{"id":546116,"date":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","date_gmt":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/support-talks-with-imf-reach-technical-stage-as-lender-pinpoints-key-reforms-the-fund-expects-uneven-recovery-in-the-middle-east\/"},"modified":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","modified_gmt":"2022-04-28T03:57:25","slug":"support-talks-with-imf-reach-technical-stage-as-lender-pinpoints-key-reforms-the-fund-expects-uneven-recovery-in-the-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/support-talks-with-imf-reach-technical-stage-as-lender-pinpoints-key-reforms-the-fund-expects-uneven-recovery-in-the-middle-east\/","title":{"rendered":"Support talks with IMF reach technical stage as lender pinpoints key reforms + The Fund expects uneven recovery in the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>Talks between Egypt and the IMF on a fresh support package have reached the <\/strong><strong>\u201ctechnical stage,\u201d <\/strong>Jihad Azour, the multilateral lender\u2019s head of Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters at a press briefing on the release of the IMF\u2019s latest regional outlook yesterday, <a href=\"https:\/\/english.ahram.org.eg\/NewsContent\/3\/12\/465363\/Business\/Economy\/IMF-in-technical-discussions-for-anticipated-loan-.aspx\">Ahram Online<\/a> reports. Azour did not go as far as to say when the talks are expected to wrap up.<\/p>\n<p><strong>As ever, there will be strings attached: <\/strong>The IMF \u201chas identified three fundamental sectors that need quick reform,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asharqbusiness.com\/article\/36695\">Bloomberg Asharq<\/a> reports, citing Azour. They include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Monetary policy reform to return inflation to 7-8% this year. <\/strong>Inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/0ed1c340-3127-46cd-ad85-578f9a72874f\">recorded a three-year high last month<\/a> to sit at 10.5%, above the central bank\u2019s 7% (\u00b12%) target range. It will likely spike higher before tapering off (see the next story, below).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Greater flexibility in the exchange rate<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Stepping up structural reforms aimed at job creation and boosting growth.<\/strong> That sounds to us like a nod of support for the state\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/5391cdf0-e2f5-4354-9608-53fd3237a288\">redoubled efforts<\/a> to increase private sector participation in the economy, as well as the ongoing digital transformation push.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What would a support package look like?<\/strong> Something along the lines of a \u201cprecautionary and liquidity line\u201d loan amounting to as much as USD 3.5 bn, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/2ff6a741-f36a-4ae4-8cf4-c6b86096587e\">an earlier note<\/a> by BNP Paribas. We\u2019ve been <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f0975edf-53e6-4124-90c6-965a54f7fc41\">in talks with the IMF for over a month now<\/a> on support to mitigate fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine \u2014 including spiraling inflation and a tightening global monetary environment \u2014 on Egypt\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BACKGROUND- <\/strong>This marks the third time in recent memory we\u2019ve turned to the lender for emergency assistance, having secured USD 12 bn over three years to stabilize our economy following the 2016 devaluation, and a further USD 8 b in covid-era financing in 2020.<\/p>\n<p style='font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold' >A ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR THE MENA REGION<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising inflation will likely dampen the Middle <\/strong><strong>East\u2019s economic recovery in 2022<\/strong>, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook, which forecasts uneven regional growth caused by volatile commodity prices, higher inflation, a lingering pandemic, and more hawkish monetary policy in advanced economies. You can download the full report <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/REO_MCD-Spring-2022.pdf\">here (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Inflation in the region is expected to stay red-hot at 13.9% in 2022<\/strong>, which is slightly lower than the 14.8% recorded in 2021, the IMF said, attributing the high rate to the rising cost of food and energy, exchange rate depreciations in some cases (as in Egypt), as well as lax monetary policies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Real GDP will grow 5% in 2022 in MENA<\/strong> \u2014 slower than 5.8% in 2021, but an upward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the Fund\u2019s estimate in October. The higher forecast reflects \u201cthe improved outlook for oil exporters and better-than-expected growth in the first half of 2022 for Egypt,\u201d it said.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Output will be uneven across the region<\/strong>, with oil exporting countries projected to grow by 5.4%, emerging markets by 4.4%, and middle income countries by 1.1%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Talks between Egypt and the IMF on a fresh support package have reached the \u201ctechnical stage,\u201d Jihad Azour, the multilateral lender\u2019s head of Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters at a press briefing on the release of the IMF\u2019s latest regional outlook yesterday, Ahram Online reports. Azour did not go as far as to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":546117,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[317,104,93,72,1304,272,182,1778,1341],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-546116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gcc","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-middle-east","tag-russia-ukraine-conflict","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c74f67a6-db57-45a8-a2f0-15382c82dd13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/388.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[546112],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Support talks with IMF reach technical stage as lender pinpoints key reforms + The Fund expects uneven recovery in the Middle East - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/support-talks-with-imf-reach-technical-stage-as-lender-pinpoints-key-reforms-the-fund-expects-uneven-recovery-in-the-middle-east\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Support talks with IMF reach technical stage as lender pinpoints key reforms + The Fund expects uneven recovery in the Middle East\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Talks between Egypt and the IMF on a fresh support package have reached the \u201ctechnical stage,\u201d Jihad Azour, the multilateral lender\u2019s head of Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters at a press briefing on the release of the IMF\u2019s latest regional outlook yesterday, Ahram Online reports. 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Egypt and the IMF are currently in talks to set the parameters of a potential future engagement once our USD 12 bn Extended Fund Facility expires next month, the IMF\u2019s Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour tells\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":636806,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/11\/01\/egypt-seeing-broad-based-growth-neom-to-benefit-the-whole-region-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":546116,"position":1},"title":"Egypt seeing broad-based growth, Neom to benefit the whole region -IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 November 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is now seeing a \u201c\u2018broad-based,\u2019 recovery across industries, a sign that reform measures such as floating the currency are starting to pay off even as inflation remains high,\u201d Jihad Azour, head of the IMF\u2019s Middle East and Central Asia Department, told Bloomberg. \u201cThe reemergence of growth as we see\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":600940,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/14\/imf-praises-egypts-commitment-to-reform-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":546116,"position":2},"title":"IMF praises Egypt\u2019s commitment to reform program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt again telegraphs it won\u2019t be signing up for another IMF loan after drawing down the last of the current USD 12 bn facility: IMF Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour gave Egypt tubtubs as he met yesterday with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and Central Bank of Egypt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/2\/1585.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":649099,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/04\/23\/imf-wants-egypt-to-raise-interest-rates-to-curb-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":546116,"position":3},"title":"IMF wants Egypt to raise interest rates to curb inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 April 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF looks to be pushing Egypt to keep interest rates high in a bid to curb inflation. 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