{"id":545515,"date":"2022-04-03T04:03:10","date_gmt":"2022-04-03T04:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/03\/ebrd-trims-egypts-growth-outlook-for-2022-finmin-mulling-price-of-oil-in-2022-2023-budget\/"},"modified":"2022-04-03T04:03:10","modified_gmt":"2022-04-03T04:03:10","slug":"ebrd-trims-egypts-growth-outlook-for-2022-finmin-mulling-price-of-oil-in-2022-2023-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/03\/ebrd-trims-egypts-growth-outlook-for-2022-finmin-mulling-price-of-oil-in-2022-2023-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"EBRD trims Egypt\u2019s growth outlook for 2022 + FinMin mulling price of oil in 2022-2023 budget"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> EBRD trims Egypt 2022 growth outlook on inflation concerns:<\/strong> The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded Egypt\u2019s 2022 growth outlook due to rising food and energy price inflation caused by the conflict in Ukraine. The lender expects the economy to grow at a <\/strong>3.1% clip this year,<\/strong> down from the 5.0% it had penciled in<\/strong> last November, according to its latest Regional Economic Update (pdf)<\/a>. The economy will then rebound in 2023, growing 6%, according to the bank\u2019s figures.<\/p>\n

Imported inflation is to blame: <\/strong>The EBRD attributed the downgrade to Egypt\u2019s dependency on food and oil imports, which it says makes it more vulnerable to price hikes caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. \u201cIn Egypt and Tunisia especially, food and fuel subsidies (and\/or price caps) might limit inflation for households, but create a burden for public finances,\u201d the bank wrote. The government has already capped prices<\/a> of unsubsidized bread and announced an EGP 130 bn economic support package<\/a> since the war began in a bid to mitigate the impact of inflation on consumers.<\/p>\n

Things aren\u2019t looking good on the tourism and supply chain fronts either:<\/strong> \u201cA drop in tourism as well as general supply chain bottlenecks and volatility could also affect important growth drivers,\u201d the bank wrote , adding that Ukrainian and Russian tourists accounted for around 20% of arrivals in Egypt in recent years. Weaker tourism income could add further pressure on the exchange rate should the crisis become protracted, it warned. The Central Bank of Egypt has already allowed the EGP to depreciate<\/a> against the USD in order to absorb part of the impact, falling some 15% in recent weeks.<\/p>\n

The silver lining: The turmoil in the global energy markets could help Egypt realize its gas export ambitions<\/strong> as Europe searches for alternative sources of energy, the EBRD wrote, adding that this would happen only if \u201cEurope engaged more actively to resolve current tensions and facilitate pipeline access.\u201d Egypt is one of the countries that Europe is looking to<\/a> to help solve its gas shortfall as it decreases its reliance on Russian supplies, and Oil Minister Tarek El Molla has pointed to<\/a> the possibility of us exporting more LNG given elevated energy prices across the board on the back of the war.<\/p>\n

Shoukry lines up French backing<\/p>\n

Foriegn Minister Sameh Shoukry called on the EU for support<\/strong>, asking French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian on a call for economic and political support as Egypt grapples with fallout from the war in Ukraine. Shoukry is asking France, which holds the presidency of the EU council<\/a>, to back Egypt in talks with both EU and international financial institutions, according to a Foreign Ministry statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

EU financial support could be the latest in a stream of international fiscal support. <\/strong>We are already in talks with the IMF<\/a> on a new program, under which the IMF will provide the Egyptian government with support. Saudi Arabia deposited USD 5 bn<\/a> with the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), as our Gulf neighbors move to help shore up our finances amid global fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, prior to which we received support from both the UAE<\/a> and Qatar<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Foreign Ministry could budget for oil at up to USD 85<\/p>\n

The Finance Ministry could set oil prices at USD 80-85 a barrel in the FY 2022-2023 <\/strong>budget<\/strong>, Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 1:25<\/a>), suggesting the ministry closely monitoring market dynamics as it works on the new budget.<\/p>\n

Analysts are expecting Brent to remain above USD 100 a barrel for the remainder of this calendar year<\/strong> as the spillover effects from the Ukraine conflict continue to weigh on an already tight market. In its latest forecast<\/a>, Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent projections by USD 15 to USD 120 per barrel through 2H 2022 and currently expects prices to average USD 110 in 2023.<\/p>\n

BACKGROUND- <\/strong>The current FY2021-2022 budget had assumed an average Brent price of USD 60, well below the prices it has reached since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. While we export natural gas and produce oil, we\u2019re a net oil importer. Each barrel we import now costs the state about double what it had forecast in the current fiscal year\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n

Brent crude settled at USD 104.39 on Friday<\/strong>, posting its biggest weekly drop in over a decade after the US ordered an unprecedented release of its strategic reserves to temper prices, Bloomberg<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EBRD trims Egypt 2022 growth outlook on inflation concerns: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded Egypt\u2019s 2022 growth outlook due to rising food and energy price inflation caused by the conflict in Ukraine. The lender expects the economy to grow at a 3.1% clip this year, down from the 5.0% it […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":545516,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7264],"tags":[571,1584,72,276,1583,348,1095,1084],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-545515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-war-watch","tag-ebrd","tag-economy-watch","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance-ministry","tag-fy-2022-2023-budget","tag-gdp","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-war-watch","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7bb6d97b-7276-45d0-9229-3cd9c8496e22","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/82.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[545509],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEBRD trims Egypt\u2019s growth outlook for 2022 + FinMin mulling price of oil in 2022-2023 budget - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/03\/ebrd-trims-egypts-growth-outlook-for-2022-finmin-mulling-price-of-oil-in-2022-2023-budget\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EBRD trims Egypt\u2019s growth outlook for 2022 + FinMin mulling price of oil in 2022-2023 budget\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"EBRD trims Egypt 2022 growth outlook on inflation concerns: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded Egypt\u2019s 2022 growth outlook due to rising food and energy price inflation caused by the conflict in Ukraine. 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The EBRD now sees overall growth across its seven regions slowing to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":661543,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/02\/ebrd-trims-egypts-2025-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":545515,"position":1},"title":"EBRD trims Egypt\u2019s 2025 growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 March 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The EBRD now sees the economy growing at a 4.2% clip in 2025","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":555217,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/07\/ebrd-raises-egypts-fy-2021-2022-growth-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":545515,"position":2},"title":"EBRD raises Egypt\u2019s FY 2021-2022 growth outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"EBRD is more optimistic about Egypt\u2019s growth outlook: Egypt\u2019s economy is on track to grow 4.9% in FY2021-2022, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report (pdf) on Thursday. This is an upwards revision of 0.4 percentage points from the bank\u2019s June\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/345.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586788,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/17\/ebrd-downgrades-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":545515,"position":3},"title":"EBRD downgrades Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"EBRD forecasts growth slowing to 4% for FY 2022-23","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/963.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544686,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":545515,"position":4},"title":"The Russia-Ukraine war will curb our economic growth and hit the budget \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In case Ahmed Kouchouk\u2019s warning wasn\u2019t enough, the IMF also thinks emerging markets including Egypt will need to hedge against the economic risks associated with the war in Ukraine, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 15:43). 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