transaction is concluded.<\/p>\n

The sticking points:<\/strong> Officials can\u2019t agree on how much notice businesses would have to give the ECA of M&A transactions, and the kind of fees it would impose on them, Samir said, without giving any further details.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next: <\/strong>The committee is pushing for the House to pass the amendments before it adjourns for summer recess, Samir said.<\/p>\n

Also happening next week: <\/strong>A group of Saudi real estate developers are set to visit Egypt next week to kick the tires on potential fresh investments here, particularly in new cities, Al Mal<\/a> reports, citing Egyptian Businessmen Association Vice Chairman Fathallah Fawzi. Representatives will meet Housing Minister Assem El Gazzar and Public Enterprises Minister Hesham Tawfik, and will be touring New Alamein City and the western North Coast, as well as El Galala.<\/p>\n

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The <\/strong>Big 5 Construct Egypt (pdf)<\/a><\/strong> construction industry exhibition<\/strong> runs from 25-27 June at the Egypt International Exhibition Center (EIEC) in Cairo.<\/p>\n

Amcham AGM next week:<\/strong> Our friends over at Amcham will hold their annual general meeting on Monday 27 June at the St. Regis Cairo Hotel. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait will address the gathering.<\/p>\n

Check out our full calendar on the web<\/a><\/strong> for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.<\/p>\n

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Happy Thursday, ladies and gentlemen. Thankfully, yesterday\u2019s pacy newsflow has slowed a little as we roll on into the weekend \u2014 giving us a chance to unpack some of the big stories that came in this week. THE BIG STORY here at home: We\u2019re delving deeper into Finance Minister Mohamed Maait\u2019s comments at the Qatar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[271,104,72,819,182,349,117,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-547482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fuel","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-us","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"758d07cb-6364-4515-bfac-3d307abb9653","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[547480],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nTHIS MORNING: It\u2019s interest rate day - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/23\/this-morning-its-interest-rate-day\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"THIS MORNING: It\u2019s interest rate day\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Happy Thursday, ladies and gentlemen. 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The big news today is that it\u2019s interest rate day as the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets to review rates. There\u2019s a firm consensus among analysts and economists we surveyed last week that policymakers will leave\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568245,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-23-december-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":547482,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 23 December 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to Christmas Eve Eve, for those of you who are observing. We can\u2019t say we\u2019re very interested in asking mom and dad for early permission to open just one gift that 2020 has left for us under the tree.The big story this morning: Rania\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578306,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/22\/this-morning-expect-another-mega-rate-hike-when-the-central-bank-meets-later-today\/","url_meta":{"origin":547482,"position":2},"title":"THIS MORNING: Expect another mega-rate hike when the central bank meets later today","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, dear readers, and congratulations on making it to the end of another week. Like many of you, we're going to be turning on our OoO responders on Sunday and having ourselves an extended weekend for the Christmas break. We'll be back in your inboxes on Monday at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/479.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554011,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/16\/this-morning-cbe-gathers-for-its-final-policy-meeting-today-new-gafi-services-unit-for-egx-listed-companies-schools-out-in-alexandria-again\/","url_meta":{"origin":547482,"position":3},"title":"THIS MORNING: CBE gathers for its final policy meeting today + new GAFI services unit for EGX-listed companies + school\u2019s out in Alexandria (again)","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends, and welcome to the final day of the workweek. We\u2019re looking forward to the weekend, even though our hopes of seeing Egypt in the Arab Cup final match on Saturday were dashed last night after the Pharaohs scored an own-goal in the last few seconds of their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559796,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/04\/what-were-tracking-on-3-february-2021-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":547482,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 3 February 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, everyone \u2014 we made it through another week together, and our just reward is \u2026 rainapocalypse?Today would be a great day to WFH: Expect rain with intermittent thunder and lightning in Cairo and Alexandria, the national weather service says. Rain is also forecast to sweep the Delta, there\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586926,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/18\/this-evening-its-interest-rate-day-el-sisi-heads-to-ksa\/","url_meta":{"origin":547482,"position":5},"title":"THIS EVENING: It\u2019s interest rate day + El Sisi heads to KSA","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Good afternoon, wonderful people, and a very happy THURSDAY to us all. We\u2019re winding down what has been a busy and exciting week, and the news cycle appears to be (kind of) on the same page.THE BIG STORY TODAY It\u2019s interest rate day: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=547482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547482\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/547480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=547482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=547482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=547482"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=547482"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=547482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}