{"id":544686,"date":"2022-03-16T04:00:15","date_gmt":"2022-03-16T04:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf\/"},"modified":"2022-03-16T04:00:15","modified_gmt":"2022-03-16T04:00:15","slug":"the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"The Russia-Ukraine war will curb our economic growth and hit the budget \u2013IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> In case Ahmed Kouchouk\u2019s warning wasn\u2019t enough, the IMF also thinks emerging markets including Egypt will need to hedge against the economic risks <\/strong>associated with the war in Ukraine<\/strong>, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 15:43<\/a>). Egypt\u2019s budget will likely face pressure on the back of surging commodity prices, while the decline in tourists from Ukraine and Russia \u2014 two of our most important tourism markets in volume terms \u2014 will affect economic growth, he said.<\/p>\n

What does the IMF recommend? <\/strong>We need to focus on food security issues resulting from our reliance on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports, according to Azour, and protect the most vulnerable in society by widening the social safety net. This needs to come hand in hand with measures to both curb inflation and reach our targeted 1.5% primary surplus<\/a> for the current fiscal year.<\/p>\n

What food security issue?<\/strong> Russia and Ukraine together account for 80% of our wheat import. The spillover effect of grain price hikes is already apparent here at home, with global price hikes threatening to cost the government<\/a> up to EGP 15 bn this fiscal year in additional wheat import costs. The price of unsubsidized bread has doubled since the war broke out, and the government is soon to impose price controls on unsubsidized bread (see story below) and raised the price it will pay farmers for what it buys during this year\u2019s domestic harvest.<\/p>\n

The war is also threatening about a third of <\/strong>our inbound tourism market <\/strong>by volume. IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva also pointed to<\/a> the threat the war poses to our tourism industry last week, noting that it \u201cwill be sharply hit by the collapse of the Ukrainian and Russian markets.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the bright-ish side:<\/strong> \u201cThe development of Egypt\u2019s oil and gas industry will help it weather the volatile price hikes of oil due to the war,\u201d Azour said. Oil Minister Tarek El Molla made a similar suggestion recently, saying that gas exports could compensate for part of the cost of importing oil and petroleum products. Oil has soared to 14-year highs over the past few weeks due to the war, hitting USD 130<\/a> last week before sliding more than 20%<\/a> on hopes that Russia and Ukraine were moving towards a peace agreement.<\/p>\n

Egypt has not yet approached the IMF with requests for a support package<\/strong>, Azour said, confirming comments<\/a> by Planning Minister Hala El Said earlier in the week. We last secured from the lender a USD 12 bn facility<\/a> tied to much-needed economic reforms amid the EGP flotation, followed by another<\/a> USD 8 bn to support the economy through the pandemic.<\/p>\n

Expect the IMF to cut our growth forecast next month:<\/strong> The IMF will likely be revising downwards its forecasts for MENA countries\u2019 economic growth, Azour said, echoing comments made by Georgieva last week, who said it will downgrade its global growth outlook<\/a> in response to the conflict. The Fund currently expects the Egyptian economy to grow at a 5.6% clip this fiscal year<\/a>. It will publish its latest World Economic Outlook ahead of its Spring Meetings in April.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In case Ahmed Kouchouk\u2019s warning wasn\u2019t enough, the IMF also thinks emerging markets including Egypt will need to hedge against the economic risks associated with the war in Ukraine, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 15:43). Egypt\u2019s budget will likely face pressure on the back of surging […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":544687,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,272,1095],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-544686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-russia-ukraine-war","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fc12dd88-de36-4c18-a858-3f4794a3a58d","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/202.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[544680],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe Russia-Ukraine war will curb our economic growth and hit the budget \u2013IMF - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Russia-Ukraine war will curb our economic growth and hit the budget \u2013IMF\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In case Ahmed Kouchouk\u2019s warning wasn\u2019t enough, the IMF also thinks emerging markets including Egypt will need to hedge against the economic risks associated with the war in Ukraine, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 15:43). 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Azour did not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/388.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544714,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/17\/imf-program-rate-hikes-in-the-cards-as-ukraine-war-pressures-budget-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":544686,"position":2},"title":"IMF program + rate hikes in the cards as Ukraine war pressures budget -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch sees new IMF program, rate hike as Ukraine conflict raises pressure on gov\u2019t finances: Lower tourism inflows, higher food prices and tighter financial conditions driven by the war in Ukraine will put pressure on Egypt\u2019s fiscal position, increasing the likelihood of Egypt taking on new funding from the International\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548131,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/27\/imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":544686,"position":3},"title":"IMF is \u201cgloomy and uncertain\u201d on global economy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has revised downwards its global growth outlook for this year and next, warning that gathering headwinds are pushing the world closer to recession. In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":609402,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/05\/economic-growth-almost-halves-to-3-8-in-22-23-planning-ministry\/","url_meta":{"origin":544686,"position":4},"title":"Economic growth almost halves to 3.8% in 22-23 \u2013Planning Ministry","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 November 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt recorded growth of 3.8% in FY 22-23, with forecasts for FY 2023-24 at 4.2%","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/11\/135.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546006,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/20\/imf-upgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-in-2022-despite-a-significant-slowdown-globally\/","url_meta":{"origin":544686,"position":5},"title":"IMF upgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in 2022 despite a \u201csignificant slowdown\u201d globally","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has cut its global GDP forecast for this year and the next as surging inflation and economic fallout from the war in Ukraine hit growth prospects. The Fund revised downwards its growth projections for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook \u2014 that\u2019s 0.8\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/335.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544686\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/544680"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544686"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=544686"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=544686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}