{"id":546118,"date":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","date_gmt":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/inflation-could-hit-17-this-year-on-the-back-of-the-devaluation-food-prices-goldman\/"},"modified":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","modified_gmt":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","slug":"inflation-could-hit-17-this-year-on-the-back-of-the-devaluation-food-prices-goldman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/inflation-could-hit-17-this-year-on-the-back-of-the-devaluation-food-prices-goldman\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation could hit 17% this year on the back of the devaluation, food prices \u2013Goldman"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Inflation could rise to 17% this year, \u201cbut most of it is transient,\u201d says Goldman Sachs:<\/strong> Inflation could climb as high as 17% this year thanks largely to the depreciation of the EGP and rising food prices, Farouk Soussa, Goldman Sachs\u2019 MENA economist, told Bloomberg TV yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:36<\/a>). Soussa expects inflation to remain elevated over the next 18 months but \u201cmost of it is transient,\u201d Soussa said, with the headline rate expected to fall back into the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s 7% (\u00b12%) target range by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n

This doesn\u2019t necessarily mean a spate of rate hikes:<\/strong> Goldman doesn\u2019t think the central bank will react to rising inflation with an aggressive tightening cycle \u2014 and expects interest rates to rise by only 100 bps over the summer. This will mean that Egypt\u2019s inflation-adjusted policy rate will remain negative, though Soussa says that policymakers will be more concerned with yields on local debt remaining high enough to attract portfolio inflows. The central bank will next meet to review interest rates on 19 May.<\/p>\n

The resumption of the state privatization program could catalyze more inflows:<\/strong> The news that the government wants to IPO military-owned firms on the EGX this year<\/a> is a positive step that could help to increase private sector investment in the economy, Soussa said. The \u201cover-extended role of the state in the economy\u201d has been one of the key barriers to private investment and any moves made to change this will be \u201cvery positive\u201d for investor sentiment, he said.<\/p>\n

Longer war in Ukraine = more pressure on Egypt:<\/strong> The two major sectors impacted by the war in Ukraine are wheat (>80% of our imports come from Russia and Ukraine), and tourism (with the two countries accounting for some 30-40% of our tourist arrivals), Soussa said. The Madbouly government\u2019s move to prioritize the local wheat harvest has allowed it to delay international purchases, but \u201cthe longer the war lasts, the more Egypt is going to need to import from abroad,\u201d he said. Rising import prices will inevitably have an impact on the country\u2019s balance of payments, he added.<\/p>\n

Bread reform on hold?<\/strong> Measures to raise food prices domestically \u2014 presumably through a reform of the bread subsidy program<\/a>, the details of which were scheduled to be announced by the end of March \u2014 are currently on hold, Soussa said, referring to a conversation he had with Finance Minister Mohamed Maait during the IMF \/ World Bank Spring Meetings.<\/p>\n

SIGNPOST- Expect more details on the state asset sale program <\/strong>to come<\/a><\/strong> after the Eid holiday.<\/strong> Also, Sovereign Fund of Egypt head Ayman Soliman said earlier this week<\/a> that stakes in military-owned bottled-water maker Safi and filling station operator Wataniya could be sold before the summer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation could rise to 17% this year, \u201cbut most of it is transient,\u201d says Goldman Sachs: Inflation could climb as high as 17% this year thanks largely to the depreciation of the EGP and rising food prices, Farouk Soussa, Goldman Sachs\u2019 MENA economist, told Bloomberg TV yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:36). Soussa expects inflation to remain […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":546119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,182,349,1341,587],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-546118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-russia-ukraine-conflict","tag-state-privatization-program","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7fc96e10-0086-4742-bc4a-7f3b09650f9f","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/389.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[546112],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nInflation could hit 17% this year on the back of the devaluation, food prices \u2013Goldman - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/inflation-could-hit-17-this-year-on-the-back-of-the-devaluation-food-prices-goldman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation could hit 17% this year on the back of the devaluation, food prices \u2013Goldman\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation could rise to 17% this year, \u201cbut most of it is transient,\u201d says Goldman Sachs: Inflation could climb as high as 17% this year thanks largely to the depreciation of the EGP and rising food prices, Farouk Soussa, Goldman Sachs\u2019 MENA economist, told Bloomberg TV yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:36). 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rates by as much as 50 bps at its meeting later this month, Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg (watch, runtime 7:12). \u201cWe see a very strong case for rate cuts in the near term, as in June.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/64.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582654,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/12\/inflation-surges-to-five-and-a-half-year-high-in-february-far-above-analysts-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":546118,"position":1},"title":"Inflation surges to five-and-a-half-year high in February, far above analysts\u2019 expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Food prices and core inflation hit record highs during the month.","rel":"","context":"In 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Annual urban inflation jumped to 13.1% last month from 10.5% in March, according to figures (pdf) released by statistics agency\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/136.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578351,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/26\/ending-the-year-on-a-big-note\/","url_meta":{"origin":546118,"position":3},"title":"Ending the year on a big note","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE drives home jumbo 300 bps rate hike: The Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates by 300 bps on Thursday \u2014 its biggest rate hike since 2016, before floating the EGP \u2014 as it looks to clamp down on rising inflationary pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiked the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/513.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":588365,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/11\/inflation-returns-to-acceleration-in-may\/","url_meta":{"origin":546118,"position":4},"title":"Inflation returns to acceleration in May","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Food and beverage inflation rose to 60% y-o-y","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/486.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547161,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/","url_meta":{"origin":546118,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected and even slowed down on a monthly basis. Annual urban inflation rose to 13.5% last month from 13.1% in Aprilas rising global commodity prices and the EGP devaluation pushed consumer prices upwards for a sixth consecutive\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/223.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=546118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546118\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/546112"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/546119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=546118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=546118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=546118"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=546118"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=546118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}