{"id":545861,"date":"2022-04-14T04:10:03","date_gmt":"2022-04-14T04:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/"},"modified":"2022-04-14T04:10:03","modified_gmt":"2022-04-14T04:10:03","slug":"rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Rasmala sees 15% inflation, 2x rate hikes by July \u2014 and really likes our carry trade"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> 15% inflation + two more rate hikes by July?<\/strong> That\u2019s the prognosis given by Doug Bitcon, head of credit strategies at Dubai-based investment bank Rasmala, who told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 4:25<\/a>) yesterday that rising food prices are a \u201cbig issue\u201d for Egypt as we look to simultaneouly shore up our external position and secure new supplies of wheat. \u201cWe\u2019re going to see inflation top out at around 15%,\u201d he said, adding that the EGP devaluation is going to compound upward pressures on prices.<\/p>\n

Reminder #1<\/strong>- Annual urban inflation <\/strong>rose to 10.5%<\/a><\/strong> in March<\/strong> \u2014 its highest level in almost three years \u2014 as spillover effects from the conflict in Ukraine continued to hit the Egyptian economy. The headline rate was driven by food prices, which accelerated at their quickest rate since October 2018, reaching 19.8% from 17.6% in February. Analysts differ on when inflation will likely peak, with CI Capital forecasting a peak near 12.5% in April, while Al Ahly Pharos expects price hikes to continue into the summer, peaking near 12% in August.<\/p>\n

Reminder #2- Russia and Ukraine before the war accounted for more than 80% of our wheat supplies.<\/strong> We have lots more on that in the Commodities section, above.<\/p>\n

More rate hikes coming:<\/strong> \u201cWe expect at least another 1% increase in interest rates in May, and another 1% in July,\u201d Bitcon said, adding that Egypt\u2019s all-important carry trade has been \u201cvery [lucrative]\u201d in the past, and that there still is hope. \u201cIf you\u2019re thinking to convert into EGP at the higher exchange rate, you don't have that exchange risk and you get that positive carry<\/strong>,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

The Central Bank of Egypt <\/strong>raised rates by 100 bps<\/a><\/strong> in March<\/strong> and simultaneously allowed the EGP to fall against the USD, a move Bitcon said was designed to get the \u201cportfolio flows flowing back in.\u201d FX reserves fell by USD 4 bn last month<\/a> as the central bank moved to cover what it called \u201csubstantial foreign investor outflows\u201d and purchase strategic goods. The CBE will next meet to review interest rates on 19 May.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

15% inflation + two more rate hikes by July? That\u2019s the prognosis given by Doug Bitcon, head of credit strategies at Dubai-based investment bank Rasmala, who told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 4:25) yesterday that rising food prices are a \u201cbig issue\u201d for Egypt as we look to simultaneouly shore up our external position and secure […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":545862,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[838,1710,104,72,182,349,1711],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-545861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-devaluation","tag-doug-bitcon","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-rasmala-investment-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"807485e3-9dd7-44e3-987f-a0764ab9436e","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/246.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[545852],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nRasmala sees 15% inflation, 2x rate hikes by July \u2014 and really likes our carry trade - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rasmala sees 15% inflation, 2x rate hikes by July \u2014 and really likes our carry trade\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"15% inflation + two more rate hikes by July? That\u2019s the prognosis given by Doug Bitcon, head of credit strategies at Dubai-based investment bank Rasmala, who told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 4:25) yesterday that rising food prices are a \u201cbig issue\u201d for Egypt as we look to simultaneouly shore up our external position and secure […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-04-14T04:10:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/246.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Rasmala sees 15% inflation, 2x rate hikes by July \u2014 and really likes our carry trade\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-14T04:10:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/\"},\"wordCount\":347,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/246.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"devaluation\",\"Doug Bitcon\",\"economy\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"inflation\",\"interest rates\",\"Rasmala Investment Bank\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/\",\"name\":\"Rasmala sees 15% inflation, 2x rate hikes by July \u2014 and really likes our carry trade - 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