{"id":546769,"date":"2022-05-29T04:00:45","date_gmt":"2022-05-29T04:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/29\/moodys-egypt-outlook-turns-negative-on-rising-downside-risks\/"},"modified":"2022-05-29T04:00:45","modified_gmt":"2022-05-29T04:00:45","slug":"moodys-egypt-outlook-turns-negative-on-rising-downside-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/29\/moodys-egypt-outlook-turns-negative-on-rising-downside-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s Egypt outlook turns negative on \u201crising downside risks\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Moody\u2019s has cut its outlook on Egypt\u2019s credit rating to negative<\/strong> as tightening financing conditions puts pressure on the country\u2019s ability to make external debt repayments, it said on Thursday. The ratings agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B2 rating but warned that a further drop in foreign reserves could force it to downgrade its score for the first time since March 2013<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The rationale:<\/strong> \u201cThe negative outlook reflects the rising downside risks to the sovereign's external shock absorption capacity in light of a significant narrowing in the foreign exchange reserve buffer to meet upcoming external debt service payments,\u201d Moody\u2019s said. A prolonged rise in borrowing costs will heighten liquidity risks and reduce debt affordability, it added.<\/p>\n

Moody's competitors S&P and Fitch both <\/strong>maintained their ratings<\/a><\/strong> with stable outlooks in April<\/strong>. S&P currently rates Egyptian debt at BB while Fitch has it one notch higher at B+.<\/p>\n

Higher rates, lower reserves: <\/strong>Egypt has raised interest rates by 300 bps<\/a> since March and let the EGP slip against the USD<\/a> in a bid to keep inflation in check and remain attractive to the carry trade. Some USD 20 bn<\/a> left the country since the start of Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. Foreign reserves have fallen almost 10% to USD 37.1 bn<\/a> since February as the central bank intervened<\/a> to cover foreign outflows, meet debt repayments, and purchase strategic goods.<\/p>\n

Maybe easing the pressure:<\/strong> Recent financial support from the Gulf and the potential for a new IMF program. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have committed USD 22 bn in investment and central bank deposits to support Egypt\u2019s external position. At the same time, policymakers are in talks with the Fund for a limited<\/a> amount of new financing, which could add USD 3-4 bn to the country\u2019s reserve buffers \u2014 and see the Madbouly government double-down on its commitment to policy and other reforms.<\/p>\n

On the plus side:<\/strong> The B2 rating is supported by the government\u2019s \u201cproactive crisis response and track record of economic and fiscal reform,\u201d Moody\u2019s said. Expectations of strong GDP growth will help Egypt to attract foreign direct investment, while the country\u2019s large domestic funding base will help the government meet its high borrowing requirements, it said.<\/p>\n

Privatization strategy gets a thumbs up:<\/strong> Moody's expects the government's privatization strategy \u2014 which aims to bring in USD 40 bn in fresh investments over the next four years<\/a> \u2014 to help \u201cbolster Egypt's FX reserve buffer in the future,\u201d though it doesn\u2019t expect \u201crenewed large-scale inflows\u201d in the short term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Moody\u2019s has cut its outlook on Egypt\u2019s credit rating to negative as tightening financing conditions puts pressure on the country\u2019s ability to make external debt repayments, it said on Thursday. The ratings agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B2 rating but warned that a further drop in foreign reserves could force it to downgrade its score for the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[799,7106,1965,104,72,182,1324],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-546769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","tag-credit-rating","tag-debt","tag-debt-to-gdp","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-moodys","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e115975f-e507-4f53-a7c0-99b9d67b43e3","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[546762],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nMoody\u2019s Egypt outlook turns negative on \u201crising downside risks\u201d - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/29\/moodys-egypt-outlook-turns-negative-on-rising-downside-risks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moody\u2019s Egypt outlook turns negative on \u201crising downside risks\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Moody\u2019s has cut its outlook on Egypt\u2019s credit rating to negative as tightening financing conditions puts pressure on the country\u2019s ability to make external debt repayments, it said on Thursday. 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