{"id":544714,"date":"2022-03-17T04:00:22","date_gmt":"2022-03-17T04:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/17\/imf-program-rate-hikes-in-the-cards-as-ukraine-war-pressures-budget-fitch\/"},"modified":"2022-03-17T04:00:22","modified_gmt":"2022-03-17T04:00:22","slug":"imf-program-rate-hikes-in-the-cards-as-ukraine-war-pressures-budget-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/17\/imf-program-rate-hikes-in-the-cards-as-ukraine-war-pressures-budget-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF program + rate hikes in the cards as Ukraine war pressures budget -Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Fitch sees new IMF program, rate hike as Ukraine conflict raises pressure on gov\u2019t<\/strong> finances:<\/strong> Lower tourism inflows, higher food prices and tighter financial conditions driven by the war in Ukraine will put pressure on Egypt\u2019s fiscal position, increasing the likelihood of Egypt taking on new funding from the International Monetary Fund and a CBE rate hike, Fitch Ratings said in a note<\/a> yesterday. \u201cWe now believe another funded IMF programme is likely and expect the CBE to raise the policy interest rate\u201d when it meets on 24 March as the government looks to support its external position, the ratings agency wrote. It also suggested that Egypt could look to GCC countries for financing support.<\/p>\n

Deficit ambitions on pause:<\/strong> \u201cFood price inflation and higher interest rates could complicate efforts to reduce the general government deficit,\u201d the ratings agency said. Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk said this week<\/a> that the budget deficit won\u2019t narrow as much as previously hoped, and now expects it to end the fiscal year at 6.9%, down from 7.2% in FY 2020-2021. The government had targeted a 6.7% deficit before the crisis in Ukraine erupted.<\/p>\n

The problem:<\/strong> Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine threatens the supply of some 80% of our wheat imports, as well as tourism inflows from two of our most important tourism markets in volume, flagging concerns from multiple financial organizations, including the IMF<\/a> earlier this week. The spillover effect of grain price hikes is already apparent here at home, with global price hikes threatening to cost the government<\/a> up to EGP 15 bn this fiscal year in additional wheat import costs and perhaps the same to buy more domestic wheat (as we note above). The government is also moving to control prices<\/a> of unsubsidized bread and raise the purchase price of domestic wheat.<\/p>\n

REMINDER- Egypt is not yet in talks with the IMF for a support program, <\/strong>both Planning Minister Hala El Said<\/a> and IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour<\/a> said this week.<\/p>\n

More and more analysts are expecting an interest rate hike:<\/strong> Ahly Pharos<\/a> also expects the CBE to hike rates by 150 bps, while EFG Hermes\u2019s Mohamed Abu Basha<\/a> is forecasting a 100 bps hike. Naeem Brokerage<\/a> sees the central bank raising rates by at least 50 bps. The monetary policy committee will meet next Thursday, 24 March.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fitch sees new IMF program, rate hike as Ukraine conflict raises pressure on gov\u2019t finances: Lower tourism inflows, higher food prices and tighter financial conditions driven by the war in Ukraine will put pressure on Egypt\u2019s fiscal position, increasing the likelihood of Egypt taking on new funding from the International Monetary Fund and a CBE […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":544715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[279,104,72,8565,272,182,349,1341,238],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-544714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-budget-watch","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-russia-ukraine-conflict","tag-tourism","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a92a08da-f581-4d71-87cc-9c335849d469","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/221.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[544708],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nIMF program + rate hikes in the cards as Ukraine war pressures budget -Fitch - 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The agencies attributed their affirmed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/351.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554015,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/16\/fitch-thinks-egypt-could-be-up-for-another-imf-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":544714,"position":1},"title":"Fitch thinks Egypt could be up for another IMF program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s high exposure to external financing could lead the government to seek a fresh IMF program, especially in the event of a \u201cliquidity shock,\u201d according to a recent Fitch Ratings report. The report points to less accommodative global liquidity and monetary conditions as being key risk factors for Egypt, despite\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/363.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577097,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/09\/fitch-cuts-outlook-on-egypt-to-negative-affirms-b-rating\/","url_meta":{"origin":544714,"position":2},"title":"Fitch cuts outlook on Egypt to negative, affirms B+ rating","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has cut its outlook on Egyptian debt from \u201cstable\u201d to \u201cnegative\u201d due to \u201cdeterioration\u201d in the country\u2019s external liquidity position, it said yesterday. The rating agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B+ rating on robust economic growth and \u201cstrong international support\u201d from Gulf allies and multilateral partners but warned that it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/154.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":654430,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/03\/fitch-upgrades-our-credit-rating-to-b-citing-greater-confidence-in-structural-reforms\/","url_meta":{"origin":544714,"position":3},"title":"Fitch upgrades our credit rating to \u2018B\u2019 citing greater confidence in structural reforms","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 November 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ratings agency cited an inflow of FDI, our commitment to maintaining a flexible exchange rate, and fiscal consolidation as driving the decision","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1034.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":633153,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/28\/interest-rate-cuts-came-on-the-back-of-improved-macro-economic-stability-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":544714,"position":4},"title":"Interest rate cuts came on the back of improved macro-economic stability - Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cEgypt's first interest rate cut since exchange rate liberalization has been made possible by an improvement in macro-economic stability, underpinned by more orthodox policy settings under the country's IMF program,\u201d Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday. The CBE\u2019s 100 bps rate cut earlier this month came on the back of annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544714\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/544708"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544714"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=544714"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=544714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}