{"id":546565,"date":"2022-05-22T03:45:31","date_gmt":"2022-05-22T03:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/22\/this-morning-monkeypox-and-a-bear-market-davos-starts-today\/"},"modified":"2022-05-22T03:45:31","modified_gmt":"2022-05-22T03:45:31","slug":"this-morning-monkeypox-and-a-bear-market-davos-starts-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/22\/this-morning-monkeypox-and-a-bear-market-davos-starts-today\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: Monkeypox and a bear market; Davos starts today"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends, and welcome to an absolutely packed Sunday issue. <\/strong>There are a number of new worries on our radar, but we\u2019re not hitting the \u201cAlaaaarm\u201d button just yet in a re-enactment of Das Boot.<\/a> To help you put things in context:<\/p>\n

<\/a> UH, SHOULD WE WORRY? #1-<\/strong> The past 24 hours has seen monkeypox push covid-19 off the front pages after the World Health Organization (WHO) announced what it called the \u201chighly unusual\u201d spread of the virus to countries in which it is rarely (if ever) found. The health body says<\/a> 92 cases have so far been found in 12 countries, including the US, Canada and nine European countries. Some 50 other suspected cases of the rare viral infection, which can spread from animals to humans and between people, are being investigated, and \u201cmore cases are likely to be reported,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

Egypt is (so far) in the clear:<\/strong> Egypt has not reported any infections of the disease, which is most common in remote areas in Central and West Africa, the Health Ministry said yesterday<\/a>.<\/p>\n

How worried should you be? <\/strong>You shouldn\u2019t be quaking in your boots just yet, but you should be keeping an eye on it. Good news:<\/strong> There\u2019s a vaccine. The smallpox vaccine is c. 85% effective against monkeypox. The bad news:<\/strong> Smallpox died out in the 1970s thanks to a concerted global vaccination drive, so anybody younger than about 50 has never been jabbed. The fatality rate is probably about 1% in poor populations in West Africa. Ed Yong won the Pulitzer for his work on covid-19 \u2014 go read his So, have you heard about monkeypox<\/a> for a very balanced dive into what we do and don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n

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UH, SHOULD WE WORRY? #2- US stocks are teetering on the edge of a bear market:<\/strong> The S&P 500 narrowly avoided entering a bear market thanks to last-minute gains during another volatile trading session on Friday. The index was down more than 2% in the afternoon, putting it down more than 20% from its all-time high in January, before a rally led it to close marginally in the green.<\/p>\n

The Dow Jones is now on its longest losing streak since 1932<\/strong> after ending last week lower for the eighth consecutive week. The S&P and the Nasdaq have now racked up seven straight weeks of losses \u2014 their longest run since 2001. Increasing concerns about an oncoming recession amid surging inflation and the biggest global tightening cycle in decades have wiped out USD 12 tn in value<\/a> from US stocks since a recent peak in March as investors flee risk assets. (Bloomberg<\/a> | WSJ<\/a>)<\/p>\n

A new phase?<\/strong> The sharp sell-off in retail shares and the bond rally on Wednesday has Mohamed El Erian worried that investors are becoming more pessimistic about earnings and economic growth. \u201cShould these worries prove valid \u2014 and I suspect they will, given my expectations of a stagflationary baseline \u2014 stock prices remain vulnerable,\u201d he writes for Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There is also a growing risk of a market malfunction<\/strong>, an event that would spillover into other areas of the financial markets and the real economy, El Erian writes. \u201cWhile the hope is that this week\u2019s market action is a continuation of a sell-off that is coming to its end, there is a real risk that it may be more than that \u2014 a new phase that threatens both more price losses and a higher possibility of market-functioning stress.\u201d<\/p>\n

When will it end?<\/strong> Morgan Stanley\u2019s bearish analyst Michael Hartnett noted that, of the 19 US bear markets in the past 140 years, the S&P fell by an average of 37.3% over 9.5 months. This would put the index at 3,000 by the end of October if repeated. \u201c3,600 is the new bull case,\u201d he wrote in a note, which would put it down another 7.7% from its current level.<\/p>\n

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UH, SHOULD WE WORRY? #3- Remember how we told you folks were starting to freak <\/strong>out on Planet Startup USA? <\/strong>Well, the alarm bells are ringing rather loudly now after Y Combinator sent out a note to founders suggesting they get into nuclear-winter survival mode<\/a>.<\/p>\n

WHAT\u2019S HAPPENING TODAY-<\/strong><\/p>\n

Davos 2022 starts today:<\/strong> The World Economic Forum (WEF) will kick off its first in-person annual meeting in more than two years today, bringing the world\u2019s captains of industry, policy and media back to the alpine village in Switzerland. Expect plenty of talk about Ukraine (sans the you-know-whos<\/a>), climate, food security, and the growing uncertainty over the global economy. \u201cHistory at a turning point\u201d indeed.<\/p>\n

On Day #1: <\/strong>The first day of the event<\/a> will see attendees chew over the global food crisis, the impact on the global economy of sanctions on Russia, and climate tech, as well as the future of globalization, national digital currencies and the effects of social media on societies. It will also see a special address from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.<\/p>\n

WEF runs through Thursday<\/strong> and you can check out the day-by-day agenda here<\/a>, if you\u2019re so inclined.<\/p>\n

IN THE HOUSE TODAY-<\/strong> MPs will discuss today a committee report on proposed amendments<\/a> to the Anti-Money Laundering Law. The changes would create an anti-money laundering unit at the central bank, handing it greater powers to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing. A new bill to organize Hajj trips will also be discussed by the House today.<\/p>\n

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We have two all-Egyptian finals tonight at the <\/strong>CIB-sponsored PSA squash <\/strong>championships:<\/strong> World #1 Nouran Gohar faces world #2 Nour El Sherbini for the women\u2019s championship title while the men\u2019s final match will see second seed Ali Farag play world #3 Mohamed El Shorbagy. The finals get underway this evening. The PSA has a good scene-setter here.<\/a><\/p>\n

What\u2019s at stake:<\/strong> The championship, which has been taking place at SODIC\u2019s Club S Allegria and at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization, has a record USD 550k in total player compensation<\/a> for each of the women\u2019s and men\u2019s titles.<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t have long to wait before Egypt\u2019s next squash tournament kicks off: <\/strong>The CIB-sponsored El Gouna International Squash Open 2022<\/a> starts this Friday and runs through to 3 June.<\/p>\n

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WATCH THIS SPACE-<\/strong> Changes at the Industrial Development Authority (IDA) designed <\/strong>to make life easier for investors <\/strong>are on the Trade and Industry Ministry\u2019s to-do list, Minister Nevine Gamea said last week<\/a>. The authority will work to simplify its procedures, aiming to attract more foreign investment into the industrial sector by making it easier for investors to acquire land and obtain licenses, among other things.<\/p>\n

FROM THE DUMPSTER FIRE THAT IS OUR SOCIAL MEDIA-<\/strong><\/p>\n