{"id":547161,"date":"2022-06-12T04:10:59","date_gmt":"2022-06-12T04:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/"},"modified":"2022-06-12T04:10:59","modified_gmt":"2022-06-12T04:10:59","slug":"inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected <\/strong>and even slowed down on a monthly basis.<\/strong> Annual urban inflation rose to 13.5% last month from 13.1% in April<\/a>as rising global commodity prices and the EGP devaluation pushed consumer prices upwards for a sixth consecutive month<\/a>,<\/a> according to figures released by statistics agency Capmas on Thursday. This is the highest level since May 2019, though it came below the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters<\/a>, which predicted a median forecast of 14.2%. It was, however, above the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s target of 7% (\u00b12%).<\/p>\n

Rising food prices are behind the surge (yet again):<\/strong> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the biggest component of the basket used to measure inflation \u2014 rose 24.8% y-o-y in May, down slightly from 26% in April, as the war in Ukraine continued to hamper supplies of basic food staples. The increase was mostly driven by a significant jump in the cost of grains and bread (up 32.4% y-o-y), according to Capmas figures (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Monthly momentum slowed:<\/strong> Urban inflation slowed on a monthly basis for the first time since November, falling to 1.1% from 3.3% in April. This was thanks to a slowdown in food prices, which grew 0.6% compared to 7.6% in April.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation rose to 13.3% y-o-y<\/strong>, according to cent<\/a>ral bank data (pdf)<\/a>. Core inflation strips out volatile items such as food and fuel.<\/p>\n

Global commodity prices + the EGP devaluation are pressuring prices:<\/strong> \u201cThe continued higher level inflation readings are predominantly a reflection of both cost-push factors (including higher global commodity indices and a weaker EGP) and lower supplies,\u201d Naeem Brokerage\u2019s Allen Sandeep told Enterprise.<\/p>\n

Making the most of the wheat we\u2019ve got: <\/strong>Millers are reportedly using more wheat bran in their flour in efforts to stretch supplies, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing Magdy El Waily, member of the grain chamber at the Federation of Egyptian Industries. The measure will increase the volume of flour made from a ton of wheat by around 6% to 875 kgs, and will be introduced by the Supply Ministry starting next month.<\/p>\n

Prices could continue climbing:<\/strong> \u201cWe expect headline inflation to continue gaining momentum as the rise in global commodity prices reflects on the domestic market, coupled with base effect,\u201d Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh wrote in a note. Inflation could reach up to 17% this year, Farouk Soussa, Goldman Sachs\u2019 MENA economist, recently told Bloomberg TV<\/a>, before falling back into the CBE target range by the end of next year.<\/p>\n

Inflation could peak in July or August on h<\/strong>igher electricity + fuel prices: <\/strong>Expected changes to electricity and oil prices could push headline inflation towards 15-16% by July or August, Arqaam Capital Associate Director Noaman Khalid told Enterprise. \u201cWe think this could be the peak of inflation,\u201d Khalid said. Households could see their electricity bills rise<\/a> by as much as 21% from 1 July, according to the government\u2019s schedule to phase out subsidies by 2025. Meanwhile, the government\u2019s fuel pricing committee<\/a> will meet at the end of June to review prices at the pump.<\/p>\n

What does this mean for interest rates? Some analysts are predicting another hike: <\/strong> Al Ahly Pharos is expecting another 200-bps hike in the coming meetings, \u201cmost probably front-loaded\u201d this month, due to global monetary tightening and high food and energy prices, Al Ahly Pharos economist Esraa Ahmed wrote in a note last week. Arqaam sees a 100-150 bps hike this month, Khalid said.<\/p>\n

Others forecast rates to remain unchanged at least until August:<\/strong> Meanwhile, Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh thinks policymakers will hold off making further adjustments to the policy rate. \u201cWe believe it is still too early for a full reflection of the introduced interest rate hikes on inflation momentum; we expect maintained interest rates in the upcoming meeting,\u201d she wrote.<\/p>\n

The CBE has already raised rates by 300 bps in the past three months<\/strong>, with a 200-bps hike in May<\/a> following the 100-bps increase during the emergency meeting in March. The CBE said last month that it would \u201ctemporarily tolerate\u201d the elevated annual headline inflation rate relative to its target until 2023.<\/p>\n

Inflation is getting attention from the international business press: <\/strong>Reuters<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected and even slowed down on a monthly basis. Annual urban inflation rose to 13.5% last month from 13.1% in Aprilas rising global commodity prices and the EGP devaluation pushed consumer prices upwards for a sixth consecutive month, according to figures released […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":547162,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,317,104,72,182,563],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-547161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-wheat","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b70644bd-7dfc-4432-9cf7-635290bed657","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/223.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[547157],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nInflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected and even slowed down on a monthly basis. 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Annual headline rate accelerated to 4.8% in May from 4.1% in April, while the overall rate in urban and rural areas (pdf) rose to 4.9% last month from 4.4% a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/459.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547842,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/17\/inflation-slowed-in-june-but-it-was-probably-a-one-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":547161,"position":1},"title":"Inflation slowed in June, but it was probably a one-off","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation unexpectedly slowed for the first time in seven months in June as food prices declined for a second month in a row, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.2% during the month, slightly slower than the 13.5% rate of growth we\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/161.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":553861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/12\/urban-inflation-dips-to-lowest-level-since-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":547161,"position":2},"title":"Urban inflation dips to lowest level since July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation slowed for the second month running in November as pressure on food prices continued to ease, according to official figures released on Thursday. The headline rate fell to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/291.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572107,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/11\/egypts-inflation-decelerated-in-may-to-4-7-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":547161,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation decelerated in May to 4.7%, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We caught a break: Inflation cools to six-month low: Annual urban inflation in May slowed to its lowest level since November, dropping to 4.7% from 5.9% in April, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Food and beverage prices continue to be the main drivers: Food prices fell 0.7%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/133.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570695,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/12\/egypts-inflation-dips-slightly-in-march-to-5-1\/","url_meta":{"origin":547161,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation dips slightly in March to 5.1%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation dips slightly in March to 5.1%: Annual urban inflation cooled to 5.1% in March from 5.3% in February, according to Capmas data out on Thursday. Price growth increased 0.6% on a monthly basis compared to 0.8% during the same month last year, and zero in February. This is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565438,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/inflation-uptick-as-ramadan-approaches\/","url_meta":{"origin":547161,"position":5},"title":"Inflation uptick as Ramadan approaches","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation accelerated slightly to 4.8% in March, up from 4.6% in February, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. Annual urban inflation stood steady to 4.5% in March. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.6% m-o-m, compared to a 0.2% monthly rise in February. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=547161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547161\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/547157"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/547162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=547161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=547161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=547161"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=547161"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=547161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}