{"id":546046,"date":"2022-04-26T04:06:17","date_gmt":"2022-04-26T04:06:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/"},"modified":"2022-04-26T04:06:17","modified_gmt":"2022-04-26T04:06:17","slug":"sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a <\/strong>stable outlook<\/strong>, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here<\/a> and here<\/a>). The agencies attributed their affirmed outlook and rating to the government\u2019s policy response and the likely influx of external support.<\/p>\n

What they said:<\/strong> \u201cThe stable outlook reflects our expectation that the Egyptian authorities\u2019 policy response, alongside significant external support, should prevent a material deterioration in external and fiscal positions due to rising commodity prices,\u201d S&P Global wrote in its note on Friday. Fitch added in its report that the rating was supported by Egypt\u2019s \u201clarge economy with robust growth and strong support from bilateral and multilateral partners.\u201d<\/p>\n

A helping hand from the Gulf:<\/strong> \u201cGCC support and a new IMF programme will support investor confidence, in our view,\u201d Fitch wrote, adding that it expects talks with the IMF<\/a> to result in a new financing package from the lender. Saudi Arabia has already deposited USD 5 bn<\/a> with the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and the Saudi sovereign wealth fund is looking to invest USD 10 bn in Egypt\u2019s healthcare, education, agriculture and financial services sectors. Meanwhile, the government has received USD 1.8 bn from Abu Dhabi after ADQ purchased state-held stakes<\/a> in several listed companies, and Qatar has pledged to invest USD 5 bn<\/a> in Egypt.<\/p>\n

The rate hike + EGP devaluation helped preserve our FX reserves:<\/strong> The devaluation of the EGP in March<\/a>, along with the CBE\u2019s 100-bps interest rate hike, helped preserve reserves, S&P wrote, while our inclusion in the JPMorgan GBI-EM bond index<\/a> should help \u201creduce volatility in portfolio flows by shifting some investment to passive management, generating lower yields and increasing demand for longer-dated debt.\u201d<\/p>\n

The government is likely to cover higher wheat prices <\/strong>by \u201cusing exchange rate and interest rate policy to manage economic adjustments alongside external funding support from bilateral and multilateral parties,\u201d S&P wrote. The government said in early March that rising wheat prices would cost it an additional EGP 15 bn<\/a> this fiscal year, penciling the cost in at USD 350 per ton. Wheat prices soared almost 20% in March alone, as the war disrupted exports from major exporters Russia and Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Outlook good for debt-to-GDP ratio:<\/strong> \u201cWe expect government debt\/GDP to fall to about 91% in FY 2021-2022, from 92% the year before and to remain on a slight downward trend, despite the impact of currency devaluation,\u201d Fitch wrote, noting that dampened growth amid higher interest rates could present a risk to debt dynamics. The government had been planning<\/a> to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to below 90% in FY2022-2023 and 82.5% by June 2025 \u2014 but that was before the Russia-Ukraine war started to hit government finances.<\/p>\n

Inflation will continue to rise, and further interest rate hikes are likely: <\/strong>Both Fitch and S&P expect inflation to continue to rise throughout the year, as the EGP devaluation adds to inflationary pressures. Fitch forecasts inflation hitting 10% in FY 2021-2022, and 12% in the next fiscal year. \u201cIn our view, the CBE is likely to raise interest rates further to maintain positive real policy rates, tame inflation, and support the EGP and attractiveness of local-currency assets,\u201d the agency wrote. \u201cWe assume a further 300 bps in rate rises by FY 2023-2024.\u201d<\/p>\n

The two agencies predict slower economic growth:<\/strong> Fitch forecasts 6% economic growth in FY 2021-22 and 4.5% growth in FY 2022-2023, while S&P pegged growth at a slightly lower 5.7% for the current fiscal year. S&P\u2019s forecast tallies with the government\u2019s recent revision<\/a>, which was attributed to the impact of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Current account deficit to narrow to 4% of GDP in FY 2021-2022:<\/strong> Both Fitch and S&P expect the current account deficit to narrow to USD 18 bn during the current fiscal year, down from USD 18.4 bn in FY 2020-2021. Tourism receipts will continue to rise despite the loss of two of our biggest tourist destinations. S&P also expects further mitigation due to higher remittances from Egyptians in the GCC benefiting from the spike in oil prices. Fitch expects the deficit to narrow further to 3.5% of the GDP in FY 2022-2023, while S&P expects it to reach 3% by 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a stable outlook, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here and here). The agencies attributed their affirmed outlook and rating to the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":546047,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[799,104,72,905,272,182,1095,1653],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-546046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-credit-rating","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-sp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7ebacaaf-4b38-4309-a61f-6d49a7cfa430","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/351.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[546039],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nS&P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a stable outlook, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here and here). 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The ratings agency also removed it from its rating watch negative list, reflecting its view of diminishing near-term risks to its credit profile, especially its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking + Finance"","block_context":{"text":"Banking + Finance","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/banking-finance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595516,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/fitch-affirms-credit-ratings-of-credit-agricole-national-bank-of-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":546046,"position":1},"title":"Fitch affirms credit ratings of Credit Agricole, National Bank of Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term issuer default rating for Credit Agricole Egypt (CAE) at 'AA+\u2019 with a \u2018stable outlook,\u2019 the agency said in a press release. The agency has also affirmed its rating for the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) at 'B+' with a stable outlook. \u201cThe ratings of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking + Finance"","block_context":{"text":"Banking + Finance","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/banking-finance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586887,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/18\/fitch-downgrades-credit-ratings-of-four-local-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":546046,"position":2},"title":"Fitch downgrades credit ratings of four local banks","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The banks now have a rating of B, down from B+","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1032.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593361,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/26\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-with-a-stable-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":546046,"position":3},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+ with a stable outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The agency said that Egypt\u2019s rating affirmation is supported by \u201ca recent track record of economic and fiscal reforms, and improvements to macroeconomic stability and external finances.\u201d On the flipside, Egypt\u2019s \u201cstill large fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/178.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564979,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/fitch-gives-long-term-fx-debt-outlook-a-%f0%9f%91%8d\/","url_meta":{"origin":546046,"position":4},"title":"Fitch gives long-term FX debt outlook a ?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The outlook is supported by the country\u2019s track record of fiscal and economic reforms, which authorities continued to enact, and a large economy, \u201cwhich has demonstrated stability and resilience through the global health crisis,\u201d the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/440.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573294,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/28\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-rating-at-b-outlook-stable\/","url_meta":{"origin":546046,"position":5},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer rating at B+; outlook stable","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed yesterday Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The ratings agency said that Egypt\u2019s \u201crecent track record of fiscal and economic reforms, policy commitment to furthering the reform program and ready availability of fiscal and external financing in the face of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/224.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=546046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546046\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/546039"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/546047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=546046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=546046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=546046"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=546046"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=546046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}