{"id":546006,"date":"2022-04-20T03:56:11","date_gmt":"2022-04-20T03:56:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/20\/imf-upgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-in-2022-despite-a-significant-slowdown-globally\/"},"modified":"2022-04-20T03:56:11","modified_gmt":"2022-04-20T03:56:11","slug":"imf-upgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-in-2022-despite-a-significant-slowdown-globally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/20\/imf-upgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-in-2022-despite-a-significant-slowdown-globally\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF upgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in 2022 despite a \u201csignificant slowdown\u201d globally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>The IMF has cut its global GDP forecast for this year and the next<\/strong> as surging inflation and economic fallout from the war in Ukraine hit growth prospects. The Fund revised downwards its growth projections for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6% in its latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2022\/04\/19\/world-economic-outlook-april-2022\">World Economic Outlook<\/a> \u2014 that\u2019s 0.8 percentage points lower for this year (and 0.2 ppt less for next year) than in its last forecast in <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/4e675696-18e3-408c-91de-5e3665a8d6bf\">January<\/a>. The revision marks a \u201csignificant slowdown in global growth\u201d as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to cause \u201cworldwide spillovers through commodity markets, trade, and financial channels.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style='font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold' >EGYPT IS A BRIGHT SPOT FOR GROWTH<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt seems set to buck the trend this year:<\/strong> The lender revised upwards Egypt\u2019s growth for the current fiscal year despite soaring food and energy prices threatening to weigh on economic activity. The IMF now expects the Egyptian economy to expand at a 5.9% clip in FY 2021-2022, up 0.3 percentage points from its previous forecast in January. This is the second time the IMF has upgraded Egypt\u2019s growth forecast this year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>That\u2019s even more optimistic than official figures:<\/strong> The government <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7206091d-85f9-42f4-9092-59a11e3ea203\">recently lowered<\/a> its growth outlook for the current fiscal year to 5.7% from 6.2-6.5% due to the economic impact of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The economy won\u2019t grow next year quite as much as previously expected:<\/strong> The Fund now sees our economy growing by 5.0% in FY 2022-2023, down from its previous 5.6% prediction.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Consumer prices in Egypt will rise on average b<\/strong><strong>y 7.5% this year<\/strong>, then rise at an 11.0% prace in 2022-2023, according to the IMF. The annual urban rate reached a <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/0ed1c340-3127-46cd-ad85-578f9a72874f\">three-year high of 10.5%<\/a> in March, and analysts are forecasting inflation to continue rising in the months ahead, with some predicting it to go as high as <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/807485e3-9dd7-44e3-987f-a0764ab9436e\">15%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The war is going to hit our external position:<\/strong> The IMF sees Egypt\u2019s current account falling further into deficit over the next year as the war drives up import spending, <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/4be5dcc6-3735-46ed-a1e8-eac4eb200706\">hurts tourism revenues<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/1081735e-da66-4ffd-a584-d44e361d6b8c\">drives portfolio outflows<\/a>. The Fund expects the deficit to narrow to 4.3% of GDP this fiscal year before rising back to 4.6% in 2022-2023.<\/p>\n<p><strong>REMEMBER- We\u2019re on a different reporting timeline to much of the world. <\/strong>The IMF\u2019s global forecast (and most of its country forecasts) is based on data for the calendar year. Egypt is among a handful of countries whose fiscal year runs from July to June, meaning the impact of the war (which broke out at the end of February) will likely be more keenly felt next fiscal year than in the current one.<\/p>\n<p style='font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold' >EMERGING MARKETS WILL STRUGGLE<\/p>\n<p><strong>The outlook for emerging markets is bleak in the long term: <\/strong>\u201cScarring effects are expected to be much larger in emerging markets and developing economies than in advanced economies \u2014 reflecting more limited policy support and generally slower vaccination \u2014 with output expected to remain below the pre-pandemic trend throughout the forecast horizon,\u201d the lender writes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Western monetary tightening poses bigger risks for EMs: \u201c<\/strong>The war and the impending increase in global interest rates will further reduce fiscal space in many countries, especially oil- and food-importing emerging markets,\u201d the Fund says, adding that these threats could create some \u201ccredit market vulnerabilities [...] with implications for financial stability.\u201d Rising interest rates could also lead to further withdrawals of capital and more currency depreciation that would, in turn drive up inflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The IMF is emphasizing the need for prompt \u2014 yet balanced \u2014 responses from policymakers: <\/strong>Policymakers are in for a tough balancing act, as they attempt to rein in the short-term implications of the war, while maintaining long-term growth, the IMF writes. It added that some economies will need to secure \u201cadequate liquidity support to tide over short term refinancing difficulties\u201d while others could need \u201ccomprehensive sovereign debt restructuring.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Reminder: Egypt <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f0975edf-53e6-4124-90c6-965a54f7fc41\">is in talks<\/a><\/strong><strong> with the IMF for a support program, <\/strong>which could come under a \u201cprecautionary and liquidity line\u201d and amount to <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/2ff6a741-f36a-4ae4-8cf4-c6b86096587e\">as much as USD 3.5 bn<\/a>. The PLL \u201ccould be supplemented by an extended fund facility that could take another three to six months to negotiate\u201d with the IMF, BNP Paribas Middle East and North Africa economist Mohamed Abdelmeguid previously wrote.<\/p>\n<p style='font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold' >MORE ON THE GLOBAL TREND<\/p>\n<p><strong>Food, oil and commodity prices pose the biggest threats to global growth: <\/strong>Russia is a major supplier of oil, gas, metals, and other commodities, which has led to global price elevation \u2014 exacerbating already heightened prices and supply crunches caused by pent up post-pandemic demand.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bad news for food security: <\/strong>Food prices are forecast to remain high throughout the year and into 2023 after <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/0a531ab4-a71d-4b9e-a476-acd4be67475b\">reaching a new all-time high<\/a> last month, according to the IMF, with low-income countries the most affected. The Fund name-checks wheat as one of the commodities for which it expects prices to remain high into next year. Wheat prices <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/0a531ab4-a71d-4b9e-a476-acd4be67475b\">soared<\/a> almost 20% last month, as the war disrupted exports from major exporters Russia and Ukraine. As we\u2019ve mentioned not infrequently since the war broke out, Egypt is the world\u2019s largest importer of the grain, with Russia and Ukraine normally supplying over 80% of our imports.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But slightly better news for oil: <\/strong>\u201cAlthough the price of oil has risen sharply, spare capacity in other countries and the release of petroleum reserves will likely mean that these increases will be contained over the medium term,\u201d the lender notes, adding that oil prices will likely affect growth most severely in 2022.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"grey-line\">\n<p><strong>SPEAKING OF GLOBAL FINANCE LEADERS- Where\u2019s the coordinated push on <\/strong><strong>food security we were promised? <\/strong>US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen yesterday told the World Bank and the IMF to \u201cget concrete\u201d on measures to battle food insecurity amid spiraling commodities prices, the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-janet-yellen-93487cb2e8e33f1b9e9188524423a3d4\">AP<\/a> writes, on the sidelines of the two lenders\u2019 spring meetings. Yellen had <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ff909552-1f31-43b4-a8e8-54dbb6a7be83\">reportedly been planning<\/a> to bring the international lenders and reps from wealthy nations around a table to put together a coordinated response to the looming food crisis \u2014 but we\u2019ve heard nothing on that front yet.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The WB is making some moves on food: <\/strong>WB President David Malpass told Yellen the lender would allocate USD 17 bn per year to bolster food security. The WB yesterday announced a new USD 170 bn \u201ccrisis financing target,\u201d which will target countries taking in significant numbers of Ukrainian refugees and those (like us) facing food supply issues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The IMF has cut its global GDP forecast for this year and the next as surging inflation and economic fallout from the war in Ukraine hit growth prospects. The Fund revised downwards its growth projections for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook \u2014 that\u2019s 0.8 percentage points lower for this [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":546007,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[317,104,115,72,348,272,182,349,91,1095],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-546006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-russia-ukraine-war","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"773b32f1-c37f-45ca-8845-65d05411a210","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/335.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[546002],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>IMF upgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in 2022 despite a \u201csignificant slowdown\u201d globally - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/20\/imf-upgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-in-2022-despite-a-significant-slowdown-globally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMF upgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in 2022 despite a \u201csignificant slowdown\u201d globally\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The IMF has cut its global GDP forecast for this year and the next as surging inflation and economic fallout from the war in Ukraine hit growth prospects. 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